Kings Pacific Showdown Series: Defensemen

Losing your top defenseman before the first official puck drop of the season can be a significant setback, but the Kings have faced similar challenges before. They experienced a similar blow when Drew Doughty was lost during the 2021-22 season, even with the playoff-experienced veteran threatening to return that postseason if the team advanced past the first round. Additionally, the defensive corps took another hit when shutdown defenseman Matt Roy left for free agency. In his place, Joel Edmundson was signed to a contract that has raised some eyebrows.

However, all is not lost for the Kings. Management has moved on from several talented right-handed defensemen, leaving them with just two key players: Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence. Both have significantly impacted the team's performance this season.

Still young at 23, Spence has been with the Kings since their playoff series against the Oilers in 2021-22. In contrast, Clarke had limited NHL experience before this season but has been responsible for running a top power-play unit during Doughty's absence.

Clarke and Edmundson have formed a solid defensive pairing, logging considerable ice time together this season. According to NST, in 414 minutes and 48 seconds of ice time, they have outscored opponents 21-13, with a Corsi rating of 50.46%. Per Moneypuck, among pairings with at least 200 minutes together, they rank 20th in Expected Goals for per 60 minutes but 47th in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes. Their 438-shot attempts while on the ice place them 18th overall. Initially, as a pair, they were high event, which benefited Clarke, who had a strong start to the season with 2 goals and 11 assists in his first 17 games, finishing with a +1 rating. Over the last 20 games, he's continued to contribute while improving defensively, with 1 goal and 7 assists for a total of 8 points and a +7 rating.

Despite Edmundson's criticism upon his arrival in Los Angeles, he has performed as expected, solidifying and supporting Clarke. He is also a major contributor to the improving penalty kill.

On the other hand, Spence had a rocky start to the season but has begun to find his rhythm while playing alongside Jacob Moverare. Coach Jim Hiller recently highlighted Spence's progress, noting that he has elevated his game in recent outings. In 36 games this season, Spence has recorded 2 goals and 11 assists for 13 points, along with a +9 rating. Although Moverare has helped stabilize Spence and contribute to a respectable third pairing, he will most likely find himself in the press box when Doughty returns.

Doughty's return will create some challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, his absence has allowed Vladislav Gavrikov to showcase his elite defensive potential. When paired with Mikey Anderson, Gavrikov has formed one of the league's top shutdown pairings, boasting the sixth-lowest shot attempts per 60 minutes and the fifth-lowest goals allowed per 60 minutes. Conversely, Doughty's return will likely push Gavrikov down the depth chart, decreasing his minutes and pairing him with an improving player in Spence rather than Anderson.

Once integrated, Doughty is a key figure in this equation. He just posted back-to-back 50-point seasons and consistently ranks among the top three players in the league for total ice time. How he reintegrates into the lineup and adjusts the roles of other players will ultimately determine the configuration and success of the Kings' defensive pairings.

Vegas

The Golden Knights boast abundant talent on their blue line, making it difficult to compare them to the Kings. Alex Pietrangelo is a well-regarded elite defenseman who is paired with another elite player, Noah Hanifin, whom they acquired in a trade last season and re-signed during the offseason. Alongside them, Shea Theodore has been a mainstay in Vegas since the Knights selected him in the expansion draft from the Anaheim Ducks. All three defensemen are elite two-way players or at least very close to that level, with two of them (Theodore and Pietrangelo) being Stanley Cup champions.

The defensive corps shows a solid balance in size and the ability to play effectively in both zones. Brayden McNabb, the rugged, lanky defenseman who was exposed by the Kings in the expansion draft, continues to be a reliable presence in the top four, punishing opponents along the boards. The third defensive pair, consisting of Zach Whitecloud and Nicolas Hague, also fits this mold.

This D-corps is productive offensively, with a combined total of 82 points and an impressive plus-minus rating of +45. However, one significant drawback is their high rate of defensive zone turnovers. Among the top four defensemen, they lead the league in defensive zone turnovers: Hanifin ranks eighth with 37, Pietrangelo is fourteenth with 36, McNabb is thirty-first with 32, and Theodore is fortieth with 30. For comparison, the most turnovers from the Kings blueline is Clarke, their most 'green' defender, who ranks ninety-first with 23.

While concerns about turnovers are valid, size is not an issue. None of the starting defensemen are shorter than 6'2". They possess the size, reach, and physicality necessary to keep opponents struggling with dump-ins. This blend of size, speed, and skill gives Vegas one of the best defensive corps in the league. There are a plethora of champions and elite two-way defensemen amongst their top four, which could be a key reason for their return to the Championship.

Edmonton

Following their appearance in a Stanley Cup Finals Game Seven, the Oilers aimed to maintain a core group of four defensemen: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, and Darnell Nurse. They lost Phillip Broberg to the Blues due to an offer sheet but have contingencies with former Kings Troy Stetcher and Ty Emberson to fill the gap.

Unlike the Knights, the Kings seem to have a slight advantage in this area once Doughty returns.

Emberson and Stetcher are solid players for the Oilers, as they pair well with the balanced Kulak and Nurse. However, compared to the Kings' third pair of Clarke and Edmundson and a potential second pair of Gavrikov and Spence, I don't think the Oilers come out on top in this regard. It's worth acknowledging how much better Nurse performs when paired with Kulak.

Nurse often faces criticism for his contract value. While it remains a too high, he has shown significant improvement in his defensive metrics this season, largely due to his pairing with Kulak. When looking at pairings with 200 minutes or more, Nurse and Kulak boast the lowest Expected Goals Against in the league, at just 6.3. Kulak and Emberson rank 27th in this category as well. Moreover, Nurse and Kulak have the fourth-highest Expected Goals For, at 62.3%. Nurse's Corsi (56.93%) and Fenwick (59.15%) metrics are much higher alongside Kulak compared to when he plays without him (47.88% and 48.39%, respectively).

The Oilers' top pairing of Ekholm and Bouchard adds strength to the team, as they perform exceptionally together. While Bouchard has some defensive shortcomings, his offensive contributions complement a forward roster teeming with talent. Their Expected Goals percentage is 59.6%, which is good for sixth in the league. However, Bouchard's defensive weaknesses are a concern, as their Expected Goals Against ranks 76th overall with 21.3 (200 minutes or more). When focusing on pairings with substantial ice time (500 minutes or more, this ranking does rise to fifth overall, with Gavrikov and Anderson in the top position. With Ekholm as his partner, this pairing has outscored opponents 33-24, whereas Bouchard has had a narrower margin of 4-3 when playing away from Ekholm.

The Oilers score more points as a defensive unit than the Kings (82 compared to 77) but aren't as nearly as defensively sound, with the Oilers' D-corps at +26 and the Kings at +64. While plus-minus can be tricky for evaluating players and teams, this difference is staggering.

In conclusion, although the Kings do not possess the same size and skill as the Knights, they might be defensively ahead of the Oilers. The Kings have been elite defensively while achieving scoring totals similar to those of the Oilers and Knights, all without Doughty. While Bouchard and Ekholm form an excellent pairing in Edmonton, this season has revealed some defensive flaws in Bouchard's game. Kulak is a defensive asset for the Oilers, but it may not be enough to compensate for what should be an elite defenseman like Nurse, carrying a nine-million-dollar contract.

Required Reading:

Part One: Centers