Yahoo Sports March Madness betting bracket: Bettors love UConn to cover (or San Diego State to win)
UConn looked great in beating Miami, and oddsmakers didn't account for that enough when setting the opening line for the national championship game.
The opening spread for UConn vs. San Diego State was Huskies -6. That was bet up almost immediately to -7.5. Seeing UConn dominate all tournament, before it goes against a Mountain West team making its first-ever appearance in the NCAA tournament championship game, gave bettors a lot of confidence in the Huskies.
It has led to an interesting split in bets for the national championship game. Bettors are either loading up on UConn laying the points or San Diego State on the moneyline.
Will UConn or San Diego State cover?
UConn is an overwhelming pick among spread bettors. Of all the money bet on the point spread at BetMGM for the national championship game, 81% is on UConn. That's why the line moved.
Among moneyline bets, it's a much different story.
Most bettors don't like laying huge odds on a moneyline favorite. UConn is -375 to win, meaning a $375 bet wins just $100. But if you like San Diego State to cover, the moneyline odds are enticing. The Aztecs are +300 to win straight up.
Even though 81 percent of the money bet on the point spread is on the UConn side, San Diego State +300 is the most popular bet for Monday night's game at BetMGM, in terms of number of tickets. That means a lot of money is on the Huskies and the spread, and a lot of smaller bets are on SDSU to win.
UConn was popular future bet
Sportsbooks probably don't mind the SDSU moneyline bets. They need to even out the exposure on UConn future bets.
As a weird tournament unfolded, UConn became a popular bet in the future market. The Huskies took over as the team with the highest amount of money on them to win the NCAA tournament. At BetMGM, 15.2% of all the money bet on the NCAA tournament winner is on UConn.
As UConn blew out opponents, top seeds fell and bets came in on the Huskies, their odds kept getting shorter. Here's how UConn's odds have changed from the beginning of the season through the tournament at BetMGM:
Open: +6600
First round: +1800
Sweet 16: +900
Final Four: -125
Championship: -375
With all the bets on UConn -7.5 and San Diego State moneyline, sportsbooks will be rooting for one thing on Monday night: A Huskies win by seven or fewer points.
