Juggernaut Index, No. 13: The Jacksonville Jaguars

The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking and review of NFL teams for fantasy purposes — repeat: FANTASY PURPOSES. Here we concern ourselves with a franchise’s likely contributions to the fantasy player pool. We are not concerned with projected wins and losses. Instead, we’re focused on yards and points. As always, we’re beginning with the league’s least useful teams, working our way toward the elite fantasy juggernauts.

[Join a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for free and make 2016 your season!]

Blake Bortles is either the NFL’s best bad quarterback, or he’s the worst of the good QBs. Not sure. Either way, fantasy owners appreciated his gloriously sloppy 2015 season.

Bortles led the league in fumbles (14), sacks (51) and interceptions (18) last year, a triple crown of despair. He also completed just 58.6 percent of his throws, which of course is terrible. But despite all the giveaways and misfires, Bortles still threw for 4428 yards and 35 touchdowns, ranking as a top-five fantasy quarterback in any scoring system. For our purposes, he was fantastic. In reality, he was something less than stellar.

It’s clear that Bortles benefited from extreme pass volume (606 attempts) and a talented receiving corps. Contrary to popular belief, the Jaguars did not actually spend the entire season in garbage-time, but the team did find itself playing from behind early and often. Such is life on a five-win squad. So it’s fair to say, in a general sense, that game-flow was friendly for Bortles. Also helping his fantasy cause was the fact that Jacksonville rarely ran the football well (92.1 YPG), and almost never in the red-zone. T.J. Yeldon and Denard Robinson combined for only 17 carries and two TDs inside the 10-yard line last season. Meanwhile, Bortles led the NFL in total RZ pass attempts (97), as well as attempts inside the 10 (45) and 5-yard lines (20). The Jags passing game was plenty effective near the end-zone, clearly, but the team was ludicrously one-dimensional.

This year, with Chris Ivory in the backfield mix, Jacksonville has a credible short-yardage/goal-line rushing option — and they gave him a substantial contract, too. I have a tough time believing this team won’t feed Ivory in goal-to-go situations, so that’s a small worry for Bortles owners. I’ve ranked Blake outside my top-10 fantasy QBs, primarily because I expect his touchdown total to dip to the 24-28 range. (Also, I’m not convinced he’s particularly good; I don’t like to bet big on ordinary players).

As for Ivory, it’s entirely possible that he’ll find himself in a 50/50 or 55/45 arrangement with Yeldon, but we have to assume he’ll own the most valuable backfield touches. If he gives us a healthy season, we could be looking at 850 scrimmage yards and 8-10 scores. Yeldon is a decent bet for 900-plus empty yards with 45-50 receptions. If that plays in your league, consider him late.

Allen Robinson broke out in a massive way last year, hauling in 80 passes for an even 1400 yards and 14 spikes on 153 targets. The man has excellent size (6-foot-3) and leaping ability, and he’s earned the full trust of his QB. Robinson was a phenomenal red-zone receiver in 2015, snagging 15 of 22 targets and scoring 12 times. He’s great. No complaints. Even if Jacksonville finds greater run/pass balance this season, there’s no obvious reason to fret about Robinson. He’s a solid bet for double-digit TDs and 1100 yards, owning the RZ chances.

Allen Hurns remains a solid WR3-type, coming off a 1031-yard, 10-TD campaign. He wasn’t as heavily targeted as Robinson last year (105) and he didn’t draw nearly as many RZ looks (13); don’t be shocked if his touchdowns drop by four or five. I can’t build a strong fantasy case for any other wide receiver on this team — not Rashad Greene, definitely not Marquise Lee. Let’s hope the Allens remain fully functional all year. Tight end Julius Thomas missed all of September following hand surgery last season, and he was useful if not spectacular when he returned. If you draft him expecting a 55-600-6 season, you probably won’t be disappointed.

Jacksonville used its first five draft picks on defensive players this spring, landing at least two potential impact guys in DB Jalen Ramsey and LB Myles Jack. So it seems likely the Jaguars D will improve in the year ahead. But let’s try to remember just how horrendous this group was in 2015. The Jags allowed 375.0 net yards and a whopping 28.0 points per game, generating just 18 takeaways. It’s a long road to mediocrity from where Jacksonville was last season.

—

2015 Offensive Stats & Ranks
Points per game – 23.5 (14)
Pass YPG – 256.8 (10)
Rush YPG – 92.1 (27)
Yards per play – 5.5 (15)
Plays per game – 63.2 (23)

—

Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Cleveland, 31) San Francisco, 30) Philadelphia, 29) Baltimore, 28) Tennessee, 27) Los Angeles, 26) Miami, 25) Detroit, 24) Chicago, 23) San Diego, 22) Minnesota, 21) Tampa Bay, 20) Atlanta, 19) Washington, 18) Buffalo, 17) Kansas City, 16) Oakland, 15) NY Giants, 14) Indianapolis, 13) Jacksonville