Lions retain slim Super Bowl odds lead over Bills after loss: NFL Week 15 betting recap

The Detroit Lions entered Week 15 as the betting favorites to win the 2025 Super Bowl with +260 odds at BetMGM. Their opponent Sunday, the Buffalo Bills, had the fourth-best odds at +600.

After the Bills pulled out a convincing road win over the Lions behind another MVP performance from Josh Allen, it would have been reasonable to expect their odds to jump Detroit's, but that's not what happened. Buffalo did move up some to +425 to win the Super Bowl, but the Lions still hold a slight lead over the Bills and every other team at +400.

The Eagles are third at +450 after beating the Steelers. And more notably, the Chiefs slid from +450 to +550 even after beating the Browns to improve to an NFL-best 13-1. Their dip likely has to do with the ankle injury Patrick Mahomes suffered.

So, why are the Bills still behind the Lions even as they appear to be an unstoppable juggernaut? It likely has to do with their potential path to the Super Bowl. While Detroit still controls its destiny as the top seed in the NFC, which would earn a first-round bye, the Bills still trail Kansas City by two games.

That means Buffalo will likely have to play an extra playoff game in a tough conference where teams like the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Texans are all tough matchups. The Bills might be favored over any of those teams, especially in any games that end up in Buffalo. But it would remain a tougher path than any the Lions may have to take -- as of now.

Josh Allen strengthened his MVP stranglehold after Lamar Jackson's valiant push

I wrote last week about how Josh Allen had basically locked up the MVP award, playing so good to move his odds to -500 at BetMGM even after a loss to the Rams. But after watching Lamar Jackson torch the Giants for five touchdowns and a near-perfect passer rating in the early window of Sunday's games, covering the largest spread of the season, I thought maybe things might tighten again. Wrong.

Allen put any notion of Jackson still having a chance to catch him to rest in the late window by dicing up the Lions for 362 yards and two touchdowns passing and another 68 yards and two touchdowns running. So, even on a day Jackson was flawless and shortened his MVP odds to +700, Allen moved to -1000, almost guaranteeing nobody catches him with two games against the Patriots and one against the Jets remaining on Buffalo's schedule.

Steelers' loss keeps Ravens alive in AFC North title race

While Baltimore moved to 9-5 with Sunday's win over the Giants, the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Eagles to fall to 10-4. That means this week's meeting between the Steelers and Ravens could potentially decide the division winner.

If the Steelers win, they'll clinch the division by grabbing a two-game lead over the Ravens and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Ravens win, they'll tie the Steelers at the top of the division and keep hope alive to eventually pass them. And with a slightly easier schedule to finish the season, they might actually do it. BetMGM gives the Ravens +140 odds to win the North compared to -175 for the Steelers.

The Ravens finish the season against the Texans and Browns. The Steelers get the Chiefs and Bengals. Of course, Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury could make the road a little easier for Pittsburgh.

Seahawks' loss to Packers killed their playoff hopes in two ways

The Seattle Seahawks didn't put up much of fight in Sunday's night's 30-13 home loss to the Green Bay Packers, and for that, their path to the playoffs just got a whole lot harder.

For starters, they relinquished their NFC West lead to the Rams because though both teams are 8-6, the Rams currently own the tiebreaker -- and LA can widen its lead with a game against the Jets next week while the Seahawks have to face the Vikings. That's why the Rams are now -155 to win the division at BetMGM and Seattle is just +200.

But that's not where the misery ends for the Seahawks, because falling into the Wild Card race means they would be out the playoffs altogether if the season ended today. Losing to the Packers made that all the more likely, as Green Bay now has a two-game lead over Seattle. That leaves Washington as the only team Seattle might be able to catch, but oddsmakers don't even see that happening. The Commanders have -650 odds of making the playoffs at DraftKings.

Commanders escape Saints and clock operators

The Commanders' playoff chances almost took an unfortunate hit after the Saints and rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler went on an impressive drive in the last two minutes of Sunday's game to almost take the lead as time expired. Down seven, New Orleans scored a touchdown on the final play of regulation and went for two to win the game.

They ultimately failed with an awful conversion attempt, but here's the thing, they probably shouldn't have been given the touchdown in the first place. Time very nearly expired before they were able to get the last play off and potentially would have if not for a clock malfunction. For some reason the game clock appeared to temporarily stop at nine seconds, which potentially allowed New Orleans just enough time to get the play off.

Some people aren't so sure it would have made a difference, so this could be much to do about nothing. But the fact it happened in the first place is a terrible look for an NFL game.

Thankfully, that play didn't cost Washington the game, because it would have been an ugly way for a team in playoff position to lose. It also didn't swing the +7.5 closing spread or the closing total, though people who bet any kind of alternate number may have taken some kind of hit.

Bo Nix probably just gave Jayden Daniels Offensive Rookie of the Year

Jayden Daniels has led the Offensive Rookie of the Year race for most of the season, but Bo Nix made it a much tighter contest the last several weeks. After the way he and the Denver Broncos had come on, Nix was firmly in the conversation for the award and would have been a serious threat to Daniels with a strong finish to the season.

After the way Nix played Sunday, that threat may no longer exist. Though the Broncos beat the Colts to improve to 9-5 -- the same record as Washington -- Nix struggled, throwing for just 130 yards on 33 attempts with three interceptions. He did at least offset his turnovers with three touchdowns, but his numbers on the season now pale in comparison to Daniels, who has almost half the amount of interceptions thrown, a much better passer rating, completion percentage and more yards.

More importantly, Daniels' odds to win OROY moved from -275 last week to -750 at BetMGM. Nix dropped from +200 to +600. We can probably call this one.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Lions retain slim Super Bowl odds lead over Bills after loss: NFL Week 15 betting recap