Is Heat simply stuck? Six reasons Miami needs luck or a change in approach to improve

Perhaps some whale will suddenly and magically emerge from the ocean depths and save the Heat from subjecting us all to a sixth season of this offensively feeble, fragile roster that lost its final 12 home games against healthy teams with elite talent, most of those defeats coming by double digits.

Perhaps the Heat will be lucky enough for an All-Star to ask to be traded to Miami and perhaps that team will acquiesce and won’t insist on the treasure trove of draft picks that the Heat doesn’t have the ability to offer.

At this point, that’s what it’s going to take for the Heat to make badly needed changes:

Luck

You don’t need luck if you have oodles of cap space, like the 76ers and Magic have.

You don’t need luck if you have access to a full mid-level exception, like the majority of the league has.

You don’t need luck if you possess a handful of first-round draft picks to offer for an All Star.

But the Heat has none of those.

Instead, the Heat seems stuck, lacking the draft assets to compete for available All-Stars and lacking the maneuverability to do much of anything under the NBA’s new labor deal that is especially punitive for teams with payrolls well above the luxury tax line, where Miami currently stands.

But the Heat also is making its challenge more difficult by seemingly removing one viable option from the table: rebuilding.

“Our organization is not about rebuilding,” Heat president Pat Riley said in May. “We will retool to try to make it better.”

The Athletic’s Shams Charania and ESPN’s Brian Windhorst have reported that the Heat isn’t going to trade Jimmy Butler.

Unless that changes, Miami is committed to trying to be a playoff contender next season, even if it’s unable to add the key player or players that are assuredly needed to compete with Boston, New York, Philadelphia and perhaps Indiana and Milwaukee. After Philadelphia added Paul George and Orlando signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Heat likely stands no better than seventh in the East, perhaps eighth.

If it could, the sense here is that the Heat would be willing to part with young assets to acquire an available All-Star. But there’s no obvious target, unless Donovan Mitchell surprises everybody and asks out of Cleveland. The Heat must hope that Bam Adebayo or somebody is in Mitchell’s ear imploring him to ask to be traded to Miami.

What about Atlanta guard Trae Young? That’s not realistic, considering the Heat has only one available first-round pick to offer and considering that the Hawks have no incentive to tank because the Spurs own their unprotected first-round picks in 2025 and 2027 and can swap picks with the Hawks in 2026.

New Orleans forward Brandon Ingram? Put it this way: Does it make sense to trade assets — and then offer a max contract — to a player who has appeared in just 61, 55, 45 and 64 games the past four seasons, a player who was benched for ineffectiveness in the Pelicans’ season-ending loss?

Chicago guard Zach LaVine? Can you justify trading two among Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Terry Rozier for an overpaid, often-injured guard who has a 15 percent trade kicker that would raise his bloated salaries of $43 million, $46 million and $49 million the next three seasons?

“There is no market for Zach LaVine,” ESPN’s Bobby Marks said this week. “They are trying to give him away and attach a first-round pick. I’ve been told that by multiple, multiple people.”

Utah forward Lauri Markkanen? Windhorst says rival executives believe the Jazz will trade him. But if Utah could cajole Minnesota to give up five first-round picks for Rudy Gobert, why would the Jazz settle for the Heat’s measly one available first-rounder?

The sad truth is that last summer offered far more realistic opportunities to improve — by either seizing on distressed assets (such as Kristaps Porzingis or Bradley Beal) or working discreetly with agent Aaron Goodwin to formulate a scorched Earth strategy where Damian Lillard probably could have forced his way to Miami, despite Portland’s lack of interest in Miami’s assets.

Making the Finals can never be framed as a bad thing, but the long-term effects of the Heat’s 2023 Finals appearance were somewhat damaging because Miami’s win in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals motivated the Celtics to add Porzingis and Jrue Holiday and left the Heat lacking the desperation to improve.

So why is the Heat seemingly suddenly stuck, unless a surprise trade (or Mitchell) gloriously falls out of the sky? Six reasons:

▪ New cap/tax rules: Because the Heat is above the first apron ($178 million), Miami cannot take back more salary than it sends out in a trade. That makes it very difficult, if not impossible, for two teams that are above the first apron to make a trade with each other.

Miami also is about $7 million from the second apron; if the Heat surpasses that, it cannot aggregate players in a trade and loses the ability to trade its first-round pick in 2032 (which no team can do until late June next year).

▪ Lack of appealing trade options: See above.

▪ The Heat is very selective about who it pursues:

Miami has made either no effort or little effort to acquire several players who might have helped in recent years because of off-court baggage, questions about their coachability or their contracts.

The Heat decided not to try to acquire Beal last summer because of his no-trade clause, according to the Heat.

The Heat was hesitant to aggressively pursue Irving when Brooklyn made him available, and a person directly involved with Kyle Lowry said the Heat assured Lowry — two years ago — that he would not be traded for Irving.

Riley has emphasized that ownership wants to win but “I’m not going to bring them something that’s going to make us a little bit better and cost us a lot more” in terms of tax and assets, as opposed to something that makes them much better.

Riley said there’s two or three players in the league who would get the Heat to “go for it, shoot the moon.”

Being that selective requires patience. And for the fan base, that patience is being tested.

▪ Lack of draft capital to offer:

With few exceptions, teams need to offer a handful of first-round picks to acquire All-Stars or fringe All-Stars. It required five first-round picks for the Knicks to acquire Mikal Bridges, who has never been an All-Star, and for Minnesota to acquire Gobert.

Two first-round picks were necessary for the Pelicans to acquire Dejounte Murray from the Hawks, a trade that cannot be finalized for another week.

By trading a protected 2027 first-round pick to Charlotte for Rozier, the Heat left itself able to offer only one future first-round pick — which likely won’t be nearly enough to acquire an All-Star.

If the Heat and Thunder agreed to lift the 2025 protections on the first-round pick due OKC — and if the Heat and Hornets did the same — then Miami could offer first-round picks in 2029 and 2031. But that would be risky for the Heat because Miami would lose lottery picks if it misses the playoffs next season and in 2026-27.

As it stands, Miami can offer only one first-rounder, in 2030 or 2031. Teams can only trade first-round picks that are seven years out, and teams cannot trade first-round picks in consecutive years.

▪ The Heat’s philosophical opposition to taking a step back for a season or two, with the hope of a brighter future:

Barring a dramatic organizational change of heart, that eliminates the Heat’s chances of parlaying Butler into a bevy of future picks and a young player, via the trade market.

▪ The reluctance, at least yet, to make a lateral move:

Though this roster has grown stale, there’s no indication that the Heat is willing to trade a player simply for change’s sake. Perhaps that changes in the weeks ahead.

But an NBA official who has spoken to the Heat said Miami continues to say that while it wants to improve the team, it believes it has a roster good enough to contend if healthy. That’s seemingly impossible to prove or disprove, because they’re rarely fully healthy.

What we do know is this: During the past two seasons, the players that Erik Spoelstra has called the Heat’s “Big 3” – Butler, Adebayo and Herro — has played 79 games, nearly a full season together, including playoffs.

The Heat is 40-39 in those games. That, as much as anything, would make the case for making lateral moves, late this summer, if the Heat discovers no realistic way to augment its roster.