Maresca’s Chelsea xG drops 28% on last season – but Blues better off in only stat that matters

Chelsea are 4 games into the new Premier League season, and we’re already keen to start studying the stats to see if we’ve improved on last season after another manager change and another summer spent buying and selling.

So far this season, the Blues managed 1 xG against Man City, 1.6 against Wolves, 2.4 against Crystal Palace and 0.8 against Bournemouth. That gives a total of 5.8 from our opening 4 games.

Last season, it was 1.3 against Liverpool, 2.3 against West Ham, 2.2 against Luton and 2.3 against Nottingham Forest, for a total of 8.1.

That’s a 28% drop, from very comparable fixtures to our mind.

The xG against from those games last season totalled 4.3, while this season it’s been 4.9, so it’s not like we’ve traded some threat for defensive stability. So we’re weaker on that front too.

Despite that, we’ve managed two wins, a draw and a defeat this time out, while last time it was two defeats, a draw and a win. Which, depending on your view, shows that xG isn’t a useful stat, or just that football is full of randomness.

Results are all that matter as Blues look to build momentum

Our issues last season was that we didn’t really get going until the 2-0 win over Fulham in matchweek 7 – when Cole Palmer started to become influential. If we can get to that same point this year with more points in the bag and see a similar improvement, we’ll be in a much better position come the end of the season.

But there’s no doubt that those xG stats are not ideal especially in terms of creating chances. Our next three games before the international break – at West Ham then at home to Brighton and Nottingham Forest – should give us the chance to build an even bigger gap over last year’s results, where we managed just 4 points from matchweeks 5-8.