Josh Allen is not human, Justin Tucker very much is, 49ers window is closing and 10 things we learned in Week 11

The Buffalo Bills did what the Buffalo Bills do. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season.

2024 marks the fourth straight year in which the Bills have beaten the Chiefs before the playoffs. As encouraging as these wins have been, none have led to a Super Bowl breakthrough; two of them simply served as window dressing for a Kansas City win in the postseason. Will this January serve more of the same? Or was it the precursor to Buffalo's inevitable glory?

Chiefs-Bills wasn't the only gave with major playoff implications played Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens ceded control of the AFC North to the Pittsburgh Steelers, for now. The San Francisco 49ers continued what's become a troubling slump. And the New York Jets continued to spelunk in a reverse-Sisyphus quest to find rock bottom.

What stood out most from a busy slate? Let’s talk about it.

[Please bear with me for any Twitter embed issues. Our editing software has become a whole problem on that front the past couple weeks. Rest assured, if there’s a play alluded to in the text it’s worth clicking through to see if it didn’t make it into the article itself.]

1. The New York Jets, and stop me if you've heard this before, are cooked

Let's start with the good news. The Jets scored more than 24 points for the first time this season. They scored more points against the Indianapolis Colts than they had the last two weeks combined. Aaron Rodgers threw two touchdown passes without an interception and led his team back from a 13-0 deficit.

This did not matter. The Jets still lost to the Colts at home, despite their opponent starting the player who'd been the NFL's least efficient quarterback by a long shot. Rodgers's offense remained stuck in neutral far too long:

A defense that's been mostly aimless since firing head coach Robert Saleh after Week 5 continued to flounder. Anthony Richardson came into Week 11 having completed just 44.4 percent of his passes. He'd been benched in favor of a nearly 40-year-old Joe Flacco. He'd never before played an NFL game in which he threw at least five passes, completed more than half of them and had a passer rating better than 99.0.

And yet, against New York's once proud defense:

Richardson was a menace through the air and on the ground, where he scored the majority of Indianapolis's touchdowns. Sunday marked the first time in his career where he'd thrown at least 30 passes and completed two-thirds of them. It was the second time in his career where he'd thrown for at least one touchdown without an interception. This could have been a statement game for interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich's defense; instead it was further evidence Saleh was the haggard thread keeping everything from unraveling.

The Jets have given up at least 23 points in five of the six games they've played without Saleh on the sideline. The 26.2 points per game they've allowed in that stretch would rank 26th in the league this winter, right next to the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. In terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed per snap, no one in the NFL has been worse than Ulbrich's guys.

This was not what Rodgers signed up for. His legacy was supposed to be secured by a defense that had finished in the top five in yards allowed the last two seasons. Instead, that group has crumbled despite the presence of stars like Quincy Williams, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. They were the balm that could soothe his aches on the rough days certain to chase down a soon-to-be 41-year-old man coming off major injury.

Instead, it's placed the onus of victory right on Rodgers's shoulders, creating the kind of environment that helped fuel his dissatisfaction in Green Bay. Rodgers played a perfectly fine game. Statistically, his 114.1 passer rating makes this one of the three best performances of his 2024.

On the field, however, it was a much more generic game than we've grown accustomed to from a special player:

Rodgers had a single completion that went more than 11 yards downfield. He ran the ball just once for seven yards. He robbed us all of the opportunity to watch one of his glorious Hail Marys by taking a sack at the worst possible time.

This is, effectively, who Aaron Rodgers is now. He's only had two games with more than two passing touchdowns since 2022. His yards per scramble have dropped from 7.8 in his last pre-injury season (2022) to 4.8 this fall. His 3.2 deep balls per game are his lowest since an injury-marred 2017.

Father Time has come for Rodgers's game. While he's been able to mitigate that with his vision and a still lively arm, there's no denying he's not the consistent terrifying presence he once was. He's nearing the game manager stage of his career, albeit with more zip on his passes than Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees before him.

Roethlisberger and Brees still made it to the playoffs because they had stout defenses and playmakers around them. Rodgers has Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, each of whom can create short-term magic on their own. What they cannot do, apparently, is overcome the curse of what's somehow become the NFL's worst defense in recent weeks.

That leaves Rodgers in search of a six-game winning streak just to snap New York's eight-year span of losing seasons. The Jets are a mess right now in a way that extends beyond the issues of a veteran quarterback for whom they paid dearly.

New York piled up expectations this offseason just to smash them back into dust. All their efforts to rebuild on the fly this fall have failed mightily. But hey, at least they got a head start on their 2025 coaching search.

2. Firing Shane Waldron didn't fix the Bears, but it reminded us how great Caleb Williams could be

The Chicago Bears didn't defend their home turf Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. This was not Caleb Williams's fault.

Williams, playing under interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown after former play-caller Shane Waldron's firing, thrived in an offense that prioritized getting the ball out early and turning upfield at the first sign of pressure. The offensive line that had gotten him run over in a 19-3 Week 10 loss to the New England Patriots held up well enough to limit Williams to only one sack in the game's first 57 minutes.

Targets over the middle were sparse, but ultimately Williams spread the ball out and maximized his targets in a badly needed bounce-back game. From Caleb Williams is extremely fixable, even if the Bears once again had the most Bears finish possible:

Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social)

The Jaguars played exactly like a team that's about to fire its head coach

5. David Montgomery properly respected a legend

Montgomery scored a touchdown to open the Detroit Lions' scoring Sunday. This itself is not newsworthy. The last time the Lions failed to find the end zone on the ground was back in 2022 (24 games ago). The veteran back is thriving once again alongside Jahmyr Gibbs and running behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines.

Week 11's touchdown celebration, however, deserves further scrutiny.

While other dance trends have been a staple in the league -- most notably Justin Jefferson's griddy -- Montgomery threw it back to a true legend of the game. He channeled fellow stars like Brandon Graham, Steve Smith and, uh, Jared Odrick by putting on his big shoes, humming the riff to The Champs' hit Tequila and paying homage to the one and only Pee-Wee Herman.

Hell yeah.

Montgomery's Pee-Wee dance was one of seven Lions touchdown celebrations Sunday afternoon. Was it better than Jameson Williams copying Marshawn Lynch (and almost certainly drawing a league fine for grabbing his nethers)? You be the judge.

6. Sam Darnold is dancing on a razor's edge at the circle of trust

The Minnesota Vikings had a wonderful offseason. Week 11 was proof.

Pass rushing veterans Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard bullied Will Levis into two sacks, three quarterback hits and four tackles for loss. In-season acquisition Cam Akers had a receiving touchdown. Veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore continued to provide valuable coverage along the boundary.

None of these additions, however, has had the lasting impact of the journeyman quarterback whose $10 million contract has quickly flipped from a minor overpay to a significant bargain.

Sam Darnold continued his streak of big games for the Vikings, tossing a pair of touchdown passes and running for a third to keep Minnesota in the hunt for the NFC's top seed. He continued to showcase why he isn't quite trustable at the same time.

Darnold is a chaos engine thanks to his penchant for big throws downfield. He also sows doubt about his abilities thanks to occasional brain farts that lob balls into double coverage or whip toss sweeps hard and behind his tailback for a drive-killing turnover.

Darnold has exactly one game this season in which he hasn't fumbled or been intercepted. He holds onto the ball longer in the pocket than any starter but Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. That's led to a bottom five sack rate despite a merely below average pressure rate. Darnold has been given the freedom to be the quarterback he believes himself to be. Sometimes, that's wonderful!

Sometimes, it's not!

Often times, the border between those two nations is razor thin. Anyone who saw him fall off despite flashes of... well, not greatness, but pretty-goodness as a Jet or Carolina Panther knows he's always a few missed coverages away from spelunking into the caverns of his own mind and overthinking his way back to the bench. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has been quick to cut off those notions, however.

That's part of Darnold's long leash -- understanding his past makes him vulnerable to spiraling if asked to adjust his game too harshly.

This is the trust that's turned Darnold into the league's most accurate deep ball thrower through 11 weeks. O'Connell can deal with that because he's got Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (and, eventually, a fully healthy T.J. Hockenson) to bail him out of tough situations. That doesn't mean Darnold could be the answer for another quarterback-needy team, but he's been one hell of a pickup for O'Connell and the 8-2 Vikings.

Minnesota's going to keep giving Darnold the green light to dance in the pocket and take risks because he's proven he can return a worthy reward. Also, because we've seen what tweaking his game in-season can do to his overall level of play. The Vikings keep gambling and winning; they have no choice but to ride it until that hot streak comes to an end.

7. The Atlanta Falcons are making us feel stupid for believing in them (as is tradition)

Oh dang, another "stop if you've heard this before" headline. Ah well, cliche though it may be, this is exactly where we've landed.

The Falcons began their season 6-3. With two close wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they appeared to have sewed up the NFC South title halfway through the 2024 season. After starting slowly while recovering from a torn Achilles, Kirk Cousins emerged as a top 10 quarterback occasionally eye to eye with this season's MVP candidates.

Then, things got familiarly frustrating for Falcons fans. First, a loss to arch rival New Orleans days after the Saints had fired head coach Dennis Allen. But that's fine; losing a tight rivalry game against a fired-up team getting a post-coach bounce is understandable.

Getting shredded into breakfast hash by Bo Nix? That's... something else.

The defense that held three of its first five opponents to fewer than 180 passing yards collapsed against the sixth quarterback selected in last spring's draft. Nix had:

• the first 300-plus passing yard performance of his career

• the first four-touchdown performance of his career

• his first single game passer rating above 125.0

all in a 38-6 destruction of a once competent Falcons defense. Primaries like Jessie Bates, Justin Simmons and A.J. Terrell were all in the lineup and it did not matter because Atlanta had no answer for the most composed version of Nix we've ever seen on Sundays.

Credit where it's due; Nix's growth this season has been impressive if not linear. When he's given time to set his feet and drive the ball downfield he's proven he can be the difference between a win and a loss. On Sunday, that manifested in eight completions on nine attempts that traveled at least nine yards downfield -- racking up 184 yards, one touchdown and a 155.8 passer rating in the process.

The Falcons may have been able to counter this if Cousins could even approached Bo Nix at Mile High Stadium. Instead, top wideouts Drake London and Darnell Mooney had just five catches on 11 targets. Kyle Pitts had one catch for nine yards. Cousins was sacked in one in 10 dropbacks and turned in his second-straight zero-touchdown, one-interception performance.

The good news is there's plenty of room to work through growing pains. Atlanta is still 1.5 games ahead of the second-place Buccaneers in the NFC South. But it's easy to see the cracks and assume they'll spread when you're dealing with a veteran quarterback with a lack of lasting postseason success and a franchise that, well, same.

This is the sword dangling over the Falcons' throne. Atlanta has spent 2024 proving it can hang with great teams but also implode spectacularly at the smallest sign of resistance. Which version will show up in the playoffs? That'll be the fun part for non-Falcons fans to figure out and torture within the state limits of Georgia.

8. Geno Smith might have closed the 49ers championship window

Geno Smith had never beaten the San Francisco 49ers as a starting quarterback. This year's 49ers team, however, is very different from the perennial NFC title game invitees that preceded it.

On Sunday, Smith overcame some early struggles to shred the Niners defense when it counted most. After opening the second half with an interception, he completed 14 of his final 16 passes for 130 yards, erasing a pair of late deficits to earn his first win in San Francisco and keep Seattle alive in a turbulent race for the NFC West crown.

Smith was, as is his hallmark, accurate as hell to maximize his offense on a day where his running backs averaged only 3.2 yards per carry. His 16.4 completion percentage over expected (CPOE) was his highest of the season -- impressive stuff for a player who has ranked in the top 10 in that category each of the last two years.

That's all great for the Seahawks, but it could be closing the blinds on a championship window San Francisco would stay open at least a few months longer. The 49ers have slumped before, but those losing streaks either quickly dissipated or were the result of devastating quarterback injuries (and sometimes even that didn't make a difference). 2024, so far, feels different.

Over the last two years, San Francisco was undefeated against division foes with the exception of a meaningless 2023 Week 18 game that pit Sam Darnold against Carson Wentz. This year Brock Purdy is 1-3 against those rivals. The young quarterback was 2023's most efficient quarterback but has backslid from "great" to merely "above average" in the Niners' 5-5 start.

What's the culprit there? Kyle Shanahan's offense has always been able to glean the most from an underwhelming quarterback thanks to a cache of dynamic playmakers who could turn short targets into long gains. The 49ers have led the league in yards after catch (YAC) five of the last six years and never finished lower than third place in that stretch.

This season, they rank 17th, dropping from 6.6 YAC to 5.2. Not having Christian McCaffrey in the lineup most of the season and losing a rusty Brandon Aiyuk to injury played a role there. Even so, Shanahan's offense isn't hitting the way it once did.

San Francisco averaged 3.5 yards of separation between intended target and nearest defender in Purdy's first two seasons in the league -- a figure that was slightly above average compared to other offenses. His 2024 targets average 3.0 yards of separation per throw -- the lowest number in the NFL this fall.

As a result, Purdy's had to look downfield for bigger gains rather than rely on higher-percentage dump-offs to now-covered players. His average throw distance has gone up (from 8.2 yards to 8.9) and his accuracy has gone down (from 69 percent to 64 percent). Those are all modest drops, but it's been enough to blow gaskets in the Niners' high-octane offense.

Further complicating things is a defense that's gone from elite to average. San Francisco ranked first in scoring defense in 2022 and third in 2023. It sat at 17th coming into Sunday's game with the Seahawks. The team's once relentless pass rush has dropped from 10th to 15th in pressure rate this fall. Dre Greenlaw and Tanaloa Hufanga have been hurt and De'Vondre Campbell is looking like a 31-year-old off-ball defender.

The final product are two pieces that aren't quite good enough. The 49ers are 5-5, and while they've come back from worse spots to create headaches for the NFC -- they were 3-5 before rallying to the NFC title game in 2022 -- this year's problems feel different. Returns from Greenlaw and Hufanga (playing in a cast) will help, as will getting McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall in tune with the offense.

Even so, 2024 has been a clear step backward for San Francisco. With a bunch of tough contract decisions looming, this may be the end of their title hopes as currently constructed.

9. Josh Allen continued the Buffalo Bills' regular season mastery of the Kansas City Chiefs

For the fourth straight season, the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Now Buffalo has to hope it can break the streak on the other side of that mirror -- the one that's seen Kansas City end its season in the playoffs three of the last four years.

The Bills did exactly what needed to be done to beat the Chiefs. They learned from mistakes of the Denver Broncos (settled for a field goal) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (chose not to go for two in a one-point game and opted for overtime). Rather than await the inevitable and give Patrick Mahomes the ball with a five-point deficit and more than two minutes to play, head coach Sean McDermott trusted Josh Allen on fourth-and-two.

You should always trust Josh Allen on fourth-and-two.

Allen did what he did best, embracing a running style best described as "marauding" and dusting the Chiefs' defense for a game-sealing touchdown in a moment that could have been a precursor to Kansas City's 10-0 start. Instead, Mahomes took the loss, Taylor Swift haters quietly fist bumped (weird) and someone dropped off a bottle of champagne at Mercury Morris's grave in accordance to his last will and testament.

Importantly, Sunday's win felt like a moment where the Bills stole Mahomes's magic. They took away his comeback opportunity. They held him to 181 total yards on 35 dropbacks (5.2 yards per pass play). They pressured him just enough to make him rely on a group of playmakers that isn't the hydra it once was.

Mahomes threw three touchdown passes but countered that with a pair of interceptions. He continued a good season that doesn't quite live up to his level of greatness -- a designation that didn't matter when he was 9-0 and barely does now that he's 9-1. This may not make a difference in the long run for Kansas City.

For Buffalo, however, it's huge. It's yet more hope the nail can at some point defeat the hammer. More importantly, it's validation after an 8-2 record came devoid of impressive wins. Before Sunday, the Bills had one victory over an opponent with a winning record and that was against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. After an offseason of roster turnover, it was fair to wonder if this hot start was merely the product of an easy schedule.

Being the first blemish on the Chiefs' resume changes that. A defense that unloaded several key veterans rose to the occasion.

Allen did the rest. That's not a bad recipe for a Super Bowl breakthrough.

10. Fantasy team you absolutely didn’t want to field in Week 11

• QB: Russell Wilson, Steelers (205 passing yards, 1 rushing yard, four sacks, 9.9 fantasy points)

• RB: Nick Chubb, Browns (50 rushing yards, 5.0 fantasy points)

• RB: Tony Pollard, Titans (15 rushing yards, two catches, 14 receiving yards, 4.9 fantasy points)

• WR: Terry McLaurin, Commanders (one catch, 10 yards, 2.0 fantasy points)

• WR: Romeo Doubs, Packers (one catch, 17 yards, 2.7 fantasy points)

• WR: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (two catches, 19 yards, 3.9 fantasy points)

• TE: Kyle Pitts, Falcons (one catch, nine yards, 1.9 fantasy points)

• D/ST: Kansas City Chiefs (30 points allowed, one interception, -2.0 fantasy points)

Total: 28.3 points

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Josh Allen is not human, Justin Tucker very much is, 49ers window is closing and 10 things we learned in Week 11