Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction: Can UK overcome injuries, recent form to shock Vols?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s game against No. 7 Tennessee might play out at Neyland Stadium on Saturday.

Kentucky football injury report

If Kentucky’s recent form was not concerning enough heading into a top-10 matchup in a series Tennessee has dominated, the release of UK’s availability report Wednesday added even more reason for worry.

UK will be without at least five normal starters: cornerback Maxwell Hairston, outside linebacker J.J. Weaver, inside linebacker D’Eryk Jackson, right tackle Gerald Mincey and tight end Jordan Dingle. Defensive back Jantzen Dunn, outside linebacker Steven Soles and running back Chip Trayanum were also listed as out, along with defensive linemen Darrion Henry-Young and Josaih Hayes, who have yet to play this season.

Cornerback DJ Waller, who has started in place of Hairston the last four games, was listed as questionable Wednesday, upgraded to probable on Thursday then listed as out on Friday. Freshman defensive back Quay’sheed Scott and sophomore linebacker Jayvant Brown were downgraded to out on Thursday.

The only bit of good news on the injury report was that running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye was listed as probable Wednesday then upgraded to available on Thursday after missing the Auburn game. Defensive tackle Deone Walker defensive lineman Tavion Gadson were listed as probable earlier in the week then upgraded to availble Friday. Cornerback Nasir Addison was listed as probable.

The injuries are particularly concerning on defense where the Wildcats will be without their best cornerback (and his replacement), their top two edge rushers and their top inside linebacker. The pressure will be on a host of young backups including freshman cornerback Tehryon Nichols and sophomore outside linebackers Tyreese Fearbry and Noah Matthews to step up in expanded roles. UK coach Mark Stoops said senior linebacker Daveren Rayner, who was viewed as a key piece in the defense entering the season but elected to redshirt after playing in three games could use his final regular season appearance to stay below the four-game redshirt threshold this weekend.

Redshirt freshman Malachi Wood will probably make his second start at right tackle in place of Mincey. While Wood impressed off the bench at Florida, he struggled for much of the Auburn loss in his first start. Tight ends Khamari Anderson and Willie Rodriguez could be needed more with Dingle out.

“Our guys are beat down pretty good,” UK coach Mark Stoops said Wednesday. “We got to get our guys healthy this week.”

Gerald Mincey won’t get his revenge

Among the injured Wildcats this week is the player who made headlines in the winter after transferring from Tennessee to Kentucky.

“I love the underdog, so when we go on Nov. 2 to Neyland and we bust them in the mouth, we can put the standard back over here,” Mincey said after enrolling at UK in January. “I love being the underdog. I don’t look at it as rivals. I look at it as a game and to go out there and get my job done.”

After entering the transfer portal and committing to Kentucky, Mincey drew attention for several interactions with Tennessee fans on social media. In his first conversation with local reporters in Lexington, he repeatedly referred to his excitement for Nov. 2 (the date of the game against Tennessee) without being prompted.

“I’m a troll, I guess,” Mincey said. “... You can see that’s what I’ve been doing. That’s just a little fire to the fuel. Get to work and know that I have a target on my back. That’s just making me work even harder. I’ve got to talk the talk and walk the walk.”

Mincey’s senior season at Kentucky has not gone according to plan as the Wildcats offensive line — and its tackles specifically — have drawn intense criticism for pass protection failures.

Still, Mincey’s importance to UK was illustrated when he was unavailable against Auburn last week and Wood looked not ready for a featured role.

Stopping the spiral

For Kentucky to snap a three-game losing streak it will need to rediscover the form from the September upset of Ole Miss without many of its key players available.

That unlikely feat will require leaders to step up in a way that has not worked against weaker opponents in the last month.

“I always want to have a player-led team,” Stoops said. “I mean, you want to set the bar for them and give them the tools to lead and to be successful and what it takes and demonstrate that for them. But you have to have strong leadership within your team to get you through tough times. And we have that.

“Unfortunately, a lot of those guys are not very healthy, so it is what it is. I don’t want to keep on commenting on it. There’s no excuses. It is what it is. Everybody in the SEC is beat up right now. So I think we have to then look for guys that are on the field and other players to step up.”

UK players available for interviews since the Auburn loss have insisted they do not feel things spiraling out of control despite outside perception the season is already lost.

Extending the eight-year bowl streak is still mathematically possible, but it will require upsetting one of No. 7 Tennessee or No. 6 Texas on the road in addition to beating Murray State and Louisville at home. Even after a loss at Tennessee, Kentucky could theoretically run the table in the last three games to reach a bowl, but the cumulative effect of each loss makes it harder to imagine a miracle.

“Obviously, we’re frustrated with how we performed the last couple weeks, and the only way to get the taste out of your mouth is to put a good game together on Saturday,” center and team captain Eli Cox said. “So, think we’re very focused. I think this team wants it, and I don’t think it would be so frustrating for us the last couple weeks, if this team didn’t care.

“If guys didn’t care about losing, if we wanted to roll out there and that to happen, you would see guys already gone (from the practice facility), the field would be empty. You wouldn’t see all the extra work going on right now. So it’s an important week, just like every week is and we’re ready to tackle it.”

Kentucky vs. Tennessee football prediction

Tennessee 35, Kentucky 7

Tennessee’s offense has not been nearly as effective as it was in recent years thus far in SEC play, but the combination of UK’s own offensive ineptitude and defensive injuries make it nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where this goes well for Stoops and company. Preventing a fast Tennessee start will be key in building confidence.

MVP: Dylan Sampson

Josh Huepel’s Tennessee offense is known best for its explosive passing attack and high tempo, but Sampson has been the Volunteers’ best offensive player this season with 838 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Sampson has rushed for at least 92 yards in every game this season.

FINAL WORD

“I think this team is hungry. It’s not that no one cares. It’s frustrating. It’s a tough league, and no one’s gonna feel sorry for you, but it’s a tough league, and guys are hungry. We want to win. We wouldn’t be here if we wanted to lose all the time.” — Cox on team morale

Saturday

Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee

When: 7:45 p.m.

TV: SEC Network

Records: Kentucky 3-5 (1-5 SEC), Tennessee 6-1 (3-1 SEC)

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

Series: Tennessee leads 84-26-9

Last meeting: Tennessee won 33-27 on Oct. 28, 2023, in Lexington

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