How Kentucky baseball and Oregon State pitching staffs match up for super regional

jon hale

Fri, Jun 7, 2024, 7:00 a.m.·8 min read

So much for the worry that Kentucky baseball did not have enough pitching depth to make it through an NCAA Tournament regional.

The Wildcats cruised through the Lexington Regional in just three games while using just eight pitchers. Saves leader Johnny Hummel and former Friday starter Travis Smith, the team’s top pitching MLB draft prospect, both warmed up multiple times during the weekend but were not needed.

Stellar starts from Trey Pooser (seven innings, one run) and Mason Moore (six shutout innings) relieved much of the pressure on the bullpen in the regional. Now, Kentucky need not worry about the potential of playing as many as five games this weekend.

The quality of competition will increase as No. 15 seed Oregon State travels to Lexington for the super regional, but the best-of-three format makes the pitching plan easier to navigate.

“I think this one is a little easier to approach because it’s just like another weekend series,” reliever Ryan Hagenow said. “We have the same guys. We’re used to playing three games. This time we could only play two.”

Oregon State ranks eighth nationally in home runs (118) and 13th in runs scored (516). While those numbers might be inflated slightly by playing against Pac-12 competition rather than the Southeastern Conference gauntlet Kentucky has faced, the Beavers’ offense is built around second baseman Travis Bazzana, who MLB.com ranks as the top prospect in the 2024 MLB draft.

“They have the ability to steal bases, they have the ability to hit home runs,” UK coach Nick Mingione said. “They hit for average. It is a team filled with guys up and down their lineup that know how to work and manage their ways through at-bats. Very similar to us.”

Kentucky presents its own challenges for Oregon State.

The Wildcats rank 20th nationally in stolen bases per game (1.98) and 45th in runs scored (458). While Kentucky is primarily known as a small-ball team eager to take extra bases and not afraid of moving runners over with sacrifice bunts, Mingione’s squad is tied for 68th nationally in home runs per game (1.46).

Two dynamic offenses could lead to high-scoring games this weekend, but both squads have shown the potential to ride their pitching too. Here is a closer look at how the pitching staffs match up.

Kentucky ace Trey Pooser is 6-1 with a 3.77 ERA on the season. He has struck out 71 batters and walked 29 in 76 1/3 innings.

Starters

Pooser and Moore are likely to start the first two games for Kentucky in some order. While neither is considered a top MLB draft prospect, it’s difficult to argue with their recent results.

Since moving into the weekend rotation in late March, Pooser has recorded five quality starts. He has surrendered just one run in his last 12 innings in starts against Arkansas and Illinois. Pooser has struck out 71 batters and walked 29 in 76 1/3 innings.

With a 5.02 ERA on the season, Moore might not look like a shutdown starter, but after his performance in the regional-clinching victory over Indiana State Moore has pitched 20 1/3 innings in the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons without surrendering a run. The sinker-ball specialist is 9-3 on the season with two of the losses coming against South Carolina. In his 14 starts against teams other than South Carolina, Moore has a 3.84 ERA.

Oregon State’s ace, Aiden May, is ranked as the No. 82 prospect in the 2024 MLB draft class by MLB.com. He is 7-0 on the season with a 2.88 ERA, 79 strikeouts and 22 walks in 68 2/3 innings, but May was not at his best in the regional. He struck out nine batters but walked four while allowing four runs, three of which were earned, in 5 2/3 innings against Tulane.

No. 2 starter Jacob Kmatz shined in the regional, allowing just one run in seven innings while striking out nine batters and walking one against UC Irvine. He is 7-2 with a 3.29 ERA.

“They make it really hard on hitters,” Mingione said. “They don’t lose many games with those guys, so we’ll have our hands full. It’s like with our guys. Very similar to the guys we have. We don’t lose a lot of games when those guys are starters, so it will be a great matchup.”

How Kentucky uses No. 3 starter Dominic Niman will be a storyline to watch. The left-handed pitcher struggled down the stretch in the regular season but held his own while starting the regional opener against Western Michigan. Would Mingione use him out of the pen in one of the first two games or save him for the if-necessary game Monday?

Bullpen

Texas A&M transfer Robert Hogan cemented his status as Kentucky’s top reliever with 3 1/3 scoreless innings to close out the regional opener. He will certainly be used for multiple innings in the regional. The question is whether Mingione uses him for multiple innings in game one (with the hope of possibly coming back in game three) or tries to use him in game one and two. Hogan has pitched on back-to-back days once this season, but he threw just two-thirds of an inning in the first of those appearances against Arkansas in early May.

Right-handed reliever Cameron O’Brien was one of the overlooked stars of the regional with seven strikeouts and one walk in 3 1/3 scoreless innings across two appearances. Senior Ryan Hagenow pitched two scoreless innings to lower his team-best ERA to 1.96 on the season but has thrown just 18 1/3 innings all spring.

Hummel did not pitch in the regional but warmed up multiple times. He looked vulnerable down the stretch but did throw two scoreless innings against LSU in the SEC Tournament. If the series goes to three games, Hummel and Smith could be key to piecing together a game three plan.

The biggest question about the bullpen might be how quickly Mingione makes a move if either Pooser or Moore struggle in their starts. If he has to make an early change, lefties Evan Byers, Jackson Nove and Ben Cleaver could be needed for more than just matchups.

Kentucky fans can expect to see a lot of Oregon State closer Bridger Holmes this weekend. The side-armer, who is ranked as a top-200 draft prospect by MLB.com, pitched in all three of Oregon State’s regional games. He has tallied 14 saves on the season to go with a 1.97 ERA, 46 strikeouts and 15 walks in 32 innings.

Left-hander Nelson Keljo was particularly effective for Oregon State in the regional with seven strikeouts, no walks and just two hits allowed in 4 2/3 scoreless innings across two appearances. Right-hander Joey Mundt ranks second on the team in appearances (23) and boasts a 2.17 ERA in 29 innings.

Winning game one could change the bullpen plan for either team. As soon as elimination is on the table, neither manager can afford to wait long with his pitching moves.

“It’s absolutely important,” Mingione said of winning game one. “In a lot of ways it’s much like an SEC weekend to where you’re trying to win every weekend. It doesn’t matter if you win the first one and then you win the next two or you win the first one, lose the middle one and win the next one. Ultimately, at the end of the day you’ve got to win the series, however that goes.

“When you look at our team this year, we’ve done it both ways. … We’ve done it either way against really good teams, so we’ll be able to draw from that experience.”

This weekend

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Oregon State

What: NCAA Tournament super regional

When: Saturday-Monday

Where: Kentucky Proud Park in Lexington

At stake: Winner of best-of-three series advances to College World Series

Tickets: UKBaseballTix.com

SCHEDULE

Saturday: 6 p.m. (ESPNU)

Sunday: 9 p.m. (ESPNU)

Monday (if necessary): TBA (TBA)

NCAA super regionals

Here are the pairings for this weekend’s super-regional round of the NCAA Tournament. Each matchup is a best-of-three series, with the winner advancing to the College World Series (Teams listed with overall NCAA seed at start of 64-team tournament):

Starting Friday

▪ Evansville (38-24) at No. 1 Tennessee (53-11)

▪ UConn (35-24) at No. 8 Florida State (45-15)

▪ Kansas State (35-24) at No. 12 Virginia (44-15)

▪ West Virginia (36-22) at No. 4 North Carolina (45-14)

Starting Saturday

▪ No. 15 Oregon State (45-14) at No. 2 Kentucky (43-14)

▪ No. 10 North Carolina State (36-20) at No. 7 Georgia (42-15)

▪ Florida (32-28) at No. 6 Clemson (44-14)

▪ Oregon (40-18) at No. 3 Texas A&M (47-13)

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