Kelly: If Dolphins can’t get a deal done with Tua, what’s Plan B? | Opinion

We’re far from the point of no return in Tua Tagovailoa and his camp’s ongoing negotiations with the Miami Dolphins for a multiyear extension.

Both sides are working to find a compromise, and the first real deadline is the July 24 start of training camp. And even that soft deadline can be pushed to the Sept. 9 start of the regular season. The week leading up to the kickoff is when the Dolphins decision makers typically put their best offers on the table for extensions.

But what happens if the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa, who is playing on his fifth-year option, which is worth $23.1 million, can’t come to terms on a deal, much like Christian Wilkins, a three-time team captain, couldn’t last year? What happens if the team’s starting quarterback decides he eventually wants a divorce?

While that’s not likely since Tagovailoa claims South Florida will be his family’s forever home, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.

Nobody goes into a marriage expecting it to have an expiration date? But Tagovailoa did warn that it has been difficult to not take these negotiations personally.

“For people that talk about business is different than personal, sure, I can agree to some extent. But who you are as a person, for what you do business and personal, is who you are with how you do everything. That’s how I see it,” Tagovailoa said earlier this month. “If you can be two different people at once, hey by all means. But to me, that’s just not how I am.”

Using the tag

Using the franchise tag to retain Tagovailoa in 2025 is an option, one that will cost Miami something in the neighborhood of $43 million in real salary, and cap space. That’s certainly doable for all parties, and is likely being used as negotiating leverage by both camps.

Having the nonexclusive tag available protects the Dolphins for one season, and maybe two if they use it a second time for $51.6 million in 2026.

However, going that route would handcuff Miami when it comes to the team’s spending power that offseason since the Dolphins are projected to only have $7 million in cap space, and that’s after this year’s money ($16 million in cap space) is carried over to next year, if that’s how Miami plans to use it.

Placing the tag on Tagovailoa in 2025 would lead to some belt-tightening — releases, restructured deals, shakedowns — but that has been the franchise’s norm for the past two offseasons because of the team’s all-in, live-for-today, pay-for-it-tomorrow - approach.

But let’s say Tagovailoa’s relationship with this team sours, and/or another team (let’s say Las Vegas or the New York Giants) views the 2024 Pro Bowl starter as its perfect quarterback, and one of those teams makes him the 26-year-old an offer Miami is unwilling to match for whatever reason. Then what?

Could a backup replace Tua?

Mike White, who will be a free agent in 2025, and Skylar Thompson, a 2022 seventh-round pick, shouldn’t be viewed as realistic options to replace Tagovailoa for anyone who has seen the three quarterbacks practice or play in a NFL game.

Tagovailoa is drastically better than his two backups, who showcased themselves all offseason because Tagovailoa was only participating in 7-on-7 work, and their output (which in fairness didn’t feature Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Odell Beckham Jr. for most, if not all of the practice days) wasn’t impressive.

Maybe the tune on White or Thompson changes based on what they show this season. But neither has shown he has the makeup to become an upper-echelon NFL starter.

The search for a QB upgrade

Dallas’ Dak Prescott will likely be an unrestricted free agent next offseason unless he signs an extension before the high-stakes free agency bidding begins next spring. Prescott, who has a no-trade and no-tag clause in his contract, which pays him $29 million this year, will likely regain his former standing as the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback if he’s healthy and productive in 2025.

How much better would Prescott at $55 million-plus a season be than Tagovailoa is the question Miami would have to weigh? And are the Dolphins certain Prescott would leave Dallas, and that the Dolphins would be the highest bidders for his services?

If Miami’s willing to give Prescott a pace-setting contract, why wouldn’t they do the same for Tagovailoa, which is the holdup in these contract talks?

Other QBs potentially available

It’s possible that Kirk Cousins might be on the trading block next spring considering the Falcons, which signed the 35-year-old to a four-year, $180 million contract this offseason, drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the first round and will eventually hand the rookie the keys to the franchise.

Cousins, who is overcoming a Achilles injury he sustained last season, will likely begin 2024 as the Falcons starter. But if he’s not a top-rated passer who leads Atlanta to a winning season, the Falcons might be willing to pivot for the right draft pick in 2025.

Cousins will make $27.5 million in 2025 and $45 million in 2026, but only his 2025 salary is guaranteed.

Miami could also pursue Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, luring one of Pittsburgh’s two quarterbacks. Nobody knows which of those two will end the season as the Steelers’ starter, or how far either quarterback will lead Pittsburgh. But one should be available in 2025, if not both.

The Dolphins could also provide Daniel Jones a new home if he’s dislodged from his starting role with the New York Giants. Jones has two years left on his existing contract, which will pay him $30.5 million next season at the age of 28.

Deshaun Watson, who is guaranteed $46 million a year for the 2025 and 2026 seasons, could also be available if his price tag doesn’t match his production in Cleveland. And Arizona could be motivated to move on from Kyler Murray if he’s not able to turn the Cardinals back into a winning franchise.

The odds of any of those veteran quarterbacks being waived are slim, so we’re talking about a trade that would require early draft picks, maybe a second- or a third-round selection, and that’s being fairly conservative.

Let’s be honest, are those options — at whatever price in salary and draft picks — substantially better than Tagovailoa, who is one of two quarterbacks to produce a 100-plus passer rating the past two seasons, with San Francisco’s Brock Purdy being the other?

Time to develop a rookie QB?

If Miami does move on from Tagovailoa and enters a rebuilding state, the franchise could turn to the 2025 draft.

It’s hard to say which college quarterbacks — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Miami’s Cam Ward, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Appalachian State’s Joey Aguiliar and Missouri’s Brady Cook — will have teams lining up for their services, jockeying to get to the top of the 2025 NFL Draft.

The 2024 collegiate season must play out before we can formulate a consensus.

However, if the Dolphins produce the franchise’s fifth straight winning season, which is a strong possibility if Tagovailoa stays healthy all season, considering he had never produced a losing record in any of his previous four years, the Dolphins will likely have a pick no higher than 16th in the first round. The only other way to put the franchise in position to draft a quarterback early is to maneuver their way up the draft board with trades.

And even if Miami does draft a replacement for Tagovailoa there’s likely going to be growing pains for the rookie, and a bridge quarterback — say former San Francisco and Las Vegas starter Jimmy Garoppolo, who is signed to a one-year deal worth $3.2 million with the Los Angeles Rams — might need to be added just in case.

Once we evaluate all of those alternatives, break-in-case of emergency situations, it’s fair to say Miami has options if they need to move on from Tagovailoa. But are any of them more favorable, more ideal than finding a way to get a deal done with Tagovailoa, keeping the relationship healthy, and moving in the right direction?