Hyun Jin Ryu's return doesn't look like a boon to Blue Jays' rotation situation

There's not much Hyun Jin Ryu could've done on Tuesday night to make it clear that he was ready to make a significant contribution to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2023.

One start isn't enough to definitively say what a pitcher has to offer, but it can give some indication into which way the winds are blowing. Ryu's outing against the Baltimore Orioles looked an awful lot like his six starts in 2022 prior to his Tommy John surgery — work that resulted in a 5.67 ERA with a 5.21 xERA to match.

His average fastball velocity sat at 89.0 — a notch below his 2022 number (89.3 mph) — and hard contact against him was the norm as the Orioles' average exit velocity sat at 92.0 mph with a xwOBA of .422. Strikeouts were also hard to come by as his K rate (13.0%) closely mirrored his 2022 average (14.2%).

Any single-start statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's clear that Ryu was throwing more or less the same stuff that got him in trouble when we saw him last, and the results that followed matched his most recent results.

It is possible that Ryu is able to get his velocity up — something he hinted at after the game — but that's far from a guarantee for a 36-year-old. His command could also improve as well as he gets back into the groove. He might just be an asset to the team during the stretch run.

On the other hand, Tuesday's uninspiring start supported the idea that he won't be, which was the most likely scenario all along. After all, Ryu hadn't been an effective starter for some time before his surgery, and it seemed unfair to expect he would immediately turn things around after.

The wheels began to fall off for the big southpaw late in the 2021 season. In the last two calendar years, Ryu has produced an ERA of 6.46 in 18 starts. Just five of his outings in that span went six innings or more — and only two of those came since September 2021. There have been 402 pitchers who've topped 80 innings since August 2, 2021, and just five of them have a worse ERA than Ryu.

While it's possible that he can rediscover his form from 2020 and early 2021, it's far from likely. Tuesday's outing did nothing to suggest that an improbable bounce-back is on the way.

That leaves the Blue Jays in a difficult situation.

A pitcher of Ryu's stature deserves a little bit of rope to find his way, but Toronto is also in a delicate competitive position. The team came into Wednesday just 1.5 games ahead of the Boston Red Sox for the final playoff spot in the American League.

Going to a six-man rotation to accommodate Ryu's return has tangible drawbacks.

Not only is the veteran difficult to project or rely on, his presence takes opportunities away from more trustworthy pitchers. Under the current rotation structure, each starter projects to get nine starts during the rest of the regular season. If Ryu wasn't around, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Alek Manoah and Yusei Kikuchi would all get two more turns and Chris Bassitt would get one — based on the current order.

To be clear, the Blue Jays aren't going to give Ryu nine starts if he isn't performing well, and there's no guarantee everyone stays healthy. The current situation isn't guaranteed to cost the team five outings from their top trio of Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt.

However, welcoming Ryu back into the fold may cost them one or two as they figure out what they have in him. If he can't contribute down the stretch, that will be time wasted and a reasonably significant opportunity cost incurred.

Getting out of that situation will be a pain, too, as Ryu can't be optioned and lacks bullpen utility. The only thing the Blue Jays can do is release him outright, which would be an unfortunate thing to do to a player who's worked hard to come back and was hoping to show he could still perform prior to free agency.

For now, Ryu can serve as injury insurance, and it's possible that he will take Manoah's spot if the big righty goes off the rails again and needs to finish 2023 in the minors.

That has some value, but his presence — both in terms of his on-field production and the starts he takes from more reliable starters — could easily hurt more than it helps.