Huge If True: Where will Kris Russell end up?

[Breaking down the plausibility of the week’s biggest rumor.]

A little while ago, people kind of looked around and realized, “Oh hey, no one signed Kris Russell yet.”

Well heck, you could have guessed that there was a reason for this: Russell isn’t that good. But also, according to Darren Dreger, teams were interested but needed to free up some money at some point before training camps open. Of course, that was in early August, and the final full month of summer came and went.

Exactly a month later, Dreger again reported that Russell was in talks with as many as eight teams and would sign before camps opened.

Well folks: Training camps open in a week, and Kris Russell ain’t signed nowhere yet.

So hey, eight teams, right? Who are they? Why do they want Kris Russell?

The Rumor
Well, that second question is borderline impossible to answer unless they see him as a bottom-pairing guy. He might be pretty good at that, especially if you use him in defense-only situations. Last season Bob Hartley used him more than he did Dougie Hamilton, so that seems to have inflated the player’s sense of self. Let’s not forget, it wasn’t so long ago some insiders were saying you might see a contract in the neighborhood of $36 million over six years. Which obviously would have been insane.

Bob McKenzie says that decision should come down in the next few days.

But as for who they are, we have some ideas. Think for a second about Russell’s profile as a player. Primary asset: Getting hemmed into his own zone, uh I mean blocking shots and hitting people.

So you’ll never guess who’s considered a front-runner right now!

Who’s Going Where?

A lot of the noise this week has been that the Oilers are front of the line, potentially willing to give Russell decent money — potentially as much as $5 million, according to McKenzie — on a short-term deal. On the other hand, Bob Stauffer says he’d be “very surprised” if he went to Edmonton.

Another potential suitor is one that was brought up earlier this summer: The Boston Bruins, who are on the lookout for a free agent defenseman, and reportedly almost traded for Russell last season at the deadline as well.

Again, look at how Russell fits into what those teams value. The Oilers want to get meaner and improve on the blue line. Russell theoretically fits that profile (not that he makes anyone better, but teams that value the wrong things will think so). This is also true of the Bruins, mainly because they’re just flat-out desperate for any D help at all, as well they should be.

McKenzie also said that Calgary might be interested in bringing Russell back — he is, after all, a known quantity. But the implication there is that they would use him in their top four. Wouldn’t they be better off re-signing Jakub Nakladal?

Jim Matheson, based in Edmonton, also said that perhaps Vancouver might be interested in Russell’s services, which certainly fits in with how that front office seems to think about value in the game.

Finally, on NHL.com, Dan Rosen said he wouldn’t be surprised to see the Devils try to sign Russell. They, too, need NHLers on the blue line. However, this is a relatively new entry to the chase for Russell, so honestly, who knows?

So that’s five of a potential eight teams that might be interested in Russell. Not quite sure who the other ones would be? Maybe Dallas since they traded for him last year, or would they be too disenchanted from his postseason performance? Tough to say who else might be interested. Does anyone still want to get to the cap floor?

The Implications

The thing is that for all the deserved badmouthing Russell’s game gets, it’s not like he isn’t an NHL-quality player. He’s just not an NHL top-four-quality player. There’s a notable difference.

If the cost for Kris Russell is one year at, say, $2 million — which you’d expect for someone who had to wait until late September to get a deal from someone — then that has a chance to be a worthwhile investment. But if you’re giving him any more than that in term or, god forbid, money, you might end up with a serious case of buyer’s remorse.

The good news for these teams is that if they truly believed he was a good top-four defenseman they probably would have signed him already, rather than waiting for training camps to start. He’s a left-shot defenseman and teams usually have a lot of them on hand to begin with, so what he provides might not necessarily be something they’re willing to pay through the nose for. As well they shouldn’t.

The bad news is that McKenzie said he might still command as much as $5 million, even after all this time. If the hesitance was the term and not the dollar amount, that’s understandable given Russell’s age (29) and the number of miles he’s got on the chassis.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

If we’re talking about odds Russell signs with an NHL team? That’s a tap-in. It’s going to happen. Too many GMs still think he’s good — Dallas gave up a roster player, a prospect, and a pick that was a game from becoming a first-rounder just to get him for two months — to keep him out.

But right now nailing down where he might or might not land is basically impossible. If there’s a bidding war, it probably goes to whoever gives him the most regrettable deal.

Kris Russell getting a contract fans of his new team should dislike:

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

MORE FROM YAHOO SPORTS