Home dominance but questionable form: All the key stats ahead of Milan-Parma

AC Milan will take on Parma this Sunday, with kick-off set for 12:30, and it’s a fixture that the Rossoneri historically have enjoyed. However, while the stats and facts are positive overall, the reverse fixture ended in a defeat. 

Sergio Conceicao and his men need to claim all three points from tomorrow’s game, following the defeat to Juventus last weekend, and they are the big favourites as well. Indeed, they have lost just one of their last 20 home games against Parma in the league.

Despite the reverse fixture ending in a 2-1 defeat, therefore, it’s clear that Milan have the upper hand and Parma’s position in the standings also suggests that. On the other hand, the Gialloblu have collected as many points as the Rossoneri lately.

Key facts and stats

➤ Only Roma (34) have won more Serie A games against Parma than Milan (29), with 14 draws and 12 Gialloblù wins in their 55 previous meetings. However, following their 2-1 win in August, the Ducali could enjoy two league victories in a row against the Rossoneri for the first time since the 2013/14 campaign (3-2 and 4-2 wins under Roberto Donadoni).

➤ Milan have lost just one of their last 20 home matches against Parma in Serie A, recording 15 wins and four draws in the process. Overall, among sides they have faced at least 20 times at home in the three points for a win era, only against Cagliari (79%) do the Rossoneri boast a higher win rate at home than the Ducali (70% – 16/23).

➤ This season Milan have won fewer than 35 points from their opening 20 Serie A games (31) for the first time since the 2019/20 campaign (28), when they finished the season in sixth place; the last time the Rossoneri ended the campaign in one of the top four positions after having won 31 points or fewer at this stage of the season was back in 2012/13 (3rd).

➤ After their defeat against Juventus last time out, Milan could lose two matches in a row in Serie A for the first time since doing so between January and February 2023 (three in that case, against Lazio, Sassuolo and Inter).

➤ Milan have drawn four of their last five home games in Serie A (W1), including each of their last three – in the three points for a win era, only once have the Rossoneri recorded four consecutive home draws in the top-flight (between October 1994 and January 1995 – a run that included a match against Parma).

➤ After a run of three consecutive defeats, Parma have since lost only one of their last four Serie A games (W1 D2), earning the same points tally as Milan in that period (5), but while recording a better goal difference than the Rossoneri (0 for the Ducali, -1 for the Diavolo).

➤ Milan (50) and Parma (42) are the two sides that have recorded the most direct attacks in Serie A this season (open play sequences that starts just inside the team’s own half and has at least 50% of movement towards the opposition’s goal and ends in a shot or a touch in the opposition box) and are also the two teams that have recorded the most shots following a fast break in the Italian top-flight this season (27 for the Gialloblù, 26 for the Rossoneri).

➤ Only Inter (7) have more players with at least three goals scored in Serie A this season than Milan and Parma (both 5 – level with Atalanta and Napoli).

➤ Only against Venezia (4) has Theo Hernández scored more Serie A goals than Parma (3 – same as against Torino). With an assist, the Milan player could become the first defender to both score three or more goals and assist three or more goals in each of the last six seasons in the big five European leagues (PSG’s Achraf Hakimi is currently on two goals and five assists this season).

➤ Dennis Man is the Parma player that has been involved in the most Serie A goals this season (7 – four goals and three assists) and, overall, he is both the top scorer (28) and top assister (13) for the Ducali in all competitions since he joined the club in January 2021. After his goal in the reverse fixture earlier this season, the Rossoneri could become the first side against which Man manages to find the net in both seasonal matches in the Italian top-flight.