Kings Pacific Showdown: Goalies

The Kings gambled on familiarity two offseasons ago by signing Cam Talbot. Talbot had previously played under then-head coach Todd McLellan in Edmonton and was signed to Los Angeles for the 2023-24 season. Although both Talbot and McLellan have since left LA, Talbot was able to reinvigorate his career as a King.

The Kings made a risky move with Pierre-Luc Dubois, who soured and was traded for Darcy Kuemper. While Kuemper had experience in the Kings organization and is a Stanley Cup Champion, he came with risks after two disappointing seasons in Washington, where he lost his starting position to backup Charlie Lindgren.

One-for-one swaps can often be hit or miss. Dubois struggled in LA, while Kuemper had his challenges in Washington. Among the goaltenders who have played 18 or more games this season, Kuemper ranks 21st in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE) at 2.4, which, among starters, isn't anything flashy. However, his save percentage on unblocked shots is an impressive ninth overall at .959%. With the Kings' strong defense in front of him, his goals-against average (GAA) is fourth overall at 2.29. Kuemper's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is below average at 21st overall, at 0.40, suggesting he isn't solely responsible for the team's success. However, he has been excellent for the Kings recently, trending more toward being an ace goaltender rather than just average.

In his last eight games, Kuemper is unbeaten in regulation with a record of 6-0-2, a GAA of 1.86, and a save percentage of .931%. He delivered a standout performance in a recent game against one of the league's top teams, the New Jersey Devils, recording his second shutout of the season in what could be termed a "steal," similar to his first shutout against Buffalo. Kuemper has proven to be very reliable for the Kings, even without needing to be the star on a defensively dominant team. Adding to his value, he has a .900 SV % on high danger unblocked shots on the penalty kill, suitable for 3rd overall (14 games played or more).

Backing up Kuemper is David Rittich, who is in his second season with LA. Rittich is just two wins away from matching his total from last season (13), primarily due to Kuemper's injuries. However, Rittich has struggled this season and has not been the reliable backup he was last year, posting a save percentage (SV%) of .887 and a GAA of 2.55. This compares unfavorably to last season's split of .921 SV% and a GAA of 2.15 despite making four more starts (22 games compared to 18). "Big Save Dave" has shown flashes of his potential but has also faced challenges and inconsistency, and in certain situations, has had a few 'goose eggs' of games. His troubles are a significant factor in why the team's overall save percentage ranks 11th in the league at .898%.

Edmonton

Edmonton has not received the same level of goaltending as the Kings. Both Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner have an SV% of .898. Skinner is the designated starter heading into his third season, producing solid SV% of .913 and .905 in prior seasons. However, his GSAE currently ranks 28th among goaltenders with 18 or more games played at -3.3. Pickard, with only 13 games played, would rank 33rd in GSAE at -1.9. Last season, Skinner concluded with a GSAE of 2.0.

Skinner does stand out in one area: he ranks 11th in unblocked high danger save percentage at .813%. In comparison, Kuemper's percentage is .750. However, it's important to note that Skinner's team allows significantly more high-danger opportunities. Rittich and Kuemper also outperform Skinner regarding GSAE on the penalty kill.

Vegas

The Golden Knights have a solid goaltending tandem in Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov, which surpasses both the Kings' and Oilers' duos in performance. Hill has recorded an impressive 8.4 GSAE in all situations, ranking 12th among goaltenders with 18 games played. Samsonov, who has played 14 games, is close behind with a GSAE of 6.1. Both goaltenders have solid save percentages on unblocked shots, slightly below Kuemper's (.957) but higher than Rittich's.

Hill and Samsonov have lower GAAs (2.65 and 2.69, respectively) compared to Rittich and Kuemper, but the Kings' goaltenders benefit from elite defensive support, boosting their numbers. Both Vegas netminders have Wins Above Replacement well above either King, with Hill at 1.39 and Samsonov at 1.02. Notably, Samsonov leads all three teams' goalies in save percentage on high danger unblocked shots at .815%, while Hill follows with a respectable .753.

However, Vegas has some weaknesses, particularly in penalty-kill performance. Hill has a -0.5 Saves Above Expected, while Samsonov sits at -2.2. This may help explain why the Golden Knights' penalty kill is average, at 80.2% (16th overall).

In summary, the Kings seemingly found a valuable asset in Kuemper, an acquired risk currently valued at $5,250,000. Pickard and Skinner's combined salaries are $3.6 million ($1.6 million and $2.0 million, respectively). Hill is making $4.9 million, while Samsonov's salary is $1.8 million, contributing to $6.7 million for the Vegas tandem. While it's not solely about the financial aspect, the Knights have a higher salary expenditure on goaltending compared to both the Kings ($6.25 million) and the Oilers ($3.6 million).

The Knights take this area with some ease. The Kings, however, are closely trailing the Knights, thanks to a strong resurgence from Kuemper after his return from injury; however, they are hampered by Rittich's poor numbers as a backup. The Oilers are relying heavily on their two superstars and a questionable defensive corps to return to their recent run of 'almost' glory. Despite having unreliable goaltending, the fact that they are competing closely with both Vegas and LA highlights the impact their stars can have on a nightly basis. I expect them to acquire a defenseman at the trade deadline to help them replenish their goals for a championship.

Required Reading:

Part I: Centers

Part II: Defensemen

Part III: Wingers