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How the women's basketball player-of-the-year race is stacking up

cassandra negley
Women's basketball reporter
·6 min read
HARTFORD, CONNECTICUT - DECEMBER 21: Paige Bueckers #5 of the Connecticut Huskies is defended by JuJu Watkins #12 of the USC Trojans during the first half of an NCAA women's basketball game at the XL Center on December 21, 2024 in Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images)
Where do Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins stand in the player-of-the-year race? (Photo by Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images)

The national player-of-the-year race is heating up as teams transition to conference play and voting panels whittle down their watchlists from 50 to 25 players this month. There will be no repeat winner as two-timer Caitlin Clark is in the WNBA. Two of the four 2024 finalists are still in school and are top contenders to be named again in April.

Here are the four players in the lead for player of the year and a handful who could play their way into contention.

The 5-foot-6 sophomore guard ascended to the top with a dangerous two-way game that has Notre Dame in contention to win its first national championship in the Niele Ivey era. Hidalgo ranks second in scoring and steals through 14 games. She was one of three Fighting Irish players shooting at least 50% (as of Tuesday, she dipped to 49.4%) and is one of the game’s best 3-point shooters (2.6 made per game at 45.7%).

It’s her performance against the nation’s best that placed her atop the rest. Hidalgo averaged 26.8 points (45 FG%, 46 3FG%), 7.2 rebounds, six assists and 3.4 steals in five games against ranked opponents while playing nearly every minute. She dropped 30 points on Texas and nearly had a triple double against UConn, falling two assists shy.

There’s a case to be made for backcourt mate Olivia Miles. The redshirt junior is the only player in the nation averaging 16/6/7 with 16.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game. She ranks fourth in assists and added 3-point shooting to her game, taking and making it at double the rate (47.8% ranks in the 98th percentile) than last season while maintaining all-around efficiency (66.3% ranks fifth among guards averaging at least 20 minutes per game).

Bueckers is the most efficient of the projected finalist group, boosting her above Watkins for now. She isn’t a volume shooter, but rather takes smart shot attempts for a career-high 62.8 effective field-goal percentage. It’s one of the best amongst Division I guards. And the 6-foot redshirt senior rarely turns the ball over, averaging 1.3 per game. At 1.7 turnovers per 40 minutes, she ranks in the 91st percentile.

Health remains the concern. Bueckers is expected to miss one week with a knee sprain to the same leg she injured twice before. She’s 18 points from reaching 2,000 in her career and is on track to do so faster than any player in UConn history.

In 2021, Bueckers became the only freshman to win any of the major national player of the year awards (AP, Wooden, Naismith, USBWA). Eight players are multi-time Naismith winners since the award was introduced on the women’s side in 1983. Only Maya Moore has won multiple awards in non-consecutive years. Seven players are two-time Wooden Award winners, dating to its inception in 2004, all in consecutive seasons.

Watkins is an elite playmaker and ballhandler who continues to dominate after a record-setting freshman campaign. Her 25.1 points per game are third in DI, which is a bucket lower than her freshman average. But with more weapons on the USC roster, her solo shot-making isn’t as necessary and she’s dishing more assists (4.1 up from 3.3). The 6-2 shooting guard uses her size and length to rank in the 98th percentile or better in steals and blocks.

Opponents are learning how to scheme for Watkins in her second season. Though her 51.1 effective field-goal percentage and 2.9 turnovers per game are markedly improved, they still lag behind Bueckers’ numbers. Watkins will have more opportunities to boost her numbers and performance. She’s scored at least 30 points three times, led by a 40-point, 12-of-18 showing versus California Baptist.

Betts is the fulcrum of the Bruins offense, and her improved production down the stat sheet is a key reason they’re ranked No. 1. The 6-7 junior center is averaging a career-high 19.8 points (27th in DI) on an effective 61.5 field-goal percentage (11th among centers). She’s averaging a double-double and is a dominant rim protector.

Betts, who missed two games with a leg injury, is an improved passer out of double- and triple-teams, more than doubling her assist rate. There aren’t many posts who can match up well with Betts’ size, and UCLA’s non-conference schedule was light. In the upset victory over South Carolina, she scored a season-low 11 points on a season-low eight field-goal attempts, but had 14 rebounds, four assists and four blocks. Her production against Michigan (13 points, six field-goal attempts) was also underwhelming, though she found other ways to contribute (10 rebounds, five assists and four blocks).

There will be more opportunities to boost her stock, starting with Maryland on Jan. 26, and six of UCLA’s final 10 games are against ranked teams.

Florida State guard Ta’Niya Latson is the national leader in scoring (27.9 ppg), taking the Seminoles back to the fringe of ranked status. She’s scored at least 38 points three times and is shooting a career-best 51.1% overall and 45.5% from 3-point range. The Seminoles will play their first ranked opponent on Sunday at Cal. (They lost at Tennessee on Dec. 4, before the Vols were ranked.)

Aneesah Morrow is the steadying force for LSU, averaging a double-double and leading the nation in rebounding (18.1 ppg, 14 rpg). She’s also having a career shooting year in their non-conference schedule. Kansas State center Ayoka Lee, who leads the nation in player efficiency rating, and Oklahoma center Raegan Beers are two of the most efficient posts in DI, but neither has set themselves apart. Kaylene Smikle, Maryland’s MVP from a transformative offseason, and Madison Booker, Texas’ All-American sophomore, don’t stack the stat sheet enough to break into the top four currently.

South Carolina is riding the 10-player balanced attack again this year with no clear POY contender. Chloe Kitts began the year under consideration, but is one of four forwards averaging between 18 and 20 minutes. She’ll likely see more time with Ashlyn Watkins (ACL) out for the year. Te-Hina Paopao leads the Gamecocks, averaging 11.6 ppg and shooting 42.6% from 3.