Jared Goff would be MVP (if the Lions didn't make things so easy), Tua Tagovailoa has a (slight) case and Week 13 QB ranks

Jared Goff is thriving in an offense stocked with playmakers and one of the league's most highly regarded minds calling plays as coordinator. By those powers combined, he's the NFL's most efficient quarterback through two-thirds of the 2024 season -- but he's only got the fourth-best odds of any player to win regular season most valuable player honors.

That's better than Tua Tagovailoa, whose season has been marred by a head injury that simultaneously allowed him to showcase his value in Miami. Tagovailoa has the Dolphins on a three-game winning streak that has them back in the playoff hunt (sort of). He's been able to maximize returns from his non-Tyreek Hill players, including Jonnu Smith and Jaylen Waddle. But with his team at 5-6 and having missed four-plus games, his MVP argument is, well, a rough sled.

Which quarterback has been the best through Week 12? Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.

Expected points added is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 35 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 192 snaps through 12 weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

Anthony Richardson is in a pretty deep hole, even if he's not as bad as he seems. If you split up the rest of the league’s starters into tiers, it looks something like this:

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.

1. Could Tua Tagovailoa make an MVP case?

1. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.183 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.180

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.167

4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.159

5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.157

Goff has MVP bonafides but may get shut out in the voting because his degree of difficulty is less than the two top quarterbacks in the betting odds. Whether that's a fair assessment (Allen) or a perceived one based on past supporting casts (Jackson) is up for debate, but the Lions' ability to win even when he has a down game is great for his team and terrible for his award chances.

Tagovailoa and Burrow are thriving for teams with talented receiving corps and limited playoff prospects. Their 2024s should not be overlooked, even though they will be when it comes time to vote for All-Pro teams.

2. Nearly elite

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.150 EPA+CPOE composite

7. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.148

8. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.147

9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.141

10. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.140

11. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.138

12. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.135

13. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.126

The Seahawks bottled up Murray and forced him to be a non-factor in Week 12, knocking him out of the top 10 in what's been an otherwise encouraging comeback season. Mayfield continues to hold things together in Tampa despite injuries to his wideout and a general dearth of pass catchers. Purdy has been solid, but San Francisco has been unable to replicate its run-after-catch success and it's affected the 49ers offense as a whole.

Daniels is fascinating. He's cooled after a hot start and is facing the fact his offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, built a reputation as an innovator unable to change his ways once the season begins. He was 15-8 before November in his final three seasons as the Cardinals' head coach and 7-20 afterward. Can Dan Quinn find a way to recharge his quarterback? Or is Washington doomed to fade?

3. Capable of way more than the rankings suggest

14. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.112 EPA+CPOE composite

15. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.110

16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.101

17. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.097

18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.082

19. Matthew Stafford, Indianapolis Colts: 0.079

In this tier are five quarterbacks you'd feel comfortable turning to in a playoff game. And also Fields, whose presence remains valuable as Russell Wilson (0.121 composite) begins to backslide.

Herbert remains massively underrated in this metric, which paints him as an average passer even though he's carrying an understaffed receiving corps toward a playoff berth. Love finally had a game without a turnover and it would have been even better had Christian Watson been able to hang onto a 50-plus yard rainbow that should have been a walk-in touchdown vs. the 49ers. Smith is driving the NFC West's current leader and his 9.9 percent bad throw rate is the lowest in the NFL.

4. A genuinely weird group of high potential and shattered dreams

20. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts: 0.074 EPA+CPOE composite

21. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns: 0.073

22. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.069

23. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.060

24. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.059

25. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.055

26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.053

27. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.050

Nix is making an earnest run at rookie of the year honors, in part because he's been able to adjust and grow into new pages of his NFL playbook while Jayden Daniels has not. Nix has thrown eight touchdowns without a turnover over the last three weeks and would be 3-0 if not for a last-second blocked kick against the Chiefs. Prescott ranking below former (Jones) and future (Rodgers) deposed New York quarterbacks can't feel great after the Cowboys gave him the most expensive contract in league history.

5. Wait, you're not supposed to be down here

28. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.044 EPA+CPOE composite

29. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.044

30. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.038

31. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.033

32. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014

33. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.012

34. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.010

Welp, Stroud and Levis are statistically similar, which is somehow bad news for both the Texans AND the Titans. Levis also just out-dueled Stroud thanks to more inopportune Houston turnovers and uncharacteristic defensive lapses.

Williams and Young have each shown upward mobility, which shouldn't be surprising considering they were both No. 1 overall picks yet somehow is because there's so little trust in the Bears or Panthers to develop them. Watson played enough snaps pre-Achilles injury to linger in these rankings the rest of 2024, just like his immovable contract (awarded after more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as "predatory behavior") will linger on Cleveland's roster the next two years.

6. It's not quite as bad as it looks (but it's still bad

35. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.029 EPA+CPOE composite

Richardson had a terrible advanced stats score in Week 12. This was partially his fault but also a function of a formula that doesn't factor in drops or penalties that negate big plays.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Jared Goff would be MVP (if the Lions didn't make things so easy), Tua Tagovailoa has a (slight) case and Week 13 QB ranks