Italy’s renaissance act lands in Cardiff to threaten wooden spoon for Wales

What is Italian for joie de vivre? The positive energy permeating Italian rugby was encapsulated by Paolo Garbisi’s early mishap at the Stadio Olimpico last Saturday.

Tasked with a simple penalty to open the scoring against Scotland, the fly-half watched the ball slip off the tee as he prepared to kick: a comical replay of his last-ditch attempt against France that bounced off a post. Despite the painful recent memory, Garbisi clearly appreciated the humour of history repeating itself. He smiled as he replaced the ball, calmly slotted three points as the timer ticked down, and jogged away laughing.

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Garbisi would have the last laugh too, his cool and sweetly-struck 72nd-minute kick securing Italy’s first home Six Nations victory since 2013. They travel to Cardiff for a meeting with Wales that promises to be fascinating, not least because the Azzurri’s previous visit featured Ange Capuozzo’s spectacular matchwinning turn of 2022.

Warren Gatland’s men are facing the unthinkable prospect of losing all five championship games and their first wooden spoon since 2003. Their motivation could scarcely have been greater even before George North’s midweek announcement that Saturday’s encounter, his 121st appearance for Wales, will be his last.

But under their new coach, Gonzalo Quesada, Italy bring form and momentum after the success against Scotland. Back-to-back victories and a draw against Les Bleus would add up to a sensational tournament, so they have little to lose, leaving Wales to contemplate the risk of humiliation.

While his predecessor, Kieran Crowley, admirably – perhaps recklessly – committed to expansive attack, the former Stade Français head coach and Argentina fly-half Quesada has achieved better balance.

In the past five tournaments Italy conceded a cumulative average of 183 points across five matches: this year, four rounds in, they have conceded just 105. They are on course to finish well ahead of that curve, a collective improvement that has created a platform for progress.

The squad is loaded with Benetton Treviso players, doubtless helping cohesion, but that was also the case under Crowley. It is partly down to Quesada’s effective use of resources that they seem to have more options.

Martin Page-Relo was excellent at scrum-half last weekend, and Quesada’s decision to replace him after 50 minutes looked surprising, especially considering his goalkicking ability. But Page-Relo’s replacement, Stephen Varney, immediately justified the change by nipping over for Italy’s third try and now starts against Wales.

Louis Lynagh’s decision to declare for Italy and sign for Benetton from 2024-25 was a boon and the Harlequin was thrust into the squad last month by Quesada. His first international score was a high-class affair, created by a perceptive grubber kick by Garbisi that exposed space behind Scotland’s defensive line.

The muscular and dynamic centres, Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello, have been outstanding and Gatland’s reinstatement of North and Nick Tompkins to his XV sets up an enthralling battle in midfield.

The industry of Exeter’s Ross Vintcent has also been notable but the back-rower drops to the bench in Cardiff, with Lorenzo Cannone starting at No 8. The inspirational captain, Michele Lamaro, made an incredible 27 tackles last week and finally claimed a Six Nations win in Rome while the performance of Capuozzo, always an attacking threat, also exemplified the team’s defensive uptick. Italy’s hero of 2022 is ruled out with a broken finger so Lorenzo Pani comes in at full-back.

In round one, England’s embryonic blitz defence afforded the hosts space to roam, but the efficiency with which they seized their chances was still impressive. Italy lost 27-24, and perhaps the opportunities created against Steve Borthwick’s side and the narrow margin of defeat helped to foster belief.

There was no disgrace in losing to Ireland in round two although being prevented from scoring is never pleasant. Quesada, calm under pressure as well as honest, gave an unflinching assessment after the 36-0 trouncing: “We need to have the ball, we need to improve our set piece, we need to improve our defence, and what we do with the ball afterwards.”

Add another tick for Quesada for delivering on his stated aims: in round three a resolute defensive shift against France in Lille kept the Azzurri in touch. Fabien Galthié’s team wasted opportunities through inaccuracy, but Italy’s discipline was key to them so nearly achieving a monumental victory.

An unlikely set of results on Saturday could lead to a third-place finish for the Azzurri, and it all feels a long way from a deflating World Cup last year. Has Quesada sparked a revolution, or is he benefiting from the foundations laid by Crowley? Italy are enjoying life, either way, and another valuable opportunity awaits in Cardiff.