Jake DeBrusk: Over or Under 30 Goals?

If we're talking about players with untapped potential, DeBrusk is certainly on that list. Despite being well into his prime — he turns 28 in October — DeBrusk has never managed to play a full 82-game season or score more than 50 points.

His raw stats suggest a player who can do so much more. He's scored 20 goals at least three times, including in back-to-back seasons, scores a lot of his goals at even strength and plays in all situations. Over the past three seasons, only David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand have scored more goals for the Bruins than DeBrusk.

His inconsistency has been maddening and even requested a trade from the Bruins twice. His overall totals might look good, but DeBrusk's also incredibly streaky. Last season, he scored just one goal through his first 16 games, and then scored nearly half his goals (8 of 19) during a three-week stretch from Dec. 30 to Jan. 22.

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It's a big reason why DeBrusk is rarely a season-long hold. Getting moved all over the lineup and inconsistent production will do that, even though he provides decent shot volume and last season eclipsed 100 hits. He was rostered in barely half of Yahoo leagues, a number that should increase in 2024-25.

Hopefully, the inconsistency in his role and production are in the rearview mirror as he joins the Canucks, where he is assured of a top-six role alongside one of their two elite centers in Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller.

The Canucks' current projected forward lineup:

Jake DeBrusk - J.T. Miller - Brock Boeser
Nils Hoglander - Elias Pettersson - Daniel Sprong
Dakota Joshua - Teddy Blueger - Conor Garland
Danton Heinen - Pius Suter - Kiefer Sherwood

ex: Vasily Podkolzin, Phil Di Giuseppe, Nils Aman

Related: Elias Lindholm: Easy Over on 60 Points?

It's a pretty crowded forward group with a lot of moving parts. But if Hoglander remains with Pettersson, as he did for much of last season, that puts DeBrusk on a line with Miller and Boeser. That's a great spot to be in, and it's going to lead to minutes on the first power play unit where they will be joined by Pettersson and Quinn Hughes.

But with so many forwards who can move up and down the lineup, can DeBrusk afford to be streaky and inconsistent? The Canucks surprised everyone last season but they won't do so this season, and it's debatable if their defense has improved with a re-jigged blue line and question marks surrounding Thatcher Demko's health.

Rick Tocchet has pushed all the right buttons so far, and DeBrusk could be a challenge since neither Bruce Cassidy nor Jim Montgomery, both Jack Adams-caliber coaches, could bring out the best from DeBrusk for very long.

To get to 30 goals, DeBrusk will have to play more minutes, line up with elite linemates, shoot the puck a bit more, stay healthy and be a much more consisten tproducer. Over the past three seasons, he's scored at a 26-goal pace while playing on the secondary power play units. It's certainly doable, and combine that with 100 hits, DeBrusk could turn into a very valuable banger league fantasy asset. Last season, only 12 players managed to score at least 30 goals and register at least 100 hits.

DeBrusk could be a very good late-round value pick but a lot needs to go his way. He's certainly set up to reach career highs across the board, but there's also been enough evidence for me to remain skeptical, especially on a team that could see Joshua, Garland, Sprong, Podkolzin and top prospect Jonathan Lekkerimaki challenge for top-six minutes. If DeBrusk can't stick in the Bruins' top six while playing with elite talent, how does he do it with the Canucks? What could be different here?

My initial projections (subject to change) has DeBrusk scoring 25 goals on 188 shots with 109 hits while averaging around 18 minutes per game, including both PP and PK.

How do you think DeBrusk will fare in the 2024-25 season?

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