Kelly: Dolphins’ margin for error and losses continues to shrink | Opinion

There’s a fine line between a season-saving play and a monumental collapse.

Want an example?

If Davante Adams catches that last-minute back-shoulder pass from Aaron Rodgers and stays in bounds instead of stepping out — subsequently stopping the game clock — the odds the Miami Dolphins tie Sunday’s game in regulation, putting the team in position to pull off the 32-26 overtime win against the New York Jets are slim.

That one misstep would have left Miami 16 seconds in regulation after New York’s field goal, which put the Jets ahead by 3 in that critical moment.

Even if Malik Washington had produced the 45-yard kickoff return that assisted Miami’s final regulation score, the Dolphins probably would have been left one more play at midfield to throw a Hail Mary.

And maybe, if the coin had landed in favor of the Jets, the Dolphins’ postseason hopes, aspirations, dreams, would probably already be extinguished with a Jets touchdown.

But that’s the NFL, a league where you never know the one or two plays — the one or two bounces — that will often decide the outcome of a game.

And sometimes the fate of a season, a regime, or coach.

The Dolphins have clearly been on the negative side of those odd football bounces in losses to Indianapolis, Arizona and Buffalo this season, so they know the consequences.

They know the heartbreak that happens if they don’t get to double-digit wins this season.

“For a minute the last game didn’t look too good,” starting linebacker Jordyn Brooks said. “Everybody just dug a little deep knowing this is the one we have to win right now or next week didn’t mean anything.

“That’s the mentality we have to have this week,” Brooks continued. “This is a playoff game.”

Brooks is referring to this Sunday’s road game against the Houston Texans (6-4), but if we’re being honest that’s the line and mentality the Dolphins have had for a month now, working to dig themselves out of the losing side of the ledger.

But this time it’s for real.

Win on Sunday or make plans for Cancun, the Bahamas or whatever tropical island you would like to visit in early January (Colombia is high on my to-see and experience list).

That’s the situation the Dolphins put themselves in against a Texans team fighting for the AFC South division title, and their own playoff fate.

The Texans can actually clinch the division with a victory against Miami and an Indianapolis loss to the Denver Broncos.

Dolphins need the Indianapolis Colts and Broncos to lose at least two more games to sneak in with 10 victories.

“It creates mental fortitude,” quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said about the team’s backs-against-the-wall mentality.

According to Tagovailoa, Miami’s struggles this season, the tough losses, the cold-weather collapse against Green Bay two weeks ago, should have created “epiphanies,” providing reminders that nobody needs to do more than their job.

“Because this is a big game [don’t] felt like I needed to do more than what my job asked me to do when really, all I need to do is go back the basics and fundamentals,” said Tagovailoa, whose efficient play since his return from a one-month hiatus caused by his Week 2 concussion has jump-started Miami’s offense.

Problem is, this team preparing for Houston hasn’t been good enough to seal their postseason ticket yet.

What team wins in December without a running game, which has been missing for five consecutive games?

What team gets to double-digit wins while producing the second-fewest sacks (24) in the NFL this season?

Under coach Mike McDaniel the Dolphins have had a reputation for being mentally soft, and buckling when the pressure mounts, especially on the road.

Since 2022 the Dolphins came into the season 3-12 against playoff teams, and are currently 0-4 against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Sunday’s game is probably Miami’s last chance to silence that soft narrative, and keep the postseason dreams alive.

“It’s not about lifting more weights, or running extra. It’s about the focus. Lock in. Attention to detail. Overcommunicate,” Brooks said. “If you see something, say something. If something is gray let’s clear it up now and not wait until it’s too late. Put a little more in mentally.”