What If The Maple Leafs And Avalanche Swapped Their NHL Superstar Pending UFAs?

In the NHL’s salary cap era, the framework for trade-deadline deals is pretty consistent.

Deadline acquisitions run the gamut from stars to role players, but they’re not all impending UFAs. Last year, the Vegas Golden Knights snapped up six-plus seasons of Tomas Hertl from the San Jose Sharks.

In recent years, many teams in the Cup hunt have treated their UFAs as ‘own rentals,’ knowing they may lose them on July 1. Sometimes, the player re-signs, as Sam Reinhart did with the Florida Panthers after winning last season. Sometimes they don't. That list is a lot longer.

With the salary cap set to spike, this year’s crop of UFAs will try to reset the market. According to Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos, that’s the sticking point that has prevented the Colorado Avalanche from completing an extension with their super sniper, Mikko Rantanen.

The vultures are apparently circling, seeing if they might be able to pry Rantanen away. The Avalanche have resisted all advances thus far. But if they hit a permanent impasse, they’d need to look for a return that could help their Cup case this season to justify making a deal — especially after having already addressed their subpar goaltending by bringing in Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood.

It's a major long shot, but that’s the road that leads to Mitch Marner.

Also a pending UFA, Marner's negotiations with the Toronto Maple Leafs are being conducted under a cone of silence. But the Leafs are at the stage where they want to stop doing the same thing and expecting a different result. So...maybe?

Performance-wise, both teams are in a rut right now. The Leafs have lost three in a row and were booed off the ice in their last two home games. And while the Avs are 2-2 in their last four games, coach Jared Bednar called his group ‘unimpressive’ after its 3-2 win over the New York Rangers on Tuesday.

Again, let’s reiterate: everything we know about how the NHL operates suggests this 1-for-1 swap won’t happen.

But while we wait for the blockbuster deals of 2025 to dazzle us, let’s enjoy this thought exercise and imagine that it could.

Rantanen And Marner Are Very Comparable

Rantanen and Marner have remarkably similar profiles. Even this year, Rantanen is fifth in the Art Ross Trophy race with 61 points, and Marner is sixth at 60.

They’re both right wingers and were drafted just six spots apart in 2015. Marner went fourth, and Rantanen went 10th.

Nearly 10 years later, Marner has played 621 games, and Rantanen has played just six fewer, at 615. Their overall production is also pretty close: Marner has 699 points, and Rantanen has 678.

Their average ice time is 20:28 a game for Rantanen and 19:59 for Marner.

Both players are currently wrapping up six-year deals. Marner’s cap hit is $10.9 million, so he’ll have made over $65 million by the end of this season. Rantanen will be at $55.5 million off his $9.25-million cap hit.

Rantanen does enjoy a more favorable tax rate, though. At a $3-million salary for a single player with no dependents, taxes are an estimated 43.29 percent in Colorado compared to 52.32 percent in Toronto by cross-border tax expert Mark Feigenbaum from KPMG. Based on those numbers and other assumptions, their take-home pay would also be pretty even.

Related: 'It’s Not Three Games, Willy — It’s Eight Years': Why Ignoring The Boos Is The Wrong Approach For The Maple Leafs

The Differences

Both right wingers, Rantanen is a left shot, and Marner shoots right. NHL Edge data shows that Rantanen is a much more effective scorer from the right side of the offensive zone.

Rantanen is also more of a shooter. He has 287 goals in his career compared to Marner’s 208, and his career shooting percentage is 16.4 percent, compared to 13.0 percent for Marner.

Rantanen has also averaged about 20 more shots per year or a quarter of a shot per game.

According to NHL Edge, though, Rantanen’s 127 shots this year put him in the 95th percentile. His accuracy is also the highest of his career, at 19.7 percent. That’s good for the 90th percentile, so, all told, his 25 goals have him in the 99th percentile — tied for fifth in the NHL.

As for Marner, he’s the stronger skater. At six feet and 180 pounds, he’s four inches shorter and 35 pounds lighter than Rantanen, and that manifests in a top speed that’s in the league’s 97th percentile and skating distance in the 99th.

Marner’s more of a playmaker, of course. His 491 career assists are exactly 100 more than Rantanen. And while he’s known for his two-way acumen, the difference there isn’t as pronounced as you might think.

Per hockey-reference.com, Marner’s ‘expected plus-minus’ at 5-on-5 outranks Rantanen 105.1 to 81.5 over their full careers. But this year, Rantanen actually has the better rate of 12.4, compared to 7.0 for Marner.

Related: Is Toronto Maple Leafs Star Mitch Marner Worth A Larger Cap Hit Than Other 'Core Four' Players?

The Playoffs

While the bottom line for Marner and Rantanen is pretty even in the regular season, there’s a larger contrast in the playoffs.

Rantanen, of course, has a Stanley Cup ring from 2022 but hasn’t been past the second round in any other year. Marner has just one second-round appearance.

Marner has 11 goals and 50 points in 57 playoff games, while Rantanen has 34 goals and 101 points in 81 playoff games.

What stands out is that Rantanen’s overall rate of production has increased from 1.10 to 1.25 points per game at playoff time, while Marner’s has dipped from 1.13 to 0.88.

The Fit

The Leafs’ improved commitment to defense looks like a good recipe for better playoff results. But they’re also scoring just 3.02 goals per game — their lowest rate in the Auston Matthews era. On top of his hot stick, Rantanen’s proven post-season jam could provide a spark that finally lights the Maple Leafs’ flame.

The same could be true for Marner in Denver — away from the intense scrutiny of his hometown and working alongside talents like Cale Makar and the ever-intense Nathan MacKinnon.

Both players are top stars and would be missed by their current teams. But if they’re not going to sign extensions before the deadline, aren’t you just a little bit curious to see how they’d fit in new surroundings?

Get the latest news and trending stories by saving The Hockey News’ latest content on Google News and by subscribing to The Hockey News newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or by visiting our forum.