Less than two years after making the playoff, why is TCU coach Sonny Dykes on the hot seat?

How much is one playoff win worth?

After another disappointing defeat at home to Houston on Oct. 4, it’s a question TCU fans and the administration must grapple with as the Horned Frogs appear to be on a collision course for another year without a bowl berth.

How many years of unimpeachable job security did the playoff run in 2022 earn Sonny Dykes? Three years? Two years, four? Before the season the odds of Dykes being let go at the end of the year would be close to 0.

But that’s before they blew multiple three-score leads at home against UCF. That was before they allowed SMU to score more points against them than the Mustangs did against Houston Christian.

That was before TCU allowed the worst scoring offense in the country to score 30 points running an offense that wasn’t more complex than your typical Texas middle school team. That’s partially said in jest, but there’s a lot of truth there. How many times did Houston attempt a pass 10 yards or more down field? Once? Twice? None?

The Horned Frogs keep finding a way to outdo themselves when it comes to finding embarrassing ways to lose. It’s been said before, but losing isn’t a crime.

Most TCU fans would be willing to endure a 6-6 or 7-5 campaign if it meant contending for a playoff bid every few seasons. Expectations in Fort Worth are high, but not unreasonable.

Fans don’t expect TCU to be Ohio State every season, but they do have an expectation that the Horned Frogs will compete hard and not continue to be out-matched and out-coached by teams near the bottom of the Big 12.

Before we dig into any criticisms of the scheme or the roster, we must take a look at the top, at the culture of TCU. A dejected Dykes began his press conference with a number of statements that had to be hard to stomach, including the fact that he couldn’t explain what had just taken place on the field against the Cougars.

“I’m at a loss for words, I don’t really have an answer for why we played the way we did,” Dykes said. “It seems like we came out flat, we talked about how important it was to be the most excited team, we talk about that every single week. We weren’t, I’ve got to do a better job of getting guys ready and getting them excited to play.”

Dykes went with the honest route instead of throwing together typical coach speak, but it’s still a damning comment. It’s one thing to not be excited at the end of the year when the team is 5-5 or worse, but TCU had everything in front of it.

Most of the conference had already taken on losses with plenty of key matchups between the teams at the top standings still on the docket.

The Horned Frogs could’ve entered the Oct. 19 showdown with a ranked Utah team with plenty of momentum and a chance to make a statement nationally. If competing for a league title and playoff berth isn’t enough to make the Horned Frogs excited to play, what will be?

It’s taken less than two seasons from TCU to fall from the mountaintop of college football to potential irrelevancy. Since the blowout in the national championship game to Georgia, TCU is just 8-10. From a playoff team to a below-average program in less than 20 games is hard to stomach.

As for the odds of things getting better, it’s hard to find optimism when the Horned Frogs don’t have a strength they can count on. The offense is imbalanced with just 66 rushing yards against Houston and now quarterback Josh Hoover has regressed to the turnover-prone player we saw last year with seven interceptions in the last three games and two fumbles.

The receivers are good, but Houston’s ability to play tight coverage in the second half was a reminder that the group is talented, but this isn’t 2019 LSU we’re talking about. If teams are able to take away TCU’s ability to attack over the top with Jack Bech, what’s TCU’s counter punch?

That’s the thing about the TCU offense under Kendal Briles. The raw numbers are fine, sometimes great, but too often we’ve seen this offense be unable to move the ball when it matters. In the red zone, during two-minute drills and other key drives. There was one sequence late in the first half where TCU had a chance to cut into Houston’s 24-6 lead.

The Horned Frogs went three-and-out and were immediately met by boos in a half-full Amon G. Carter Stadium. In many ways, the start of the downfall began with the hire of Briles. Has he been the biggest problem the last 1.5 seasons? No. But it was the start of alienating a fanbase that was on a high and now is stuck in a free fall with no end in sight.

Defense? Andy Avalos’ first 10 quarters were a breath of fresh air with more blitzes and movement up front. But now TCU’s defense doesn’t look much different than last season and teams haven’t needed any complex gameplans to put up points on a defense that is allowing 30.8 points per game, 105th in the country.

The most important commodity in college athletics is hope. Hope that one day you can see your program break through for a playoff berth or maybe even a national title in the right year.

As long as you can sell that, fans will endure a lot. But when things begin to feel hopeless, that’s when you know change is on the horizon. TCU isn’t at the stage yet, but with a back loaded schedule that has games against Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the program could reach that point quickly.

The only person that can turn this around is Dykes and from what we’ve seen so far this year, it’s a job that might be too big for him.