Michigan Turning Point: Does Dillon still have realistic path to playoffs?

pat decola

Thu, Aug 15, 2024, 12:39 p.m.·6 min read

Here‘s what‘s happening in the world of NASCAR with Richmond in the rearview and Michigan (Mon., 11 a.m. ET, USA) up next.

THE LINEUP ️

1️⃣ Does Austin Dillon still have realistic path to playoffs?

2️⃣ Could we see another surprise at Michigan?

3️⃣ Around the Track: Manufacturer pride on line at Michigan

4️⃣ Will Martin finally make it happen at Michigan?

5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

1. Does Austin Dillon still have a realistic path to playoffs?

Despite sinking back to sub-30th in the standings, there’s still a chance we see No. 3 in the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs.

Who would‘ve thought the most controversial victory in the history of the No. 3 Chevrolet would be with Austin Dillon behind the wheel?

The now five-time Cup Series winner stirred up controversy following his aggressively dramatic victory at Richmond Raceway this past Sunday. What could have been a crowning achievement and a wholly unexpected playoff surprise quickly morphed into a contentious debate before NASCAR officials ruled Wednesday that Dillon was ineligible for the playoffs based on the Richmond result.

With four playoff spots back on the table, it begs the question — will Dillon find his way back into one of them?

With just three regular-season races left — Michigan, Daytona and Darlington — No. 3‘s path to the playoffs becomes a high-stakes chess match, now with a target on his back after drawing the ire of Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and beyond (even 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick showed Dillon, his former teammate, displeasure on the cooldown lap.)

First up is Monday‘s race at Michigan (11 a.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), a 2-mile oval where Dillon has had moderate success. The larger tracks on the circuit have tended to be his bread-and-butter at times, and five top 10s in the Irish Hills are tied for fourth-most at any track for him, with a pair of top-fives tied for third on his career resume. A 2018 trip there in the Xfinity Series resulted in a visit to Victory Lane, so it‘s possible he once again flips the playoffs and wins Monday.

Daytona comes the week after, a track known for its unpredictability and the potential for surprise winners — only Dillon wouldn‘t be a surprise winner if he takes the checkered flag there. The 2018 Daytona 500 winner is not only a threat every time the series heads to a superspeedway, but he‘s also won this race before in a similar position — from below the elimination line to propel himself into the 2022 playoffs.

That win at Daytona came when he was 262 points below the bubble, the largest deficit overcome in history, save for Kyle Busch‘s 2015 playoff entrance when he was 327 points out after missing the first 11 races due to injury.

(Worth noting — Dillon was 265 points below the elimination line heading into Richmond.)

If we make it to the regular-season finale at Darlington and Dillon failed to clinch at the previous two races, that might just about do it for his postseason chances, however. We‘ve seen unsung winners at “The Track Too Tough to Tame,” but the No. 3 driver has plenty of history at the track and has never led a single lap in 16 starts. That said, a 2020 runner-up suggests he can at least find the front of the field … but this is a driver that mostly hasn‘t sniffed the lead all year, with his 35 circuits out front at Richmond being his first laps led all season.

ryan blaney and joey logano share a laugh

2. Could we see another surprise at Michigan?

With manufacturer emphasis and bragging rights at stake, along with a potential playoff spot, the 2-mile track could see drama of its own.

And now to shift gears — because, amazingly, we‘re just a few days away from Michigan potentially slotting in another surprise playoff contender or more drama bubbling to the surface as the postseason pressure mounts.

Michigan doesn‘t scream “wild-card race” — but ask yourself, before last weekend, did Richmond?

MORE: Analysis: Playoff picture altered again after Richmond penalties

Regardless of Dillon‘s eventual playoff-berth revocation, he still had a fast car all weekend, seemingly out of nowhere relative to the rest of the season, and it‘s possible another dark-horse team spent its two-week Olympic break focusing on Michigan.

Ford has been the manufacturer to beat at Michigan, having won the last nine races there, five of which have come at the hands of now-retired Kevin Harvick. His former team Stewart-Haas Racing, with four Ford drivers in its stable itching to make the playoffs, likely has this race circled on the proverbial shop calendar and could be competitive despite a disappointing season to date.

However, only one of the last 11 Michigan races was won by a driver securing his first victory of the season, so a surprise winner might not be likely.

The lengthy Ford streak is also the longest ever by a single make at Michigan, and the significance of the Heritage Trophy, awarded to the winning manufacturer, is not lost on blue-oval drivers. Team Penske‘s Ryan Blaney emphasized the importance of keeping the trophy in the Motor City.

“We take a lot of pride in that trophy, the Heritage Trophy, and obviously Ford from being right there, it’s really important,” the reigning champ said recently. “Edsel (Ford II) definitely makes sure that we know that it is important that we keep that there in Detroit at their home base. I was fortunate enough to win there a few years ago (2021) and have Edsel there and see that excitement in him, so yeah, it’d be important to keep the streak going. Hopefully we can at least make a run at it and keep that trophy where it belongs.”

Toyota-backed Joe Gibbs Racing finds itself in an unusual position at Michigan. Despite winning the last five stages at this track, JGR has been winless in the last 13 Michigan races, with 91 wins on 23 different tracks since its last victory in the Irish Hills. Martin Truex Jr. is still in need of clinching his playoff berth, and it‘s possible it finally happens this weekend, along with his first career Michigan win — more on him below.

This season has seen seven drivers end winless streaks of at least 42 races, tying the record set in 2010 and 2013, and Michigan has been a place where eight drivers have historically broken winless streaks of at least 41 races.

If your ears are ringing right now, Kyle Busch, you know why.

3. Around the Track: Manufacturer pride on line at Michigan

The annual NASCAR trip to Michigan International Speedway means bragging rights are at stake in the birth state of Ford and Chevrolet.

4. Will Martin finally make it happen at Michigan?

Martin Truex Jr. needs a win badly, and owns the longest active top-10 streak at Michigan — but he’s never won there. He’s come close, though, and his runner-ups at the track have him in the history books.

Most runner-up finishes at a track without a win

Driver	Runner-ups	Track
Mark Martin	7	Pocono
Bobby Allison	6	Martinsville
Harry Gant	5	Rockingham
Terry Labonte	5	Daytona
Martin Truex Jr.	4	Michigan
Marvin Panch	4	Martinsville
Benny Parsons	4	Martinsville
Ricky Rudd	4	Bristol
Matt Kenseth	4	Indianapolis