Kentucky vs. Ohio prediction: Will the Wildcats’ offense finally find passing success?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against Ohio might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

Focus will be important in possible trap game

This season marks the 20th anniversary of perhaps the low point in the Rich Brooks era at Kentucky when the Wildcats were upset by Ohio 28-16 at Kroger Field on Oct. 2, 2004. That was actually the Bobcats’ second win in Lexington as they also upset Kentucky in 1971.

It would be silly for a Kentucky team coming off back-to-back losses to feel overconfident heading into the matchup, but the Wildcats have received enough praise for their performance in a 13-12 loss to then No. 1-ranked Georgia to at least have some concern about a letdown. The fact that another top-five SEC opponent looms next week at Ole Miss adds to the possibility that Ohio could be a trap game.

“They’re going to come in and they’re not going to hand you anything,” center Eli Cox said. “This is a big game for them. And we talk all the time for their NFL hopefuls on their roster, the first game they’re going to flip on will be against an SEC opponent. They want to see what they did against what’s supposed to be the best conference in football. So they’re going to come out here and play with a great sense of urgency. They’re going to play through the echo of the whistle, we have to make them match our intention. Going into the week, they’re going to play hard, and we have to match it.”

The fact that two of Ohio’s Mid-American Conference rivals have already scored upsets of Power Four teams this season (Northern Illinois over Notre Dame and Toledo over Mississippi State) should at least help Mark Stoops and his staff keep players focused. Back-to-back games without a touchdown should also offer plenty of motivation for UK’s offense to want to prove it is better than SEC play has indicated so far.

“Just like last week, it’s about us and our preparation and what we do throughout the week to put us into a position to win and have confidence by our preparation,” Stoops said. “It’s back to work and we are looking forward to the opportunity.”

Finding the end zone

It is difficult to complain too much about Kentucky’s conservative offensive strategy against Georgia considering the Wildcats had the ball at midfield with three minutes left in the game trailing by just one point, but the reality is UK has been held without a touchdown in consecutive games for the first time since 1996.

“We think things are there, and we just got to keep working,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said. “This is not a final product in Week 2 or Week 3. It’s a constant state of improvement. That’s the message for them, for myself, for everybody, and we got to keep taking the next step.”

There were certainly signs of offensive progress against Georgia.

The 73 offensive plays were the most for UK in a game since October 2022. Kentucky topped its 23 first downs against Georgia just once last season.

“I think the thing we all realized was, again, the attention to detail, getting lined up, playing fast, eliminating penalties, all those things made us drastically better,” Hamdan said. “Now, did the scoreboard show it? Absolutely not, but I think when you go through a week like we did through South Carolina, where the second half there’s just penalties, self-inflicted wounds and then you go and play the No. 1 team in the country and you play relatively clean and have a chance at the end to win the football game, I think that is that practice execution equals game day reality. I think that focus has been turned up, and we got to keep it there.”

With 174 rushing yards against Georgia, Kentucky appears to have established its rushing attack, but the pass protection still needs to improve.

Quarterback Brock Vandagriff had more time to throw against Georgia, but Stoops’ end-game strategy indicated just how much the coaching staff is trying to avoid putting him in predictable passing situations so opponents can send extra pressure.

“We always talk about explosive plays starting up front, and when it was blocked properly, we were able to push the ball down the field at times,” Hamdan said. “And so I think it’s just overall consistency. As we know, it’s every position for four quarters. And it’s assignment based, it’s holding up. It’s all those things. But certainly we just need to take the next step in that category, and we’re working hard to do so.”

Injury report

With Kentucky stepping out of conference play this week, Stoops is not required to publish an availability report as he is before SEC games. Still, on Monday, Stoops indicated left guard Jager Burton would probably be questionable for the game after not playing against Georgia due to an injury he sustained against South Carolina. The status of backup running back Jason Patterson, who also missed the Georgia game, is uncertain. Right tackle Gerald Mincey and cornerback Maxwell Hairston were able to play last week despite being listed as game-time decisions.

“I’ve got to give a shout out to Mincey for playing,” Stoops said Monday. “I was very unsure whether he would play and he played his tail off, gave it everything he has. And the same with Maxwell Hariston. Wasn’t feeling great with his shoulder and just played through it, and really played good. So, I appreciate the effort. We aren’t ever going to let anyone play injured but they were banged up.”

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Kentucky 35, Ohio 10

Ohio is not a pushover, but this is a team Kentucky should handle if it has any hope of keeping its bowl streak alive. It would not be a shock to see this score closer at halftime than fans would like, but the need for the offense to build momentum should lessen any fears of a trap game. This has to be a day where UK fans, players and coaches leave Kroger Field feeling much better about Vandagriff and the offense.

MVP: Demie Sumo-Karngbaye

Yes, Vandagriff and the receivers need to have a big day, but Kentucky is not going to abandon a rushing attack that is working so well. Sumo-Karngbaye just missed his first career 100-yard game against Georgia with 98 yards. He should top that plateau this week.

The last word

“We lost two back to back, so at this point we don’t care who we play. We can play (Kentucky) State, we still gonna have the mindset. Me as a captain, I’m still on guys I know MAC schools play hard. They’re physical.” — JJ Weaver on the mindset in practice this week

‘We can’t buy a bucket.’ Why there’s hope for one bad UK football stat to correct itself.

Could Alex Raynor leave Kentucky as program’s best kicker after Georgia performance?

Why more freshmen are playing for Kentucky football on special teams this season

What if I told you the main criticism of Mark Stoops is completely backward?

Forget the what-ifs; focus on an encouraging reality about Kentucky football