Juggernaut Index, No. 18: The Buffalo Bills

The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking and review of NFL teams for fantasy purposes — repeat: FANTASY PURPOSES. Here we concern ourselves with a franchise’s likely contributions to the fantasy player pool. We are not concerned with projected wins and losses. Instead, we’re focused on yards and points. As always, we’re beginning with the league’s least useful teams, working our way toward the elite fantasy juggernauts.

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No team in the NFL ran the ball as successfully as Buffalo last season, and only Carolina ran as often. The Bills led the league in rushing by a comfortable margin, averaging 152.0 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt. They also tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns with 19. So the ground game clearly wasn’t Buffalo’s problem.

But of course we all knew that Rex Ryan’s squad was going to run the ball as if the 1977 title was still winnable. The surprising thing about the Bills’ running game last season was that nobody reached the 1000-yard plateau. LeSean McCoy was limited to only a dozen games due to injury, and he finished with a modest 895 rushing yards and five total scores. Karlos Williams was a revelation as a rookie, massively outproducing McCoy on a per-carry basis (5.6 YPC vs. 4.4) and crossing the goal-line nine times in just 11 games. When the season ended, most of us assumed that Williams had forced his way into a backfield committee in Buffalo.

And then this happened:

And then THIS happened:

Kids, this is no way to handle your business in the offseason.

Williams is now an afterthought for Buffalo — likely to remain with the team, unlikely to make an on-field impact anytime soon. Brutal. Mike Gillislee should open the season as the team’s No. 2 back, and the Bills have also added 31-year-old Reggie Bush as a warm body/return specialist.

McCoy is un-threatened as the featured runner in Buffalo, so there’s little question that his fantasy stock is on the rise. Shady is just one year removed from a 1319-yard campaign in Philly, and we know he’s a capable receiver, too. He caught at least 50 balls in three different seasons with the Eagles. McCoy no longer belongs in the first-round conversation, but I’ve got no beef with his current ADP (20.9). If you can land him near the R2/R3 turn, great. When you select Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham Jr. at the top of a draft, then you’ll probably be looking at Shady on the way back. (I’m taking Ingram or Lacy ahead of him if possible, but it’s very close.)

Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor is likely to finish second on the team in rushing yards again, just as he did last year. Taylor is a gifted runner with big play ability who totaled 568 yards on 104 carries (5.5 YPC) last year, breaking the plane four times. All things considered, he was plenty impressive in his first season as a starting QB. Taylor tossed 20 touchdown passes and only six interceptions over 14 games, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. Rex is completely sold on Taylor, as he should be. Tyrod’s rushing skill gives him a much higher fantasy floor than we’d normally expect from a low-volume passer. Buffalo ranked next-to-last in the NFL in pass attempts last season, averaging just 29.1 per week. Assuming Taylor can remain healthy for a full 16 games — and assuming Sammy Watkins can as well — then it’s easy to see a path to a top-10 or 12 positional finish. If you draft Tyrod as a platoon QB, you won’t be disappointed.

Watkins, clearly, is one of the keys to Taylor’s fantasy value in the year ahead, and he’s an irreplaceable piece in the Bills’ offense. His presence on the field makes life easier for all other Buffalo skill players. Watkins is a highlight machine who was almost unstoppable down the stretch last season, delivering four 100-yard performances and six scores over his last six games. When he’s right, he’s outrageously good. Tweaks and breaks and sprains have been the issues for Watkins thus far in his pro career, and he dealt with a foot malfunction that required surgery during the offseason. He’s back in action now, however, and he deserves consideration as a second or third round fantasy selection. Watkins ranked as the No. 15 scorer at his position last season, and he clearly has top-10 (top-5?) upside in 2016.

As for the rest of Buffalo’s receiving corps, well … it would sure help if this team put the ball in the air more often. The Bills attempted only 465 throws last year, a crazy-low total in this era. Fifteen NFL teams finished with 600-plus attempts in 2015. It’s awfully difficult for an offense to produce more than one starting-quality fantasy receiver on the sort of passing volume offered by the Bills. I suppose you can mess around with Robert Woods or tight end Charles Clay in deeper formats — let’s say 14 or more teams — but those guys don’t belong on cheat sheets in leagues of typical size.

Buffalo’s defense was almost perfectly league-average last season, and they rarely dropped an opposing quarterback (21.0 sacks). The team attempted to address immediate defensive needs in the draft, selecting Clemson DE Shaq Lawson and Alabama LB Reggie Ragland in Round 2, but both players have since suffered significant injuries. Lawson (shoulder) will miss at least six weeks, and Ragland (ACL) is down for the year. So that’s horrible. You won’t be drafting this team’s D/ST, and they won’t see an appealing plus-matchup until perhaps Week 5 (at LA).

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2015 Offensive Stats & Ranks
Points per game – 23.7 (12)
Pass YPG – 208.9 (28)
Rush YPG – 152.0 (1)
Yards per play – 5.7 (6)
Plays per game – 63.5 (20)

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Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Cleveland, 31) San Francisco, 30) Philadelphia, 29) Baltimore, 28) Tennessee, 27) Los Angeles, 26) Miami, 25) Detroit, 24) Chicago, 23) San Diego, 22) Minnesota, 21) Tampa Bay, 20) Atlanta, 19) Washington, 18) Buffalo