Club World Cup schedule revealed: Messi, Inter Miami get winnable group, standalone opener

Three takeaways:

1. Seattle is probably the biggest losers of the draw. The Sounders got an extremely tough group ... but without a true headliner like Real Madrid or Bayern that would have huge neutral-fan appeal.

2. Inter Miami's group is fascinating. All three games seem winnable ... but, depending on form over the next six months, Messi and co. might not be favored in any of them. It's wide open.

3. There is no true group of death. Group C could have been, but Auckland City makes it much less interesting.

And some other matchups to look forward to:

1. Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal

2. River Plate vs. Inter Milan (and Monterrey vs. both of them)

3. Boca Juniors vs. Benfica and Bayern Munich

GROUP A

1. Palmeiras (Brazil)
2. Porto (Portugal)
3. Al Ahly (Egypt)
4. Inter Miami (U.S.)

GROUP B

1. PSG (France)
2. Atlético Madrid (Spain)
3. Botafogo (Brazil)
4. Seattle Sounders (U.S.)

GROUP C

1. Bayern Munich (Germany)
2. Auckland City (New Zealand)
3. Boca Juniors (Argentina)
4. Benfica (Portugal)

GROUP D

1. Flamengo (Brazil)
2. Espérance (Tunisia)
3. Chelsea (England)
4. León (Mexico)

GROUP E

1. River Plate (Argentina)
2. Urawa Reds (Japan)
3. Monterrey (Mexico)
4. Inter Milan (Italy)

GROUP F

1. Fluminense (Brazil)
2. Borussia Dortmund (Germany)
3. Ulsan (South Korea)
4. Mamelodi Sundowns (South Africa)

GROUP G

1. Manchester City (England)
2. Wydad (Morocco)
3. Al Ain (UAE)
4. Juventus (Italy)

GROUP H

1. Real Madrid (Spain)
2. Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)
3. Pachuca (Mexico)
4. RB Salzburg (Austria)

1. Palmeiras (Brazil)
2. Porto (Portugal)
3. Al Ahly (Egypt)
4. Inter Miami (U.S.)

There's no giant in there. But you could also argue that Miami is the worst of the four teams. Al Ahly has won three of the past four African Champions League titles.

... who are, on current form, the best team in South America. They lead Brazil's Serie A, and just won the Copa Libertadores.

Seattle will be a heavy underdog in all three of its group matches. The full Group B:

1. PSG (France)
2. Atlético Madrid (Spain)
3. Botafogo (Brazil)
4. Seattle Sounders (U.S.)

Here's how things stand at the halfway point:

GROUP A

1. Palmeiras (Brazil)
2. Porto (Portugal)
3.
4. Inter Miami (U.S.)

GROUP B

1. PSG (France)
2. Atlético Madrid (Spain)
3.
4. Seattle Sounders (U.S.)

GROUP C

1. Bayern Munich (Germany)
2.
3.
4. Benfica (Portugal)

GROUP D

1. Flamengo (Brazil)
2.
3. Chelsea (England)
4.

GROUP E

1. River Plate (Argentina)
2.
3.
4. Inter Milan (Italy)

GROUP F

1. Fluminense (Brazil)
2. Borussia Dortmund (Germany)
3.
4.

GROUP G

1. Manchester City (England)
2.
3.
4. Juventus (Italy)

GROUP H

1. Real Madrid (Spain)
2.
3.
4. RB Salzburg (Austria)

That, along with PSG vs. Atlético Madrid, will be the biggest matchup of two European giants in the group stage.

They'll play PSG and Atlético Madrid in Group B. That's tough.

Seattle would need to pull off a pretty significant upset to advance.

They're three of the four teams in Group A.

And FIFA is probably disappointed with that. There'll be no Messi-vs.-European giant in the group stage.

No real takeaways yet, but for those keeping track...

Group A: Palmeiras

Group B: PSG

Group C: Bayern Munich

Group D: Flamengo

Group E: River Plate

Group F: Fluminense

Group G: Manchester City

Group H: Real Madrid

To be clear, this does not mean that Man City and Real Madrid will meet in the first knockout round. It's all very confusing.

They'll be in Group B. And PSG was just drawn into Group B as the top seed, the first European team out of Pot 1.

... and it's Palmeiras.

That means they'll go into Group A, and play Inter Miami in the group stage.

... at around 1:35 p.m. ET, for those keeping track.

Pot 1 will be up first.

They just explained the procedure on the broadcast. It's complicated. Here are the key points:

1. Man City and Real Madrid, as the top two teams, must go to groups whose winners will stay on opposite sides of the knockout bracket. (One side is Group A, C, E and G; the other is B, D, F and H.) Bayern Munich and PSG, as seeds Nos. 3 and 4, will also be sent to opposite sides. And they’ll be placed to ensure that none of the four European superpowers could meet before the semifinals if they all win their groups. (The same exact principles apply to Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 from South America.)

2. The top four teams from Pot 2 — Chelsea, Dortmund, Inter and Porto — must be placed in groups with a South American team from Pot 1. The rest of Pot 2 — Atléti, Benfica, Juve and Salzburg — will be paired with a fellow European club from Pot 1.

3. Teams from the same country can’t be in the same group — meaning Atlético Madrid can’t draw Real Madrid.

4. Beyond the four pairings of European teams, no two clubs from the same continent can be grouped together.

5. Inter Miami will get Position 4 in Group A, and Seattle will get Position 4 in Group B, so that they can play the opening games of the tournament (against teams from Pot 3).

As we explained earlier, it's helpful to think about the first two pots as Pots 1A, 1B, 2B and 2A:

Pot 1A (Europe top seeds): Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, PSG

Pot 1B (South America top seeds): Flamengo, Palmeiras, River Plate, Fluminense

Pot 2A (Europe bottom seeds): Atlético Madrid, Benfica, Juventus, RB Salzburg

Pot 2B (Europe middle seeds): Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan, Porto

The Pot 1A teams must be paired with the Pot 2A teams; the Pot 1B teams must be paired with the Pot 2B teams.

... and Gianni Infantino is still onstage.

No sign of pots or the orbs that will be used to draw teams into groups.

But they did just call up former Italian forward Alessandro Del Piero, who will apparently be the "draw conductor."

... via video. That was random — and, of course, political.

Trump and Infantino are tight. In the pre-recorded video message, he called Infantino only by his first name, "Gianni."

Expect Trump to be very present around the 2026 World Cup, and perhaps at the 2025 Club World Cup as well.

He isn't in Miami today for the draw, but Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner are. Infantino gave them a shoutout.

These events are insufferably long and often cringey.

This one was slated to start at 1 p.m. ET. It started at 1:04 with a long musical video interlude. Now Gianni Infantino, the self-important FIFA president, is talking.

Highly doubt we'll get any teams drawn before 1:30 p.m. ET.

It's 1:04 p.m. ET. Neither DAZN's stream nor the FIFA+ stream has started.

The strongest possible group, on the other hand, could be constructed in a few different ways. But it would definitely include two European teams — namely, Atlético Madrid or Juventus matched up with Man City, Real Madrid or Bayern.

That would allow for a South American team from Pot 3 — Boca Juniors and, more notably, Botafogo, the current Brazilian Serie A leaders and recent Copa Libertadores champions. (Al Hilal is the other strong Pot 3 option.)

Inter Miami could then join them from Pot 4, in a group that looks like this:

1. Real Madrid

2. Juventus

3. Botafogo

4. Inter Miami

Given the "constraints" explained below, the weakest possible group is probably:

1. Fluminense

2. Porto

3. Wydad

4. Auckland City

By all estimations, Auckland City is the weakest team in the field by a very wide margin.

Following up on our previous post ... it's helpful to think about Pots 1 and 2 as Pots 1A, 1B, 2B and 2A:

Pot 1A (Europe top seeds): Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, PSG

Pot 1B (South America top seeds): Flamengo, Palmeiras, River Plate, Fluminense

Pot 2A (Europe bottom seeds): Atlético Madrid, Benfica, Juventus, RB Salzburg

Pot 2B (Europe middle seeds): Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan, Porto

The Pot 1 teams will be drawn into the eight groups. Then it's Pot 2's turn. But the 2B teams will have to match up with 1B teams, and the 2A teams with 1A teams.

Why? Because, although the four South American clubs are top seeds, the eight best teams are all European.

This stipulation ensures that we don't get one group with Real Madrid and Chelsea, another with Man City and Inter Milan, and another with Fluminense and Salzburg. Each group will have at least one European giant OR a very good European team and a very good South American team.

Much like a classic World Cup draw, the 32 teams have been placed in into four pots (see above).

The draw begins with Pot 1, the top seeds. The first team picked goes into Group A, Position 1; the next team picked probably goes into Group B, Position 1; and so on. After all eight groups are filled with a Pot 1 team, a similar procedure empties Pot 2, then Pot 3, and finally Pot 4 — but subject to the following “constraints”:

1. Man City and Real Madrid, as the top two teams, must go to groups whose winners will stay on opposite sides of the knockout bracket. (One side is Group A, C, E and G; the other is B, D, F and H.) Bayern Munich and PSG, as seeds Nos. 3 and 4, will also be sent to opposite sides. And they’ll be placed to ensure that none of the four European superpowers could meet before the semifinals if they all win their groups. (The same exact principles apply to Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 from South America.)

2. The top four teams from Pot 2 — Chelsea, Dortmund, Inter and Porto — must be placed in groups with a South American team from Pot 1. The rest of Pot 2 — Atléti, Benfica, Juve and Salzburg — will be paired with a fellow European club from Pot 1.

3. Teams from the same country can’t be in the same group — meaning Atlético Madrid can’t draw Real Madrid.

4. Beyond the four pairings of European teams, no two clubs from the same continent can be grouped together.

5. Inter Miami will get Position 4 in Group A, and Seattle will get Position 4 in Group B, so that they can play the opening games of the tournament (against teams from Pot 3).

With soccer's money and stars concentrated in Europe, the Club World Cup's field is a bit more stratified than the original World Cup's.

Here's how I'd break it down into tiers:

TIER 1: Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester City

TIER 2: Inter Milan, Chelsea, PSG

TIER 3: Borussia Dortmund, Atlético Madrid, Juventus, Benfica, Porto

TIER 4: Palmeiras, Al Hilal, Botafogo, RB Salzburg, Flamengo

TIER 5: River Plate, Fluminense, Al Ahly, Inter Miami, Boca Juniors, Monterrey

TIER 6: Seattle Sounders, Pachuca, Mamelodi Sundowns, Ulsan, Espérance, León, Urawa Reds, Wydad, Al Ain

TIER 7: Auckland City

The draw is set to begin sometime after 1 p.m. ET.

Between now and then, we'll unpack the procedure, assess the tournament's field, explain why Real Madrid and Manchester City probably won't meet before the final, and prepare you to follow this event like a plugged-in fan.

But first, perhaps you have questions: What the heck is this Club World Cup? Who's in it? Where are the games? When does it start? And why is it happening at all?

All those answers are here.