Yahoo Sports Kentucky boasts a revered college basketball streak. Is it in peril in 2024-25?
It has long been my contention that the commonwealth of Kentucky’s proudest sports achievement is this:
In every men’s NCAA basketball tournament played after 1963, our relatively small state has had at least one team in the field.
So as 2024 gives way to 2025 and Kentucky’s eight Division I men’s hoops teams head full bore into conference play, where do things stand in the drive to extend our state’s marquee sports streak for another March Madness?
Listed in order of the likelihood I think each team has of making the NCAA tourney, let’s examine the odds each of the commonwealth’s men’s Division I basketball programs have of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday:
Kentucky
Record: 10-2, 0-0 SEC.
NET Ranking: No. 24 (through Sunday’s games), which is seventh among the 16 SEC teams.
Conference favorite: Both the NET Rankings and ESPN.com’s latest bracketology project Auburn to earn the SEC’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: Strong, albeit with a caveat.
In an SEC which boasts 14 of the top 50 teams in the NET Rankings, there are going to be some quality squads whose postseason hopes are imperiled by going 6-12 in the league.
If Mark Pope and the Wildcats at least break even in SEC play, then UK’s marquee, non-league victories over Duke (now No. 3 in the NET) and Gonzaga (No. 6) should lock Kentucky into the field of 68.
Louisville
Record: 8-5, 1-1 ACC.
NET Ranking: No. 60, which is sixth among 18 ACC teams.
Conference favorite: Duke is favored in both the NET Rankings and ESPN.com’s latest bracketology.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: Middling. In what appears to be a mediocre ACC, Louisville has a realistic chance to finish among the top four teams in the league.
Whether that would be enough for Pat Kelsey’s Cards to earn an at-large bid is unclear.
The ACC’s dismal 2-14 record against SEC teams in the SEC/ACC Challenge helped create a perception of league weakness that will be hard to overcome. U of L’s 1-4 mark in non-league play in Quad 1 games doesn’t help.
Western Kentucky
Record: 9-4, 0-0 Conference USA.
NET Ranking: No. 135, fourth among C-USA’s 10 teams.
Conference favorite: Both the NET Rankings and ESPN.com’s bracketology favor Liberty.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: Not as strong as it appeared in the preseason due to injuries that have thinned out the nucleus that returned from WKU’s 2023-24 NCAA tourney team.
Still, first-year coach Hank Plona’s team has fared reasonably well, 3-4 vs. the top three quads, against a challenging early schedule. Western still features a veteran core led by standout guard Don McHenry.
Morehead State
Record: 7-6, 2-0 OVC.
NET Ranking: No. 316, 10th of 11 OVC teams.
Conference favorite: The NET Rankings favor Little Rock, while ESPN’s bracketology projects Southeast Missouri State to win the OVC’s automatic bid.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: Better than Morehead State’s bleak NET Ranking suggests. The OVC does not appear to be a strong league and MSU, which has played in the NCAA tourney twice in the past four years, has built an expectation of OVC Tournament success.
One area where first-year coach Jonathan Mattox’s Eagles must improve is playing away from home: MSU is 6-0 at Johnson Arena and 1-6 everywhere else.
Northern Kentucky
Record: 7-7, 2-1 Horizon League.
NET Ranking: No. 222, fifth among 11 Horizon League teams.
Conference favorite: The NET Rankings favor Milwaukee, while ESPN’s bracketology projects Youngstown State to win the Horizon League’s automatic bid.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: You can never count out NKU, which has a history of playing well in the Horizon League Tournament. The Norse have won four of the past eight league tourneys.
Keep in mind, three of this season’s losses for Darrin Horn’s crew have come to power conference foes.
Eastern Kentucky
Record: 6-7, 0-0 ASUN.
NET Ranking: No. 182, sixth of 12 ASUN teams.
Conference favorite: Both the NET Rankings and ESPN.com’s latest bracketology favor Lipscomb.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: Not likely, but not impossible. A season ago, veteran-heavy EKU was the No. 1 seed in the ASUN Tournament but was upset by No. 10 seed Jacksonville in Richmond.
This year, A.W. Hamilton’s Colonels do not carry the same level of expectations. That could give Eastern a chance to fly beneath the radar in what tends to be a wide-open ASUN Tournament.
Murray State
Record: 7-6, 1-1 MVC.
NET Ranking: No. 141, sixth of 12 Missouri Valley Conference teams.
Conference favorite: The NET Rankings favor undefeated Drake, while ESPN’s bracketology projects Indiana State to win the MVC’s automatic bid.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: Not great. Since giving up its traditional perch as OVC kingpin, Murray State has gone 34-41 overall, 21-21 in the MVC.
For Steve Prohm’s 2024-25 Racers to reawaken past glories, MSU has to start winning more of the close ones. Murray State is 2-3 this season in games decided by three points or less and/or in overtime.
Bellarmine
Record: 3-10, 0-0 ASUN.
NET Ranking: No. 354, 11th of 12 ASUN teams.
Conference favorite: Both the NET Rankings and ESPN.com’s latest bracketology favor Lipscomb.
Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: Scant. After four long seasons of NCAA Tournament ineligibility as part of the transition from Division II to Division I, Bellarmine is finally eligible to play in the D-I NCAA tourney in 2025.
Alas, since winning the ASUN Tournament in 2022, Scott Davenport’s program has subsequently gone 26-51. It would take a miraculous uptick in form for the Knights to win the ASUN tourney in 2025.
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