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Heisman Watch: Which of these longshots can work their way into Heisman conversation in November?

nick bromberg
Senior writer
·4 min read

With five weeks to go in the season, oddsmakers have made it clear who the four players with the best chances at the Heisman Trophy are.

Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel has taken over as the Heisman favorite at BetMGM. Gabriel’s odds of +240 are just ahead of Colorado WR/DB Travis Hunter at +250. On Monday, Hunter became the first player to win Big 12 offensive player of the week and defensive player of the week in the same week after his performance in the Buffaloes’ win over Cincinnati.

Miami QB Cam Ward is at +300, while Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is fourth at +450. Jeanty had emerged as the midseason Heisman favorite given his absurd statistics, but his odds have gotten longer behind players in power conferences.

There’s a big gap to everyone else. Behind Jeanty, the next-smallest odds are +2500. There’s a very good chance this year’s Heisman winner will be one of those four players. But with so many top teams off in Week 10 ahead of the stretch run, we figured this was a good time to take a look at five quarterbacks who have a chance to sneak into the Heisman race. Here are five players to watch on Saturday as a lot of teams will be enjoying their second off weekend of the season.

We’re pretty bullish on Klubnik’s chances to get an invite to New York City if he continues to lead Clemson’s offense like this. The Tigers are the No. 4 scoring team in college football at 42 points per game and are averaging 48.5 points per game against all teams not named Georgia. Klubnik is completing two-thirds of his passes so far this season with 20 TDs and just three interceptions. He’s also rushed for four scores. Klubnik is averaging over two yards more per passing attempt in 2024 than he did in 2023 and his odds could drop significantly over the next three weeks with strong performances against Louisville, Virginia Tech and Pitt.

Beck’s odds are probably so low because of his name recognition at this point. His stats are down nearly across the board from where they were in 2023 and he’s already thrown two more interceptions than he did all of last season. You can’t discount his chances of sneaking back into the mix, however. A big game against Florida would happen on an otherwise light college football slate and Georgia’s next two games are against No. 19 Ole Miss and No. 7 Tennessee. If Beck is the best player on the field in those two contests, his odds will drop.

Here are the longshots who could play themselves into the Heisman race. (Josephy Raines/Yahoo Sports)
Here are the longshots who could play themselves into the Heisman race. (Josephy Raines/Yahoo Sports)

If Allar is unable to play on Saturday against No. 4 Ohio State, his chances of winning the Heisman are zero. He could be a game-time decision after suffering a knee injury in the first half of Penn State’s win against Wisconsin in Week 9. Beau Pribula will start in Allar's place if he can’t play; Pribula was 11-of-13 passing for 98 yards and a TD against the Badgers.

Allar has been much better in 2024 than he was a season ago and a great game against Ohio State would be a statement. A season ago, Allar was 18-of-42 passing for 191 yards and was sacked four times in PSU’s 20-12 loss to the Buckeyes.

Rourke could return to the field on Saturday against Michigan State after missing Indiana’s win over Washington. Rourke lost the thumbnail on his right throwing hand in the team’s blowout win over Nebraska. That sounds like an especially painful injury.

Rourke has completed over 74% of his passes in 2024 and has thrown for nearly 11 yards per attempt. He’s a big reason why Indiana is off to an 8-0 start this season and his Heisman stock could jump considerably if the Hoosiers can beat Michigan and take down Ohio State in November.

Iamaleava has gone from an early season favorite to a player with an outside shot at the trophy thanks to the Tennessee offense’s struggles against SEC opponents. Iamaleava hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a game since UT’s Week 2 win over NC State and he hasn’t completed more than 63% of his passes in a single game since then either.

But similar to Beck, he’s got the opportunity to garner some Heisman votes if Tennessee can get its offense back on track and the Vols make it to the SEC title game. Tennessee’s remaining SEC opponents outside of the Bulldogs are Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Those are three very winnable games.