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Kansas Jayhawks game prediction for men’s basketball season opener against Howard

shreyas laddha
·4 min read

The No. 1-ranked Kansas men’s basketball team will face Howard to begin its 2024-25 season on Monday.

The Jayhawks crushed Washburn in an exhibition game on Tuesday. Howard lost to American University in an exhibition game last week.

Kansas leads the overall series with Howard 3-0, including a 96-68 win in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Below is a scouting report and prediction for the game.

No. 1 Kansas vs. Howard game details

When/where: 7 p.m., Monday, Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)

TV/Streaming: ESPN+

Opponent’s record: 0-0 (last year: 18-17)

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 217

Betting line: Kansas is a 25.5-point favorite

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition. The stats are from last season.

Howard team strengths

  • High expectations: The Bison ranked first in the MEAC’s preseason poll. Howard had 121 points with 12 first-place votes.

  • Potent from deep: Howard shot 37.1% on 3-pointers last season, ranking No. 20 in the nation. Bison guard Marcus Dockery returns. He shot 40% from deep last year.

  • Offensive glass savants: Howard ranked No. 40 in offensive rebounding percentage (33.8%) a year ago. The Bison’s leading rebounder, Bryce Harris, returns — he averaged 7.5 rebounds per game.

Howard team weaknesses

  • Issues defending the long ball: The Bison ranked No. 220 in opposing 3-point percentage (34.3%). The Jayhawks struggled from deep last season but brought in transfers like Zeke Mayo (39.1% on 3-pointers) and David Coit (33.7%) to fix that problem.

  • Turnover issues: Howard struggled to handle the ball last season, ranking 353rd in turnover percentage (21.4).

  • Dreadful defense: The Bison struggled on defense last season, ranking No. 334 in adjusted defensive efficiency (113.9). Adjusted defensive efficiency measures amount of points given up per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.

Howard player to watch

6–foot-4 senior guard Bryce Harris (No. 34)

Howard Bison guard Bryce Harris (34) shoots the ball in the first half against the Wagner Seahawks at UD Arena on March 19, 2024.
Howard Bison guard Bryce Harris (34) shoots the ball in the first half against the Wagner Seahawks at UD Arena on March 19, 2024.

+ 2024 MEAC Preseason Player of the Year

+ Great rebounder (7.5 rebounds per game)

+ Scoring-minded (16.6 PPG)

+ Good 3-point shooter (37.5%)

- Turnover prone (1.7 turnovers per game)

- Not much of a passer (1.7 APG)

Tale of the Tape

via GIPHY

If there’s one player the Jayhawks must pay attention to, it’s Harris.

In this instance, Harris received the ball around the free-throw line and went to work. Although he’s a guard, he isn’t afraid to initiate contact and drive to the rim.

The key for the Jayhawks will be to keep him out of the paint. Last season, 69.4% of his shots were at the rim and he shot 62.5% in that area, compared to 35.4% on 2-point jumpers.

KU defenders need to converge on Harris when he gets to the rim and force someone else to beat them.

Harris isn’t a great passer, so if he’s forced into a challenging situation, there’s a decent chance he could turn the ball over or force up a bad shot.

KU-Howard game prediction

The Jayhawks will more than likely beat the Bison on Monday night — the question is how it will look.

Howard was an NCAA Tournament team last season. The Bison are a formidable non-conference foe compared to many others in the MEAC.

I’m paying attention to how Kansas shoots from deep in this game. Last season, KU struggled from 3 in non-conference games, which was a sign of a problem that lasted the entire season.

It’ll also be worth watching KU’s rotations and how the new transfers mesh with the team’s returning starters from last season: Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams, and Dajuan Harris.

I like KU in this one, but I think the Bison cover the spread.

Kansas 85, Howard 64

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Howard (+25.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 0-0 (25-7 last year)

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 0-0 (16-16 last year)

KU Player to Watch: AJ Storr

The Wisconsin transfer has struggled some to figure out his role through two exhibition games.

Storr is KU’s most crucial transfer, and his play could be key to the Jayhawks making a run down the stretch. His offensive fit is worth watching, as is his effort level on the defensive end.

If he can be decisive on offense without doing too much — and be more locked in defensively than in the exhibition games — it will go a long way in building his trust with coach Bill Self.