Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Can Wildcats spoil Commodores’ Cinderella story?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s game against Vanderbilt might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

Another reason to expect a close game

Even before Vanderbilt shocked the college football world by knocking off No. 1 Alabama last week, there was reason to expect this game for Kentucky to be a difficult one.

While UK has won seven of the last eight games in the series with Vanderbilt, the games in Lexington have been close. None of UK’s home games in the series have been decided by more than 10 points since 2012, a 40-0 Vanderbilt win that essentially ended the Joker Phillips era.

Kentucky has only lost to Vanderbilt in Lexington once during Mark Stoops’ tenure as coach — the 24-21 loss in the last meeting at Kroger Field in 2022 — but the three meetings in Lexington before that one were decided by one score. Stoops’ fours wins over Vanderbilt in Nashville have all come by 17 or more points.

“Coming into this press conference I don’t have to worry about selling Vanderbilt anymore and telling you how good they are, how good Clark Lea has done,” Stoops said Monday. “I have a lot of respect for Clark and what he has done and been building for some time. Of course, they beat us not long ago, so I know what he’s capable of and what type of quality person and coach he is and the job that he’s doing at Vanderbilt.”

The bye week factor

Stoops gets the question every year.

Did the bye week come at a good time for your team?

“I think it definitely feels better (coming off a win),” Stoops said when asked about having a week off after knocking off Ole Miss. “Let’s be honest. When we have a loss, we’re waiting for the next opportunity and sometimes that’s a long wait when you’re waiting two weeks.

“But either way you have to try to clear it, get good energy and get out here and try to be productive and improve and get better. I feel like the guys are in a good place, but they’ll continue to get some rest. Obviously without having to play on Saturday, their bodies need to recover a little bit.”

Kentucky’s record after bye weeks has been mixed in Stoops’ tenure, making it hard to make firm conclusions about what to expect this week.

Stoops’ first three UK teams lost four of five games after a bye, but those teams lost the majority of their games without a week off too. From 2016 to 2020 UK was 4-1 after an off week.

Kentucky enters Saturday’s game against Vanderbilt having lost its last three games after a bye week though.

“We’ve had good, really good physical practices,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said. “I think certainly in the bye week, we practiced three times, got guys good work. They’ve been out here working hard again. Maybe there’s always that part of just getting out of rhythm a little bit from taking a week off, but again, we’re working through it and ready to go.”

Injury report

One benefit of a bye week is an extra chance for players dealing with injuries to rehab. That week appears to have paid off for two Wildcats dealing with long-term issues as wide receiver Hardley Gilmore and offensive tackle Courtland Ford, who have yet to play this season, were listed as probable on Wednesday’s availability report.

The bye week was not enough time for star cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who missed the Ole Miss game, to return. Stoops listed him as “out” on Wednesday’s report. Running back Chip Trayanum, who experienced a setback in his rehab from a hand injury after returning to practice before the bye week, and defensive linemen Josaih Hayes, Darrion Henry-Young and Tavion Gadson remain out.

UK’s cornerback depth behind Hairston will be even thinner against Vanderbilt than Ole Miss as freshman Tehryon Nichols, who dislocated a shoulder in the win over the Rebels, was downgraded from doubtful to out on Thursday.

“We got a bunch of guys that are ready to play, and that’s why they practice hard, so that they can be the next guy in,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “And that’s the way we’ll just always do it. It doesn’t matter which position.”

Freshman kicker Jacob Kauwe will also be out against Vanderbilt. Kauwe has not played this season, but Stoops has said he would use the Montana native on field goals around 60 yards in a potential game-winning situation.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 21

Leaving Oxford, there were real reasons to worry about a letdown for Kentucky after the Ole Miss win. The fact that Vanderbilt upset Alabama seems to have eliminated any concern about Kentucky overlooking the Commodores though. Now it’s Vanderbilt that will have to fight against a letdown after a week of national attention. This is a real test for Kentucky’s defense, but the progress shown by the offense before the bye increases the confidence that UK can score enough to win this one.

MVP: Jamarion Wilcox

For all of UK’s rushing success, the offense has lacked explosive plays on the ground. Wilcox seems like the best bet to fix that issue. This feels like the game where he finally breaks one.

FINAL WORD

“When you watch the tape and you watch (Vanderbilt), you understand, you know why they’re able to do what they do. It’s a great scheme with really good football players executing at a really high level, playing with great passion. You saw in the very first drive of that Alabama game there was nobody on that field that was afraid to be on that field. They wanted every bit of that smoke in that situation, and they’re going to want every bit on Saturday.” — White on Vanderbilt’s play

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