Lions at Seahawks: Can Detroit win in Seattle, which rarely loses at home?

Detroit Lions (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC

LIONS AT A GLANCE

Key player: QB Matthew Stafford. As the former No. 1 pick goes, so do the Lions. In Detroit’s nine wins, Stafford threw for 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions; in their seven losses, he had seven touchdowns and seven picks. Stafford has also been playing through an injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand; he plays with a stiff splint, but it can affect his throws.

Why they’ll win: The Lions are battle-tested. All but three of their games were decided by a touchdown or less, and Stafford had to lead eight game-winning drives to get them to nine wins. That’s not great for the blood pressure of fans, but the Lions certainly can make it exciting and can’t be counted out easily.

Why they’ll lose: It’s hard to feel confident about Detroit after the way it stumbled to end the season. The Lions have lost four of their last five games against the Seahawks, dating to 2003, and with three of those losses coming in Seattle; Stafford has three starts against Seattle, with a 1-2 record. He has five touchdowns and six interceptions in those games. Oh, and the last time the Lions won a road playoff game was in 1957.

Keep in mind: The Lions have no running game to speak of; they finished 30th in the league in rushing yards, having lost promising second-year back Ameer Abdullah to injury in Week 2 and Theo Riddick in Week 13. The Seahawks are one of the better teams against the run, but it would help if the Lions could keep them honest, and had a way to take some pressure off Stafford. Detroit has been so up-and-down – an early three-game losing streak was followed by a three-game win streak, a loss, and then a five-game win streak. But the Lions finished the season on a three-game skid that put the NFC North in play and eventually caused them to lose out on what would have been their first division title in 23 years.

SEAHAWKS AT A GLANCE

Key player: DE Cliff Avril. The Seahawks’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee, Avril posted a career-high 11.5 sacks this season; in the games in which Avril recorded at least one sack, Seattle was 6-1-1. Avril also had five forced fumbles this season.

Why they’ll win: Whether it’s the travel to Washington state or the decibel level or maybe a combination of both, the Seahawks have never lost a home playoff game with Pete Carroll as coach and Russell Wilson at quarterback, going 4-0; they are 7-1 at CenturyLink Field this season.

Why they’ll lose: The Seahawks really struggled to score points at times – they got just 3 points in a Week 2 loss to the Rams, 6 in a Week 7 tie with the Cardinals, 5 in a Week 12 loss to Tampa Bay, and 10 in a loss in Green Bay last month (Wilson had five interceptions in that game). None of those teams finished better than 14th in the league in terms of points allowed per game.

Keep in mind: Seattle will be without safety/defensive quarterback Earl Thomas, and if you don’t think Thomas is a key part of the Seahawks’ defense, Thomas would like to disagree:

Detroit’s Stafford had 52 passes of 20-plus yards this season; the Seahawks’ defense has surrendered 51 pass plays of 20 or more yards, but 16 of those came over the final four games, when they were without Thomas.

OUTLOOK

It’s hard to get a feel of what to expect from either one of these teams – Detroit has been that streaky club, and none of its wins came against teams that made the playoffs. And Seattle has been a roller coaster; the Seahawks have wins against the Dolphins and Falcons at home and the Patriots on the road, but they were dominated by the Packers just a few weeks ago, lost at home to the Cardinals two weeks ago and didn’t exactly run away from the two-win 49ers in Sunday’s regular-season finale.

The Seahawks under Carroll certainly have a ton of playoff experience, having made the postseason now five years in a row, advancing to the Super Bowl at the end of the 2013 and ’14 seasons. Detroit is making its second playoff appearance in three years under Jim Caldwell, but the Lions haven’t won a postseason game in a generation, since the days of Wayne Fontes and Barry Sanders, when they lost the 1991 NFC championship game to Washington.

With the Lions stumbling down the stretch and the Seahawks so strong at home, the edge on this one goes to Seattle.

Podcast: All you need to know for wild-card weekend

Subscribe to Grandstanding • iTunes • Stitcher • Soundcloud