Ligue 1 Review | Toulouse’s faith in Carles Martínez Novell earns rewards

After a 2-0 victory over AJ Auxerre over the weekend it could be easy to forget some creeping concerns were beginning to emerge in France’s fourth-largest city by late October. Toulouse FC had not been playing poorly but the results were far from encouraging. A single victory from their first eight games left the club on the cusp of the relegation zone. And there were perhaps some familiar questions beginning to be asked of Carles Martínez Novell.

The Spaniard since taking over from Philippe Montanier ahead of the 2023/24 season had generally guided Le TéFéCé in a promising direction. A run in the Europa League courtesy of his predecessor winning the 2022/23 Coupe de France saw a historic victory over Liverpool in the group stages as the club plotted a route to the knockout rounds. However, there were some shaky moments domestically. 

Last December, Martínez Novell had to negotiate tensions within the squad when a public mutiny occurred. Thijs Dalinga (now at FC Bologna) came out following a draw with FC Lorient and criticised the manager’s decision to start him on the bench: “I’m still asking myself why, but when I come on, I have to be professional and score to help the team. That’s what I did and I can’t do much more. The coach hasn’t told me why I was a substitute.”

Sentimentality left at the door in data-led Toulouse

However, even in these difficult moments, the coach has managed to maintain the support of the club hierarchy. This is not a simple task as Toulouse showed with Martínez Novell’s predecessor that they are unwilling to be sentimental if they believe that a better system is within reach. Montanier may have led the club to its first major silverware with the Coupe de France victory, but that was not enough to keep his job come the end of the 2022/23 season. 

This is because Toulouse have fully committed to a data-led approach under president Damien Comolli and while Montanier fell short of expectation (the club’s statistical model had him finishing the season in 11th rather than 13th), Le TéFéCé believe the statistics under Martínez Novell have been highly promising even if results do not always go in their favour. This is perhaps why no one in the club seemed concerned by the start of this campaign. 

Strong underlying data under Carles Martínez Novell

According to Opta, the underlying data for Toulouse has been very good this season. Defensively the club have the lowest number of expected goals against in the league, while offensively Zakaria Aboukhlal has been getting into excellent positions but has struggled to take his chances. The Moroccan international has an XG of 6.08 which is the second best in the league after Bradley Barcola. 

Toulouse are aware that good performances average out over the entire season which is what has begun to happen after the poor start to the campaign. Le TéFéCé have gone on to win four of their last five matches allowing them to storm up to 10th in the table. The only defeat and the only goals conceded in this run came at the hands of the league leaders Paris Saint-Germain (3-0). 

Outside of the club, concerns might have grown but Toulouse have shown that they have faith in their model and a manager who looks to be getting the best out of a young and inexpensively put-together squad. 

This week’s Ligue 1 subplots

• When Luis Enrique speaks, there is an increasing sense of separation between discourse and reality. The club needs wins and the project is becoming less easy to defend for its under-pressure manager. Read the full story HERE. 

• Have Olympique de Marseille overcome their mental block? A huge victory over rivals AS Monaco was only OM’s second victory at home this season but for Roberto De Zerbi it was a turning point. Read his comments HERE.

• There’s a new face at FC Paris. The Ligue 2 side are hoping to become the noisy neighbour in the city of love. The new owners have shed some light on what Jurgen Klopp’s role will be at the club. Read more HERE. 

GFFN | Nick Hartland