Kentucky vs. South Carolina predictions: Can Wildcats erase bad taste of last 2 meetings?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s 2024 SEC opener against South Carolina might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

Stop the streak

Mark Stoops is 7-4 against South Carolina in his Kentucky tenure but is just 1-2 against the Gamecocks with Shane Beamer as coach.

After posting two of their worst performances of the 2022 and 2023 seasons in losses to South Carolina, Kentucky players acknowledged this week they have something to prove Saturday.

“We had a bad taste in our mouth from last year,” cornerback JQ Hardaway said. “We know for a fact we could have played better last year. I feel like them guys didn’t beat us last year. I feel like we beat ourselves.”

The 2022 loss to South Carolina can be at least partially explained by an injury that sidelined quarterback Will Levis. Kaiya Sheron, now a backup at FCS-level UT Martin, started that game in Levis’ place.

But the offensive woes in last November’s trip to Columbia cannot be explained by an injury. Kentucky turned the ball over twice in South Carolina territory and a third time near midfield on its final possession with a chance to retake the lead.

Stoops called the loss one of his most difficult to swallow in 11 seasons at Kentucky.

“We know that they’re a good team and they beat us the past couple years,” wide receiver Ja’Mori Maclin, a transfer from North Texas, said. “But we know that we’re a better team, and we just got to go out there and show that.”

Facing the first dual-threat QB of the season

South Carolina redshirt freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers posted a mixed performance in his first career start, completing just 10 of 23 passes for 114 yards while rushing for 68 yards and one touchdown in the opener against Old Dominion.

Kentucky fans will need no reminder of the defense’s struggles at times against run-first quarterbacks in the past, but the Wildcats do have at least one advantage in their preparation for that challenge this season.

“We get a little bit more practice at that than maybe we did last year,” defensive coordinator Brad White said during preseason camp. “So, that’s really good for our defense. Anytime you can see a different sort of style, action, and then you couple it with everything they do, it puts a lot of stress on us on a constant basis.”

White was referring to the presence of quarterbacks Brock Vandagriff and Gavin Wimsatt on Kentucky’s offense. New offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan has emphasized the quarterback run game as part of his scheme with both Vandagriff and Wimsatt capable of making plays with their legs.

“It definitely helps us just get ready for it,” defensive lineman Tre’vonn Rybka said. “We’ve seen it all camp. Like it’s nothing new that we aren’t seeing.”

Sellers actually gained 102 rushing yards against Old Dominion but was sacked four times. Partnering Sellers with running back Raheim Sanders, who ranked second in the SEC in rushing yards as a sophomore at Arkansas in 2022, makes the Gamecocks’ rushing attack look like a much more difficult challenge for Kentucky than week one when the Wildcats held Southern Miss to just 5 rushing yards in a lightning-shortened game.

“I think we’re gonna see a balanced offense,” White said, noting that South Carolina also had to deal with a weather delay in its opener. “… Game one is always tough as it is, so I expect them to come in, be really sharp, really balanced run and pass. And so we’ve got to be ready to handle that.”

An early introduction to new SEC TV package

By default, Kentucky-South Carolina gets a featured spot in the SEC’s new television package this week as the only conference game.

That means a 3:30 p.m. start on network TV. But the SEC Game of the Week is no longer on CBS. It is now on ABC. The SEC’s new TV deal will see multiple games broadcast on ABC most weeks. Tennessee’s game against N.C. State is the prime-time kickoff this week.

Kentucky will play on ABC in back-to-back weeks with a 7 p.m. kickoff against Georgia to follow the South Carolina game.

Since the former TV deal featured only one SEC game on CBS most weeks, Kentucky rarely played in that time slot. When it did, it was usually against one of the best teams in the league, leading to a lopsided record.

Beating South Carolina looks like an essential step to a special season regardless of what channel broadcasts the game, but having ABC air the game does give Stoops’ team a chance to make a larger impression on a national audience.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Kentucky 28, South Carolina 14 — The winner of this game has not scored more than 26 points in the last three meetings, so expect another slugfest. Until South Carolina proves it has a competent passing attack, I’ll give the edge to a Kentucky team with a veteran defense and enough explosive threats on offense to take an early lead.

MVP: J.J. Weaver — This feels like a week where Kentucky gets a standout defensive performance. Against Sellers, Weaver should have a chance for multiple sacks and tackles for loss. The Wildcats will need him to play like a sixth-year senior who maintains his discipline against an athletic quarterback.

The spread — Kentucky is favored by 10 points as of Thursday afternoon. Two of the last three games in the series have been decided by single digits.

The last word

“I’ve been fortunate to be a lot of places, but to walk out there after a two hour delay and see that place as packed as it was, you got to slow down sometimes. And you got to be grateful and thankful for where you’re at. And I will never, ever forget that.” — Hamdan on fan support in UK’s opener

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