Can Kentucky’s Mark Stoops overcome his ‘heartbreak team’ Saturday at Ole Miss?

Over Mark Stoops’ 12 seasons as Kentucky football coach, seven SEC teams have pinned more losses on the Wildcats than has Mississippi. Yet it is possible that no Southeastern Conference foe has created more agony for Stoops than has Ole Miss.

Heading into Saturday’s high noon showdown for Kentucky (2-2, 0-2 SEC) against Lane Kiffin’s No. 6 Rebels (4-0, 0-0 SEC), Stoops stands 0-3 vs. Mississippi.

All three of those defeats came in gut-wrenching fashion:

▪ 2017: Ole Miss defeated Kentucky 37-34 on a 7-yard Jordan Ta’amu touchdown pass with five seconds left in the game. In a battle of future NFL players with the game on the line, Rebels wideout D.K. Metcalf leaped above UK cornerback Lonnie Johnson to snare the ball — and the win.

▪ 2020: The Rebels bested the Wildcats 42-41 in overtime to give Kiffin his first win as Mississippi’s head coach.

UK’s fate was sealed by a missed PAT in the OT and a missed 49-yard field goal in the third quarter.

▪ 2022: No. 7 Kentucky lost 22-19 at No. 14 Ole Miss after the Wildcats missed two extra points and a 38-yard field-goal attempt and had what likely would have been a game-winning touchdown pass with 58 seconds left called back due to an illegal motion penalty.

With the game’s outcome hanging in the balance on the Wildcats’ final two offensive drives, UK quarterback Will Levis lost fumbles at the Ole Miss 21- and the Rebels’ 25-yard lines, respectively.

Put it all together, and Stoops has endured three losses to Mississippi by a combined seven points in games that all were right there to be taken.

Whatever else one thinks of UK’s chances as a 15 1/2-point underdog Saturday at Mississippi, the Wildcats would seem to have ample recent heartache caused by the Rebels on which to draw for motivation.

“I tell you every year, (that) every year, every game, it’s totally different,” Stoops said Monday at his weekly news conference at Kroger Field.

In Oxford, a Kentucky defense that has given up only 19 total points in its past two games — a 13-12 loss to then-No. 1 Georgia and a 41-6 rout of Ohio — will face the ultimate test.

With Heisman Trophy candidate Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Mississippi stands first in the FBS in scoring (55 points a game), passing (477.8 yards a game), total offense (670.8 yards a game) and total first downs (130).

The Rebels are “only” fifth in the country in pass completion percentage (73.4), seventh in third down conversion rate (55.8%) and 12th in rushing (248 yards a game).

“Amazing, eye-popping statistics,” Stoops said of this latest version of Kiffin’s “fast break on grass” offense.

Facing such a frenetic offensive pace — Mississippi is averaging 75.8 plays a game through four contests — Stoops said the UK defense has to think fast before every play in terms of how to align.

“We have to be dialed in, locked in at all times,” Stoops said. “The moment you are not, they are going to hit you with a big play.”

In the two times Kentucky has faced Mississippi since Kiffin came on board five seasons back, the Wildcats have had mixed results in slowing the Ole Miss offensive system.

The Rebels hung 42 points and 459 total yards on UK in 2020, and they averaged a robust 6.9 yards on 67 plays from scrimmage.

Two years ago, however, Kentucky limited Mississippi to 22 points and 399 yards of offense, as the Rebels averaged 5.9 yards on 68 plays.

As impressive as the numbers put up by Ole Miss have been so far in 2024, they have been compiled against competition of, at best, dubious quality.

The cumulative record of the four teams Mississippi has beaten to date — Furman (1-3); Middle Tennessee State (1-3); at Wake Forest (1-2); and Georgia Southern (2-2) — is 5-10.

“They have worked a lot on themselves and gearing up,” Stoops said of Ole Miss’ first four games. “It doesn’t matter the competition or who they have played. They are a top team and they have played like it.”

Conversely, UK has already played league games against South Carolina (a dispiriting 31-6 loss) and Georgia (the near miss on what would have been an upset for the ages).

In the overall arc of the Stoops coaching era at Kentucky, the three losses to Mississippi have each carried a substantial big-picture cost.

In 2017 and 2022, losing to Ole Miss ultimately denied Kentucky eight-win regular seasons in both years. For a football program that has only reached eight victories in regular-season play twice since 1984, those were damaging defeats.

Meanwhile, UK falling to Ole Miss in 2020 prevented the Wildcats, who finished 5-6, from posting a winning record. That is the only losing season for Kentucky since 2015.

In Oxford on Saturday, Mark Stoops gets another chance to flip the script against his own personal “heartbreak team.”

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