Lack of trust? Analyzing the controversial fourth down decision in TCU’s loss to Baylor

After TCU’s frustrating 37-34 defeat to rival Baylor, much of the conversation centered on Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes’ controversial decision in the fourth quarter.

Up to that point, it was a high-level game with TCU using its passing attack and Wild Frog package with Savion Williams to pile up 27 points. On the flip side, Baylor used a perfectly balanced approach, led by running back Bryson Washington, to tie the game at 27 less than 60 seconds into the fourth quarter.

After Washington’s score, TCU advanced to the Baylor 46 and faced a 4th-and-2 with under 11 minutes remaining. Dykes elected to punt, seemingly trusting his defense to get a stop. But instead the defense allowed Baylor to march down the field and take a 34-27 lead.

TCU tied the again with under two minutes remaining, but Baylor had the ball last and converted a fourth-and-long to eventually kick the game-winning field goal.

After the game, Dykes said, in hindsight, the Horned Frogs should’ve been more aggressive in that situation.

“I wished we would’ve gone for it now on, second thought,” Dykes said. “I thought it was on our side of the 50, but maybe it wasn’t. I don’t know, it’s probably 50-50. If I had to do it over again, knowing the outcome of the game I would’ve gone for it, but I felt pretty good about punting them down and making them drive the length of the field and to their credit that’s what they did.”

Dykes has always been refreshingly honest in those situations. Most of his coaching colleagues would likely have been defensive when asked about a similar decision.

But was the decision to trust his defense in that situation really indefensible? Or did the result just not go TCU’s way?

The more I think on it, it’s starting to feel more like Dykes didn’t have enough trust in his offense as opposed to having trust in a defense that was missing two defensive tackles.

Despite how well TCU moved the ball all night, Dykes didn’t believe, or at the very least didn’t think the Horned Frogs would be able to get two yards against a Baylor defense that was on its heels.

We’ll get to the defense in a second, but the decision at that point felt like an acknowledgment that while TCU’s offense is productive, it’s a finesse unit. Outside of using Williams in the backfield, the Horned Frogs had no semblance of a running game as the other three running backs combined for just 38 yards on 16 carries.

Even so, why not give it to Williams again and live with the results? Who cares if Baylor would fully know the play that TCU was about to run right? Great teams are able to run the ball even when the defense knows it’s coming and that final 10 minutes of the fourth was a reminder that despite TCU showing some improvement, the program is still a long way from being good, let alone great.

Dykes’ lack of faith in the offense should be more concerning than him trusting the defense. Logically, it wasn’t a bad decision with that much time left in the game. If Baylor scored TCU would have plenty of time to answer back, which the Horned Frogs did when Josh Hoover threw a touchdown pass to Jack Bech with 1:55 remaining.

But even at that point, there was a sinking feeling that Baylor would score again unless TCU would be able to force a turnover. With the game on the line, Baylor converted a 4th-and-9 as Sawyer Robertson completed a routine pass to Michael Trigg for 15 yards.

The shortcomings of the defense were summed up in that one play as the Horned Frogs’ inconsistent pass rush wasn’t able to impact Robertson’s timing and Trigg had no problem getting open in the middle of the field despite TCU knowing what was to come.

After two weeks of promise, TCU’s defense regressed to the early season version with Baylor following the same blueprint as SMU, Houston and UCF. The Bears rushed for 257 yards and averaged close to six yards per carry as Washington had one of the best games of his career against the Horned Frogs.

As a whole, it’s time to call the first season under new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos a dud. Yes, TCU has dealt with injuries with starting corner Avery Helm missing every game and key edge rusher Cooper McDonald being sidelined the last three weeks.

The Horned Frogs also lack quality depth on the defensive line with Damonic Williams’ transfer to Oklahoma and the season-ending injury to Paul Oyewale. It’s fair to consider that context when assessing the defense, but with just three games remaining in the season TCU’s defense has been just as ineffective as last season’s.

The Horned Frogs are allowing more points per game and more rushing yards per game while forcing less turnovers. The passing numbers are better despite the injuries, but that still feels like it’s more about teams not needing to throw than any true improvement against the pass.

In the grand scheme of things, whether Dykes elected to go for it or not on fourth down, at some point the defense was going to have to make a stop. Outside of facing the worst offense in the country (Utah), TCU’s defense hasn’t shown the capability to do that consistently.

This is who the 2024 Horned Frogs are, a finesse team that can’t run the ball or trust its defense in tight spots. Being a finesse team may be enough to reach a bowl game and the Horned Frogs should still go bowling with three winnable games.

But for the program to get back to contention in the years to come, these issues will need to be addressed sooner than later.