What should we make of the Winnipeg Jets?

One of the big issues in the Western Conference is figuring out what we think of some of its best teams.

Winnipeg and Nashville are two teams that just need to be compared against each other. They’re both high-end clubs with skill at every position and some of the biggest point totals in the league so far this year. They’ll almost certainly face off in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs once again this season. But you watch them and you read about them and something just seems… off.

Some of that — maybe even a lot of it — is injuries, and specifically injuries to important players. Nashville currently ranks sixth in the league in man-games lost to injury, and Winnipeg is technically in good shape at 23rd. But then you look at then you look at the high-end guys who have missed time, and it’s substantial. A lot of problems crop up when your best players miss large chunks of the season. Things are going to be off. But at the end of the day, all you’re trying to do is get into the playoffs in good shape.

Winnipeg, though, is a little different. They seem destined to pull into the postseason sitting atop the Central because they have a lot of talent, but boy are there a lot of procedural problems with the group as well. Their power play struggles in Dustin Byfuglien’s absence are well-documented and he recently came back from a lengthy absence (he’s missed a total of 21 games at various points this year), so that helps. The lack of Nik Ehlers since early January has certainly been a problem as well.

But even when everything is going right, there’s a big difference in the “I Get It” factor with Nashville and Winnipeg, especially at 5-on-5. Nashville is one of the best possession teams in the league and tends to do a pretty good job of generating quality offense (11th in full-strength expected-goals for per 60) while also limiting it (10th in expected-goals against).

In all those same stats, though, Winnipeg doesn’t really impress at all. Middling-to-bad possession numbers, and they’re not exactly doing what the Islanders and Capitals can by outperforming negative quantity with positive quality: They’re 23rd in xGF per hour at 5-on-5, and 15th in xGA.

In all situations — and xG adjusts for game states like power plays and penalty kills, so it’s a good indicator here — the Jets are a little better offensively, but a little worse defensively: 16th in expected-goals per hour but 21st in xGA per 60. And look, talented clubs can absolutely outperform their xG numbers since those are based on the league average and talented players are above-average. Sure.

But more to the point, the Jets have a really top-heavy scoring situation on their roster. Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler are just crushing the competition with 68 points each, but Kyle Connor (their most common linemate) is next at 44 points, and Patrik Laine and Bryan Little are another step down with 36 points each.

When Wheeler and Scheifele are on the ice, mostly together but sometimes separately, they’re dynamite. Both have outstanding underlying numbers. They’re well ahead of just about anyone else on the team in terms of generating shot quality, but they also have some defensive deficiencies which see them giving up more quality against than almost any other forwards on the team on a per-hour basis. Only Adam Lowry and Bryan Little are worse.

But as long as you’re doing better than your opponents, that’s all you can really ask for, and both of them are. Laine and of course Connor are in the mix there too, driving a ton of shot quality in the right direction. The problem, obviously, is everyone else.

In net, Connor Hellebuyck has been about as good as you can expect, maybe a little on the negative side but overall fine, even if he isn’t living up to that contract. Backup Laurent Brossoit has been unequivocally great. So overall I can’t hang too much on the goaltending here as a potential indicator of future difficulty.

The real problem, though, is the defense. Yes, the four best forwards on the team are way above water in shot quality and quantity, a few are middling, and a couple are actively bad. But on the blue line, it’s Dustin Byfuglien absolutely killing it again this year (when healthy), and everyone else sinking the team like a boat anchor. Even Jacob Trouba is getting buried.

Just bad from front to back, and that’s why I’m dubious about this team’s long-term chances, even to come out of their own division, let alone to beat one of the Sharks or Flames. They’re reportedly in the mix for some forward help, and it would definitely be a benefit to them to get it. Not only to boost their own chances but, depending on who they ultimately land, maybe even hurting Nashville’s, because they’re apparently big-game hunting as well, given that they’re set on the blue line. Scheifele and Wheeler could absolutely use the help.

But Kevin Cheveldayoff would do better to go out and try to acquire someone who can actually be a positive influence at the back, so Byfuglien doesn’t have to play half an hour a night to keep them going. The problem is there might not be much help out there unless you’re willing to bowl over Carolina with an offer for Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk, or Dougie Hamilton, which the Jets might not be able to do because of their cap situation.

The Jets just seem to be a team with clear needs that they might not be able to meet at the deadline. They’re extremely talented at the top of the roster but like a lot of teams, their flaws are glaring, which is why Nashville still seems like a better pick to come out of the Central.

Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo! Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.

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