Maple Leafs power play could look different as sands shift around 'Core Four'

The Toronto Maple Leafs are often accused of suffering from a flawed team blueprint, but the one thing their top-heavy structure should reliably produce is power-play success.

The Maple Leafs are heavily invested in four elite forwards and in an era when the vast majority of power-play units feature just one defenceman, rolling out Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares seems like a logical recipe for explosive 5-on-4 offence.

For the most part, Toronto has delivered on that promise. Since Tavares joined the team in 2018-19, the Maple Leafs' power play ranks fourth in the NHL, scoring on 24.0% of its opportunities.

In the last two seasons they've been even better, finishing first or second in the NHL in power-play efficiency during both campaigns and posting the two highest PP% marks in franchise history.

That record doesn't suggest the Maple Leafs need to overhaul what they do with the man advantage, but it looks like a mini shakeup is coming their way — for better or worse.

The new sheriff in town

While the Maple Leafs retained bench boss Sheldon Keefe, the assistant coach most responsible for the team's elite power play over the last two years — Spencer Carbery — has moved on to Washington. While Carbery had excellent ingredients to work with, Toronto's best special teams unit was spectacular under his watch.

On Thursday, the Maple Leafs announced Carbery's replacement, Guy Boucher.

The 51-year-old former coach of the Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning held down an NHL coaching role for six seasons. Here's how his teams fared on the power play in those years, with their 5-on-5 goal ranking to give a sense of the offensive talent on the squads in question:

There are plenty of variables at play here, including the assistants under Boucher during his two head-coaching stints. That said, there isn't much evidence to suggest the newest member of Toronto's staff can elevate the success of power-play units above their expected output.

Because the Maple Leafs were so successful under Carbery, hiring an upgrade always seemed more or less out of the question. Boucher's track record doesn't suggest he's the guy to find another level for this already-elite unit.

From a stylistic standpoint, one thing that stands out about the power plays that Boucher presided over in the past is that they tended to have a scoring focal point.

During his three years in Tampa Bay, Steven Stamkos scored almost twice as many power-play goals (39) as the team's second-best power-play scorer, Vincent Lecavalier (22). The same was true in Ottawa with Mike Hoffman (21) easily topping Matt Duchene (13) as the top threat.

Under Carbery's guidance over the last two years, Matthews (29) and Tavares (28) have shared the scoring load with Nylander not too far behind (22). With Boucher in the mix it's possible the Maple Leafs try to funnel a higher percentage of the looks to Matthews.

The Morgan Rielly vs. John Klingberg debate

Although Rielly is a competent power-play quarterback — and the Maple Leafs know that he works well alongside their top four forwards — there's an argument to be made for installing Klingberg as the sole defenceman on their first unit.

Much of what makes Rielly effective as an offensive player is his ability to join the rush, a willingness to carry the puck to dangerous areas, and an accurate wrist shot. Those are good qualities, but they aren't always applicable as a power-play point man, which often leaves Rielly as a pure facilitator.

Klingberg offers a bit more of a threat from the point as he carries a heavier shot than Rielly. His career shooting percentage (6.6%) is significantly better than Rielly's (4.7%), and he's scored eight more goals than the longtime Maple Leaf in 98 fewer games.

The veteran Swede is also more potent from long range as he has almost four times as many slap-shot goals in his career (15) than Rielly (4), who almost never lights the lamp on plays like this:

That's not the type of shot the Maple Leafs power play should be built around, but it's something that teams have to account for when Klingberg is on the ice. Because Tavares is one of the best puck deflectors in the NHL, having a defenceman who is more of a threat to shoot from the point could have its advantages.

Comparing Klingberg and Rielly, it's clear the former has been more dynamic on a per-60 basis over the course of his career.

Despite those numbers, there's still a strong case to be made for Rielly. It's possible the Maple Leafs are best served by a defenceman who plays a supporting role on the power play and lets the forwards dominate the puck.

Klingberg would bring a different element, but it remains to be seen if it's an element this group needs.

The new forwards

While the forwards on the team's top unit may seem locked in, the team's willingness to experiment with Ryan O'Reilly on PP1 last season showed that mixing things up isn't out of the question.

Tyler Bertuzzi was a power-play force in his playoff cameo with the Boston Bruins and Max Domi got 36.7% of his points with the man advantage in a featured offensive role with the Chicago Blackhawks last season.

It will be tough for either forward to break through unless the team needs a shakeup because what each does best could be considered redundant with a higher-profile Maple Leaf. Bertuzzi is an excellent netfront presence, but it'd be hard to argue that he's better than Tavares. Domi is an underrated setup man, but he's no Marner.

Bertuzzi is more likely to break through if the Maple Leafs deploy Tavares in more of a bumper role with Matthews and Marner on the sides and a defenceman at the point. That could give the new Maple Leaf a chance to do his thing in front of the net and bump Nylander down to PP2. In a world where Nylander gets traded, that's also the most logical configuration.

Even if the Maple Leafs go with a Core Four plus Rielly/Klingberg as the first unit, Bertuzzi and Domi figure to anchor the second group. Last season the players outside of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares who got the most power-play time were Michael Bunting, Rasmus Sandin, Calle Jarnkrok, Alexander Kerfoot and Pierre Engvall. Only Jarnkrok remains with the team.

While upgrading on 2022-23's PP1 would be tough to do, PP2 is shaping up to be more potent. The Maple Leafs will be able to feature Bertuzzi, Domi, whichever defenceman isn't on the first unit and some combination of Jarnkrok, Matthew Knies and Nick Robertson.

However that group shakes out, it has some potential — thanks in large part to Bertuzzi and Domi.