Leon Draisaitl Has Found A New Level
There was a time when Leon Draisaitl may have been a little overrated.
I know, I know, saying something like that is sacrilegious in Edmonton. But the fact is that earlier in his career, even when he won the Hart Trophy in 2019-20, Draisaitl was often on the ice for more expected goals against than expected goals for. He was often barely keeping his head above water in terms of actual goals, for that matter.
However great he was offensively, Draisaitl spent a good portion of his career giving it all back on defence. That caused a lot of tension between fans who saw him as a top-five player in the NHL and the analytics crowd who saw him as a talented but flawed scorer.
Also, regarding Draisaitl - we’d probably have him ranked somewhere around 30th-50th overall for the Hart 😬
— EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) February 18, 2020
I'm happy to say that those days are behind us. Draisaitl's xG shares had been stuck in the 48% to 52% range for years before they took a massive jump up to 58% last season on the back of a career-best 2.57 xG against per 60 minutes. This year, he's found another level altogether.
He's allowed just 2.13 xGA/60 this season, firmly in the upper tier among forwards. Combined with his always-stellar offence, that translates to an expected goals share of 61.32%, good for the top 20 in the league.
It's the same story when you look at scoring chances, where he's in the top 20 in SCF/60 and well above average in SCA/60 leading to a scoring chance rate that ranks in the top 20 leaguewide. The Oilers take 62.4% of the shots when he's on the ice, fifth among all forwards. I could go on and on, but the numbers say Draisaitl has been a two-way beast.
While it's a little early to say Draisaitl is a Selke candidate, especially since he hasn't spent any time on the penalty kill this season, his defensive impacts have undeniably gone from incredibly weak to very strong in the span of just two years. Draisaitl has gone from a one-way scorer to a legitimate superweapon in all facets of the game.
Because, oh right, he's also second in the league in goals (16) and ninth in points (30). With his incredible goal-scoring and passing ability, Draisaitl never needed to do too much on defence to come out ahead. Now that he's blossomed as a defensive ace, maybe he can finally make some room on his shelf for a second Hart Trophy.
All advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
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