Kentucky vs. Ole Miss prediction: Can Wildcats keep pace with Rebels’ tempo offense?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game at No. 6 Ole Miss might play out at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday.

Tempo, tempo, tempo

Ole Miss ranks at or near the top of the country in almost every significant offensive category. Yes, those numbers have been boosted by a weak schedule that even Rebels coach Lane Kiffin acknowledged has done little to prepare his team for SEC play, but regardless of opponent it is clear Ole Miss operates one of the fastest offenses in the country.

“It’s impossible to simulate it,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said of the Ole Miss offensive tempo. “You just try to do the best you can to try to get as many quality reps in as you can. It’s hard for anybody in the country to simulate what they do, and especially at the efficiency that they do it at.”

The Ole Miss tempo makes the Rebels a different type of challenge than the one Kentucky faced two weeks ago against then No. 1-ranked Georgia. Kentucky will rarely have time to make defensive substitutions between plays, increasing the pressure on players to maintain their discipline and focus even when tired.

“The one thing I tell the defense all the time is, ‘Hey listen, even if they go on a 10-play drive, it may only be two minutes and 30 seconds. So you can do anything for two minutes and 30 seconds, full speed,’” White said. “Your tongue might be hanging out and you may need the next series off, but they got to rock and roll like it is what it is there.”

Like most teams, Kentucky’s defense has looked more vulnerable against high-tempo teams at times — see the 44-6 loss at Tennessee in 2022 — but there has at least been some evidence the Wildcats can slow those type of offenses enough to remain in the game.

UK held Ole Miss to just 22 points in the 2022 trip to Oxford. Last year, White’s defense kept things much closer against Tennessee than the previous season in a 33-27 loss.

“They’re going to get theirs,” safety Zion Childress said. “We just got to be able to make sure that we don’t give a lot of chunk plays. Just make them snap it again, snap it again. We can get them out of rhythm and not let them get rolling. That’ll help us a lot, especially early.”

Through four games, Ole Miss has recorded 100 plays of at least 10 yards, 12 more than any other team in the country.

A new test for Brock Vandagriff

Of course, the biggest help for Kentucky’s defense could be the Wildcats’ offense carrying the progress it showed against Ohio to an SEC game. It is difficult to imagine a scenario where Kentucky can keep this game close like it did against Georgia by only kicking field goals.

For the offense to find the end zone for the first time against an SEC opponent this season, quarterback Brock Vandagriff will have to perform in his first career road start.

“Been a part of some of those big games, but never have been taking the snaps, things of that sort,” Vandagriff said. “But Coach (Mark) Stoops, and Coach (Bush) Hamdan have done a great job of kind of trying to try as much as they can to replicate that crowd noise. The stuff that we got out there, practice speakers and stuff like that, is pretty loud, but just just executing the offense is the main thing. And the quarterback being the most prepared person out there, because there’s going to be questions, stuff like that. Because you’re not gonna be able to tell the o-line (the play). You might have to run up there, stuff like that. So just making sure that you’re ready to adapt.”

Don’t expect the Kentucky offense to suddenly abandon its identity just because Ole Miss is a threat to put up points quickly.

The pass protection problems remain significant enough that staying out of predictable passing situations will be essential for the Wildcats. That means finding offensive balance by leaning on the run game again.

Recording sustained drives has the added benefit of keeping the Ole Miss offense off the field.

“(Time of possession) matters to us, because we need to grind it out,” Stoops said. “We need to get first downs, we need to move the football. I think even in some games where we haven’t scored as many points as we liked we have gained some first downs. And I think that’s important, just for us.

“... They get a lot of explosive plays, and can score very fast. But for us, I think it’s just important to be who we are, and grind out some tough yards. But we have to do a better job of creating some explosives, and we have to find a way to get the ball in the end zone more.”

A new opportunity for young linebackers

When senior linebacker Daveren Rayner did not dress for the Ohio game, it was assumed he was dealing with an injury that was not previously disclosed because UK did not issue an availability report before the nonconference game. Then when Rayner was missing from the depth chart Monday, fears rose that he was dealing with a significant injury.

In his Monday news conference shortly after the depth chart was released, Stoops revealed Rayner was not injured. Instead, UK is now planning to redshirt him so he can spend the year adding weight to his lanky frame before hopefully taking on a starring role in his final season of eligibility in 2025.

Since Rayner played in each of the first three games, he can appear in one more regular season game without using the year of eligibility. A potential bowl game would not count against the four-game limit for a redshirt.

“Surely it’d be great to have him back a year from now, but we are in the business of trying to win every game we can right now,” Stoops said. “We’ll try it out and see where it goes.”

The addition of Georgia transfer Jamon Dumas-Johnson blocked Rayner from a starting job this season, but he still played a key role in the first three games, contributing several highlight-worthy plays.

With Dumas-Johnson, D’Eryk Jackson and Alex Afari still available, Kentucky should be able to cover the snaps at inside linebacker barring injury. But the depth would look better if sophomore Jayvant Brown or redshirt freshman Grant Godfrey proves worthy of more snaps.

“That’s part of the process, growing youth and young guys,” White said. “Jayvant and Grant, they’re coming along. This is a big moment for them. Obviously, feel really good about (Dumas-Johnson) and D Jack and Alex. So, I think we’re going to be fine.”

Kentucky football injury report

After announcing Ohio State running back transfer Chip Trayanum had been cleared to practice after missing the first four games with a hand injury, Stoops listed the preseason projected starter as “doubtful” on Wednesday’s availability report then downgraded him to “out” on Thursday’s update. Trayanum was initially joined in the doubtful category by freshman linebacker Devin Smith, who has yet to play this season but could be another depth option at inside linebacker when available, but Smith was also downgraded to “out” on Thursday.

Hairston was added to the availability report on Thursday as “questionable” then downgraded to “out” on Friday. Hairston has yet to miss a game but has been dealing with a shoulder injury. He was a game-time decision for UK’s last SEC game against Georgia. It is unclear if the same issue is the reason he will not play at Ole Miss or if there is a different reason for his absence.

Wide receiver Hardley Gilmore, offensive tackle Courtland Ford and defensive linemen Josaih Hayes, Tavion Gadson and Darrion Henry-Young remain out after missing the first four games.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Ole Miss 31, Kentucky 20

Kentucky’s defense appears good enough to make this more interesting than the casual fan looking at Saturday’s schedule might expect, but even in good performances this season that unit has had a handful of mistakes per game. Against Ole Miss, a mistake can turn into a long touchdown at any moment. It would be unreasonable to expect Kentucky’s defense to be perfect, and the Wildcats’ offense hasn’t proven it can score in the 30s against an SEC team.

MVP: Tre Harris

Ole Miss has no shortage of dynamic play-making options, but Harris leads the pack, ranking second nationally in receiving yards per game (157) with four touchdowns. It probably is not as simple as saying cornerback Maxwell Hairston will match up with Harris on every play either, since the Rebels have other receivers that have to be accounted for.

The last word

“I think those are all things we got to think about during the week. How are we going to win this football game? And those are conversations between Coach (Stoops), Brad, myself, all of us, putting our plan of attack together. But we know the brand we have to play. And I think it’s become pretty apparent to me in the first couple weeks what that is, and we got to go execute our plan to the best of our ability.” — Hamdan on how UK’s offensive game plan is affected by the Ole Miss offense

Saturday

Kentucky at No. 6 Mississippi

When: Noon EDT

TV: ABC

Records: Kentucky 2-2 (0-2 SEC), Mississippi 4-0 (0-0 SEC)

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

Series: Mississippi leads 30-14-1

Last meeting: Mississippi won 22-19 on Oct. 1, 2022, in Oxford, Miss.

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