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Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov prediction, pick: Can ex-champ get back on track at UFC Saudi Arabia?

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MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 250 main event between Israel Adesanya and Nassourdine Imavov.

Israel Adesanya UFC Fight Night 250 preview

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Staple info:

  • Record: 24-4 MMA, 13-4 UFC

  • Height: 6'4" Age: 35 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80"

  • Last fight: Submission loss to Dricus Du Plessis (Aug. 17, 2024)

  • Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)

  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing

  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC middleweight champion

+ Regional MMA titles

+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)

+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)

+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt

+ 16 knockout victories

+ 6 first-round finishes

+ Knockout power

+ Consistent pace and pressure

+ Superb feints and footwork

+ Creative striking flow

^ Variates well to the body

+ Dynamic kicking arsenal

+ Improved counter wrestling

^ Underhooks, getups, separations

Nassourdine Imavov UFC Fight Night 250 preview

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Staple info:

  • 15-4 MMA, 7-2 UFC

  • Height: 6'3" Age: 28 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75"

  • Last fight: Decision win over Brendan Allen (Sep. 28, 2024)

  • Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida)

  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai

  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA title

+ 6 knockout victories

+ 4 submission wins

+ 7 first-round finishes

+ Knockout power

+ Solid feel for range and movement

+ Works well off of lead hand

^ Hard hooks and uppercuts

+ Strong inside the clinch

^ Frames well for knees and elbows

+ Strikes well off the breaks

+ Serviceable wrestling ability

^ Defensively and offensively

+ Deceptive front-choke acumen

+ Grapples well from topside

Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov point of interest: Striking with the 'Stylebender'

PERTH, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 18: Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa fights Israel Adesanya of Nigeria in the middleweight championship fight during UFC 305 at RAC Arena on August 18, 2024 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
PERTH, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 18: Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa fights Israel Adesanya of Nigeria in the middleweight championship fight during UFC 305 at RAC Arena on August 18, 2024 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Adesanya took to martial arts at a young age and is no stranger to dealing with power on the big stage. A cunning martial artist, Adesanya earned his moniker with a creative striking flow that helped him accrue titles in both the boxing and kickboxing arenas.

Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to help establish his reads and set up his shots accordingly. The former UFC middleweight champ keeps whipping right hands and crushing check hooks on a hair-trigger, while offering pinpoint counter-crosses when cleverly shifting to his southpaw stance on retreat.

When feeling in stride, the 35-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether they’re powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood in the water, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.

From hand traps that parlay into elbows, to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges that will come in handy for this contest – particularly as time wears on. But for as talented as Adesanya is, he, too, is not beyond bested by a fighter with a better game plan and tactics.

Enter Nassourdine Imavov.

Although he appears to possess a natural aptitude for countering, Imavov also has a penchant for piecing together offense off of his lead hand.

From active feints to sneaky hooks off of his jab, Imavov seems to have a solid sense of range that helps fuel his attacks. And when Imavov can corral his opposition toward the cage, the Russia-born fighter is not afraid to unleash everything from hooking combinations to flying knees.

Nevertheless, Imavov’s low-handed guard and sometimes lackadaisical approach to his offense have cost him both when coming forward (in the form of counters) and when going backward in extended exchanges (as Imavov’s head will also go upright when retreating in straight lines).

Imavov, who recently relocated his training camp to Henri Hooft's Kill Cliff FC, has looked much more competent and confident in exchanges since leaving his longtime home of the MMA Factory in France.

Hooft may come off like Baron von Trapp from "The Sound of Music," but the man clearly knows how to instill solid striking fundamentals into his fighters – so I'll be curious to see what the Dutch coach can do with someone like Imavov.

Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Sep 3, 2022; Paris, FRANCE; Nassourdine Imavov (red gloves) and Joaquin Buckley (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Accor Arena. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 3, 2022; Paris, FRANCE; Nassourdine Imavov (red gloves) and Joaquin Buckley (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Accor Arena. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Despite both fighters preferring to make their money on their feet, no one should be shocked if this party hits the floor on Saturday.

Even though the French fighter doesn’t have many takedown attempts on the stat sheet, Imavov’s offensive nature often allows him to crash into clinch space in exchanges. Imavov will sometimes parlay this momentum into opportunistic level-changing takedown attempts that either score or allow him to secure his foes along the fence.

When it comes to clinch fighting, Imavov has seemingly absorbed a lot of the muay Thai swagger seen in a lot of Fernand Lopez fighters, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 28-year-old utilize his solid framing game in close to land some vicious elbows and knees of his own.

However, if Imavov and his new team do decide to implement some closed-quarter combat, they may run into some stylistic static when trying to close in on Adesanya. Aside from learning how to better fight to his frame, Adesanya has always had a solid presence in the clinch.

Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown a surprising amount of clinch savvy in regard to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper headspace to help keep strikes chambered off the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle Imavov's approaches.

Even when revisiting his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of whizzers and underhook leverage.

Since that time, Adesanya has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling and wrestling under coaches like Frank Hickman, smartly fighting grips and protecting his hips while seeking separations, typically while using the cage for assistance. That said, Adesanya – as seen in his last fight – is not beyond exposing back when scrambling back to his base and will need to becareful against Imavov.

Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the former champion, listing Adesanya -164 and Imavov +128 via FanDuel.

Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov prediction, pick

PERTH, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 18: Israel Adesanya of Nigeria walks out to the octagon to fight Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa in the Middleweight championship fight during UFC 305 at RAC Arena on August 18, 2024 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
PERTH, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 18: Israel Adesanya of Nigeria walks out to the octagon to fight Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa in the Middleweight championship fight during UFC 305 at RAC Arena on August 18, 2024 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Although the betting line opened a little wider, I'm not shocked to see money trickle in on the underdog in Imavov.

Fight fans' fetishization of fighters from Dagestan aside, Imavov has shown marked improvements since changing up his training camp situation and is quietly one of the more well-rounded fighters in his weight class (which, granted, is middleweight: a division that's traditionally been full of specialists, old men and weirdsmobiles).

Imavov is also the younger party, which is an annoying but undeniable metric in this game.

Adesanya may not be ancient at 35 years of age, but I can't say that I don't understand why some would question where the City Kickboxing product is at after losing three of his last four fights. Nevertheless, I still find myself siding with "The Last Stylebender" in this spot.

Despite getting hurt on the feet en route to losing to Dricus Du Plessis in his last outing, Adesanya's skills and athletic conditioning appear to still be in working order. Imavov might be the younger and more explosive striker, but "The Sniper" has shown a propensity to flag in three-round affairs throughout his career (especially if there's grappling involved).

For that reason, I have a hard time trusting Imavov when it comes to success in the latter rounds. And if Imavov does decide to go against his own stylistic trends and proactively wrestle, his lack of a 'game over' submission prowess will likely turn his efforts into diminishing returns given his suspect gas tank.

Add in the fact that Imavov will be going against a superior lead-hand operator who can punish his legs at range and counter his aggression with hooks, and I can't help but pick Adesanya to win by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Adesanya by decision

Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov start time, where to watch

As the main event, Adesanya and Imavov are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 2 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+. In Saudi Arabia, the event starts early in North America – 9 a.m. ET for the prelims and noon ET for the main card.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie's event hub for UFC Fight Night 250.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov prediction, pick: Can ex-champ get back on track at UFC Saudi Arabia?