Advertisement

Is the 2016-17 NHL playoff picture already set?

Greg Wyshynski
NHL
NHL

There are few givens in a sport played on ice by guys on knife edges chasing a bouncing rubber thing, but know this: The teams that are in playoff positions at Thanksgiving (the awesome American one) are likely to still be there when the Stanley Cup Playoffs start.

If you haven’t heard, since the NHL hit 30 teams in 2000, 78 percent of the teams in playoff positions on Turkey Day ultimately make the postseason. It’s a stat that’s thrived through two lockouts, realignment and a major change to the playoff format in 2014.

And it’s a stat that obviously should be as delicious as [insert whatever your personal preference for a delicious Thanksgiving dish] for Ottawa Senators, New Jersey Devils, Columbus Blue Jackets, Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks fans, whose teams are succeeding beyond preseason expectations.

In the Western Conference last season, the only team to flip-flop were the Arizona Coyotes, who were in the No. 3 spot last season in the Pacific. But that was before the Anaheim Ducks’ (21 points) huge rally to win the division.

Here’s a graphic look at the East from Sportsnet:

Sportsnet
Sportsnet

Now, as you can see, the current “divisional” playoff alignment appears to open the door for teams outside the money to get into it. At least in theory. Last season’s unpredictability could also be chalked up to Montreal losing Carey Price, Philadelphia getting its crap together with a new coach, a hangover for the Lightning and, in Boston, … well, obviously it was all Loui Eriksson’s fault.

So in theory, we’ll see teams enter and leave the playoff picture based on variables foreseen (regression to the mean) and unforeseen (injury).

What are the factors that could break the trend this season? Here are a few of them:

Someone Figures Out Their Goaltending

The Philadelphia Flyers (21 points) are in the hunt despite the worst team save percentage in the NHL (.880) this season. Second-worst? The Dallas Stars (21 points) at .890. Third-worst, despite the heroics of Chad Johnson, are the Calgary Flames (19 points, .891).

Are you pickin’ up what we’re putting’ down here? One hot goalie (or the team that pries Ben Bishop out of Tampa Bay), and they could be knocking on the bubble door.

The Bruins And Panthers Are Better Than Ottawa

I mean, c’mon. Much respect to the Senators for their start under Guy Boucher, but it’s hard to imagine a Boston Bruins team that finally gets its offensive house in order and a Florida Panthers team that doesn’t have several of its top players set to IR on your fantasy team aren’t going to climb over the Senators like World War Z zombies storming the walls of Jerusalem.

I’d actually give the Blue Jackets better odds of making the playoffs in the East, and their power play percentage is inflated like the Pillsbury Doughboy balloon.

Speaking of which …

Regress Or Impress

The Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild both have PDOs at 102, and are both currently in playoff seeds. Most of that can be attributed to their stellar goaltending, although in Columbus’s case you can also factor in a power play that’s still clicking at 28.6 percent.

The Wild are a concern, because the Nashville Predators are just getting started, the Stars are some competent goaltending away from a playoff spot and the Winnipeg Jets are figuring it out. That said: Bruce Boudreau pixie dust.

The Jackets are a concern because … well, for these reasons.

What About Your Devils, Devils Boy?

C’mon you know we’re headed for a Taylor Hall vs. Connor McDavid Stanley Cup Final, why is this even a question?

(The real answer: They’re better than anticipated, still overly reliant on Cory Schneider but there’s something telling me they’re going to be sniffing around the playoff bubble for a while this season. “Something” in this case being blind optimism that this stubborn refusal to tank will result at least something tangible.)

(Oh, and Edmonton is a playoff team, we might as well just accept this.)

—

Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at puckdaddyblog@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.

MORE FROM YAHOO SPORTS