Matthew Savoie Ready For a Surprisingly Big Rookie Season
With the departures of Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway this summer, the Edmonton Oilers have lost a good amount of speed and youth from what was already an old roster. While the top six seems to be settled heading into the season, the bottom part of the lineup might have a tougher time scoring goals.
Enter Matthew Savoie.
Acquired by Edmonton in exchange for the speedy McLeod, the St. Albert-born Savoie was selected 9th overall in 2022 by the Buffalo Sabres. Despite struggling with injuries, Savoie was one of the most productive players in the WHL over the past couple seasons. He notched 166 points in 96 games after being drafted. He also put up 53 points in 38 playoff games in Winnipeg and Moose Jaw.
If you take a forward top-10, you believe it's possible they make the NHL and do well by D+2.
Matthew Savoie hasn't done that. Many high-end outcomes forecasted for him on draft day have already been disproven.
Great prospect, but IMO his value has decreased since draft day. pic.twitter.com/tRRJP5Y0QP— Patrick Bacon (@TopDownHockey) July 6, 2024
Because of his age, Savoie wasn't able to play in the AHL until a six-game cup of coffee in Rochester (and one in Buffalo) at the end of last season. For all intents and purposes, Savoie enters his age-20 season as a first year pro. While it's expected he'll begin the season in Bakersfield, he'll get every chance to make the Oilers this pre-season. What might he do when he gets here?
Though it's rare for a 20-year-old to jump straight from major junior to NHL stardom, it's far from unheard of. One such player serves as a painful reminder for Oilers fans: Mathew Barzal.
Matthew Savoie Comparable: Mathew Barzal
Drafted 16th overall in 2015, with the pick the Oilers traded for Griffin Reinhart, Barzal tore up the WHL in his next two seasons and playoff runs with the Seattle Thunderbirds before getting a two-game audition on Long Island, much like Savoie. Heading into 2017-18, Barzal was a highly rated, though not elite prospect, ranked as the 25th best drafted prospect by The Hockey Writers. For reference, Savoie was ranked as the league's 42nd-best prospect for this season by The Athletic's Scott Wheeler.
That year, Barzal exploded for 85 points in 82 games on his way to a Calder Trophy. While that might be out of reach for Savoie since he obviously won't be the team's first-line centre like Barzal, it shows a possible path. Both players are fast and skilled, with experience leading WHL championship teams.
One advantage Barzal has over Savoie is size: he's listed at 6'1" to Savoie's 5'9". One player who resembles Savoie a little more physically, if not stylistically, is someone GM Stan Bowman knows well: Alex DeBrincat.
Alex DeBrincat
Drafted 39th overall in 2016, the 5'8" winger scored over 100 points in each of his three OHL seasons. In his final season with the Erie Otters, DeBrincat scored 65 goals and 127 points in just 63 games, leading the Otters to an OHL championship just like Savoie and Barzal. A year younger than Savoie and Barzal at the time of his debut, DeBrincat notched 28 goals and 52 points in his rookie year before breaking out with 41 goals the following year.
Like DeBrincat, Savoie is small, fast, skilled, and plays with a tenacious ferocity that makes up for his diminutive frame. If he can find chemistry with one of the Oilers' top dogs like DeBrincat did with Patrick Kane, they'll have a true gem on their hands.
One last encouraging comp for Savoie is, unfortunately, a tragic one. Johnny Gaudreau, who died along with his brother in an accident last night, was drafted 104th overall in 2011. In three years at Boston College, "Johnny Hockey" became a BC legend, winning the Hobey Baker Award in his final season with 80 points in 40 games. The next year, at age 21, Gaudreau notched 64 points on his way to a third-place Calder finish.
That was of course only the beginning, as Gaudreau went on to become one of the league's best and most entertaining wingers. The two former Dubuque Fighting Saints carry very similar profiles: diminutive offensive dynamos equally as comfortable shooting, passing, or carrying the puck.
While it would be a stretch to give Savoie the same lofty 115-point ceiling, he doesn't need to do that to be effective. While some scouts worry that he doesn't profile as a play-driver in the NHL, that's less important on a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Judging by the acquisitions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, the Oilers have no issues with small, offence-heavy wingers in their top six.
If Savoie can find his way onto the opening night roster, it will be because the team believes he can provide offence. To that end, he could fit in alongside one of McDavid or Draisaitl, or help lengthen the lineup alongside Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on a third scoring line.
The examples of Barzal, DeBrincat, Gaudreau, and others such as Kyle Connor, Max Domi, and Trevor Zegras show that players of Savoie's size, background, and pedigree can still become stars even if they don't debut before age 20. The rest is up to him.
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