How many games will Kentucky football win in 2024? Here’s what local reporters think.

Odds-makers have set the over/under for Kentucky football wins at 6.5 this season.

That number makes sense considering the Wildcats are coming off back-to-back 7-6 seasons but face a schedule with four daunting SEC road trips this fall. Add in the uncertainty about the offense with a new coordinator and quarterback and it’s easy to be skeptical of Mark Stoops’ team dramatically improving its recent results.

But where should you fall on the over/under question? The Herald-Leader polled local reporters who regularly cover the football Wildcats for their predictions.

Herald-Leader staff picks

John Clay: Kentucky will finish 7-5. Like the roster, not the schedule.

Cameron Drummond: 7-5. The list of unknowns for the 2024 UK football season is lengthy. How will a talented, yet completely unproven, transfer quarterback in Brock Vandagriff fare? What does a Bush Hamdan offense that wants to play faster look like? Can a Kentucky defense with several standout players, led by Deone Walker, play up to its potential against the SEC’s elite teams? There are just too many question marks, right now, to have confidence in a truly special season for the Wildcats. The Week 8 trip to Florida will tell us a lot about the ceiling of this UK team, especially since the South Carolina game will be in the rear-view mirror by then.

Jon Hale: I think the roster is talented and deep enough that Kentucky finally breaks through against one of the playoff contenders on the schedule, but can the Wildcats avoid one of the clunkers that would have kept them out of a 12-team playoff field in 2018 or 2021? I’m skeptical with so many questions on offense. I’ll go with 8-4.

Mark Story: 8-4, 4-4 SEC. I think Kentucky has a chance to be good. Alas, a revamped SEC schedule that is far more difficult than what UK would have faced under the previous format is a limiting factor.

Kentucky media predictions

Maggie Davis (BBN Tonight): 8-4. There’s plenty of (justified) discussion about this year’s strength of schedule, specifically surrounding Kentucky’s trio of daunting road trips: Oxford, Knoxville and Austin. In my opinion, the real crux of the season comes inside Kroger Field. Handle business against South Carolina, Auburn and Louisville, and you’ve significantly helped your chances at an eight-or-more-win season.

Sierra Newton (BBN Tonight): 8-4. There’s depth without a glaring drop in talent across the board. You hear the players say their connection is stronger than ever, and coaches find “gripes” in fine-tuning rather than working from the ground up. Kentucky usually wins an ugly one and drops one they shouldn’t, but firing on all cylinders, this team looks like a real threat!

Dick Gabriel (Big Blue Insider): I’ll say eight wins for this team. Nine would be quite the accomplishment given the strength of this schedule. Kentucky needs to avoid losing any games to teams it should beat which has been a problem of late under Stoops.

Jeff Drummond (Cats Illustrated): Kentucky’s season looks to be split into four likely wins, four likely losses, and four toss-ups. The most probable outcome I see is 7-5, but that would mean the Cats need to win three of those four toss-ups and avoid an upset. Easier said than done.

Justin Rowland (Cats Illustrated): I’ve got Kentucky finishing 8-4. They could have an excellent defense and there are potential stars on both sides of the ball, but I’ve got them middle of the pack in the league instead of upper echelon.

Aaron Gershon (The Cats’ Pause): Kentucky will have to prove it for fans to believe it, but the depth of this roster leads me to an 8-4 record prediction with the losses being to Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas. However, this prediction could go off the rails if UK loses to South Carolina Week 2.

Ryan Black (The Courier-Journal): 8-4. On paper, Kentucky’s record doesn’t look like the long-awaited “next step” those in the program and the fan base so desperately desire. But in an SEC that’s become even more daunting with the additions of Oklahoma and Texas, an 8-4 mark — capped by another season-ending win over Louisville — is nothing to scoff at.

Jonathon Bruner (Kentucky Kernel): Kentucky will finish 6-6 this season. I feel that this season will be a tough one mostly due to the grueling schedule the Wildcats will have to endure. Perhaps the hardest part of this season is that Kentucky did make good moves to become a better overall football team than last year — and probably will be when it comes to stats — but unfortunately their schedule will just be too much to overcome, thus resulting in the worse record.

Sara Gibson (Kentucky Kernel): I think Kentucky is going 7-5 with a difficult schedule ahead this season. Kentucky faces SEC opponents early and will have a hard time getting a road win against conference powerhouses like Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss. As exciting and promising as the new additions and returning stars have been, I think the Cats have a hard time improving their record with a schedule this tough.

Adam Luckett (Kentucky Sports Radio): 7-5: Kentucky plays like a top 25 team for most of the season, but a brutal slate creates another five-loss season.

Matt Jones (Kentucky Sports Radio): 8-4. Losses in three tough road games and to Georgia. Key game for me is at Florida. Important to keep the wins over them coming and is difference between successful and average year.

Nick Roush (Kentucky Sports Radio): 7-5. Kentucky has the weapons to pull off a big upset. Ole Miss may be vulnerable, but they’re just as likely to win a big game as they are to lose one. Kentucky is 3-7 in its last 10 over P4 competition at home and that will come back to bite them against Auburn or Louisville.

Keith Taylor (Kentucky Today): 7-5. Kentucky’s home schedule will provide a cushion for those seven wins. It will be interesting to see how the offense develops. Sustaining drives and keeping the defense off the field as much as possible will be the key to a successful season.

Dylan Ballard (A Sea of Blue): 8-4. I think this Kentucky team has as much top-end talent as Stoops and company have ever had. I do think this schedule is as hard as we have seen in the Stoops era as well. I think the Cats win one they shouldn’t and then lose one they shouldn’t.

Larry Vaught (Vaught’s Views): With the schedule UK is facing, I will take 8-4. However, unlike some, I think this team could be a LOT better than the past two years and still only go 8-4 when you look at road games and overall strength of schedule even with what appears to be a defense that could be one of the best ever at UK.

Jordan Adams (WDKY): 7-5. Should be Stoops’ best team in a couple of years but at least four losses are all but guaranteed due to the quality of some of those teams in the SEC.

Michael Epps (WDKY): 7-5. I do think the Cats’ defense will keep them in most games this season, and the offense has the potential to put up points if they take care of the football. I think they’ll fall just short in those big games (Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss) but should win their other SEC home games.

Lyndsay Gough (WKYT): I think we will learn a lot about this Kentucky team in week two when they are thrust into conference play against South Carolina. I think this UK squad is a seven-win team this season, with losses to Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Florida (I think this is their best chance at a road dub in conference), at Tennessee and at Texas. Overall, they have a favorable home slate to get to six wins and go bowling once again.

Lee K. Howard (WKYT): I think 8-4 is a very realistic outcome for Kentucky this season. I predict the Wildcats to go 4-4 in the SEC with wins over South Carolina, Vandy, Florida and Auburn, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they sneak in one more win at Ole Miss or Texas to get to 9-3.

Brian Milam (WKYT): I’m stuck between 7-5 and 8-4. I believe the season could rest on the South Carolina game and Auburn. If UK gets a win in both, 8-4 record.

Kinsey Lee (WLEX): 8-4. I think Georgia, Tennessee and Texas will be losses, and there are plenty of toss up games (South Carolina, Ole Miss, Auburn, Florida, Louisville). This is a TOUGH schedule for Kentucky especially the timing of these games. South Carolina is going to be huge the second week of the season. They lose that game, I believe you can throw the 8-4 record out the window.

Jeff Piecoro (WTVQ): Two games loom large for the Cats: South Carolina and Auburn. Both at home. Win both and there is a real chance for nine wins! 9-3.

Forrest Tucker (WTVQ): Seven wins are totally plausible for Kentucky this season. A bowl game is somewhat of a guarantee as well. Is this the year Mark Stoops will hopefully move the needle and make Kentucky a consistent top 25 team? The only way the Wildcats can do that is by pulling off a few upsets. Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss at their places come to mind. If you want a possible upset that the fans can contribute to, then BBN should show out like crazy when Georgia comes to town for a night game. Hopefully their bark is worse than their bite. Final standing, 8-4.

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