Heat and Pacers set for Sunday showdown in Indianapolis. A look at what’s at stake

Must-win games are usually reserved for the playoffs. But if the Miami Heat is going to avoid the NBA’s play-in tournament this season, Sunday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge FieldHouse is as close to a must-win as it gets.

With the top six seeds in each conference automatically qualifying for the playoffs, the Heat and Pacers are both pursuing the coveted No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference with just one week left in the regular season. The alternative is needing to qualify for the playoffs through the NBA’s play-in tournament, as the seventh through 10th-place teams take part in those extra games to determine the final two playoff seeds in each conference.

Entering Sunday’s game in Indianapolis (5 p.m., Bally Sports Sun), the Heat (43-34) sits in seventh place and the Pacers (44-34) are in sixth place. While both teams are even in the loss column, the Pacers are a half-game ahead of the Heat because they have one more win due to playing one more game than Miami up to this point.

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“I feel like we’ll be ready, I feel like we’ll be prepared,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said, with the Heat guaranteed to finish no worse than No. 8 in the East following Friday night’s 119-104 road win over the Houston Rockets to begin a pivotal three-game trip. “All we got to do is go out there and play the game the right way.”

So, what’s at stake on Sunday?

▪ The advantage of ending the day as the East’s sixth-place team. After Sunday, the Heat will have just four games left to play and the Pacers will have only three games left to play this regular season.

▪ The head-to-head tiebreaker in the three-game regular-season series between the Heat and Pacers that is currently tied 1-1.

▪ The top spot in a potential three-way tiebreaker between the Heat, Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers, which would likely come down to aggregate head-to-head record between the three teams. The 76ers are in eighth place in the East and entered Saturday just one game behind the Heat and Pacers in the loss column.

“I love what this game means to [the Pacers], I love what this game means for us,” Heat forward Jimmy Butler said. “I love that they play so incredibly well at home and we have to go in there and play damn near perfect basketball. We got to play our style of basketball, we got to play the right way in order to sneak one and get one on the road.”

The bottom line is the Heat can stay in control of its own destiny with a win on Sunday. If the Heat wins the final five games on its regular-season schedule — at Pacers on Sunday, at Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday, vs. Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, vs. Toronto Raptors on Friday and vs. Raptors on April 14 — it will finish no worse than No. 6 in the East and avoid the play-in tournament.

Finishing even higher than sixth in the East standings is also possible in this win-out scenario. The Heat is just two games behind the third-place Cleveland Cavaliers (46-32), fourth-place Orlando Magic (45-32) and fifth-place New York Knicks (45-32) in the loss column.

But a loss on Sunday would leave the Heat relying on others to help determine its postseason seeding. A loss to the Pacers would be so damaging that it would leave the Heat likely needing the Pacers to drop two of their final three regular-season games just to have a chance to pass them in the standings to crack the top six in the East.

“As we’ve said all year long, we’re always in control of our own destiny,” Butler said. “It’s now that case more than ever.”

While the No. 6 seed would be locked into a best-of-7 first-round playoff series against the East’s No. 3 seed currently occupied by the Cleveland Cavaliers, the East teams in the play-in tourney will be competing for the right to face either the No. 1 (the Boston Celtics) or No. 2 seed (currently the Milwaukee Bucks) in the conference.

“For competitors only,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said. “That’s what we preach and that’s what we want as NBA players to play in games like this. Games that mean something and ultimately games that can determine if we’re in the playoffs or be in the play-in. It’s a big difference.”

The Heat became the first team ever to advance to the NBA Finals through the play-in tournament last season. The Heat would prefer not to be faced with the daunting challenge of pulling off that once unprecedented feat for the second straight season.

“There’s incredible lows, highs, a bunch of emotions in between and you just have to stay the course,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We have five games left in this regular season. Obviously, we have a big one in Indiana.”

INJURY REPORT

The Heat remains without Josh Richardson, who is out for the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Two-way contract forward Cole Swider is listed as questionable because of travel issues, as he’s working to join the Heat in Indianapolis after spending time with the G League’s Sioux Falls Skyforce.

But the rest of the Heat’s roster is expected to be available for Sunday’s showdown against the Pacers.

The Pacers listed All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton (back soreness) as questionable for Sunday’s matchup against the Heat.

In addition, the Pacers listed Quenton Jackson (G League), Jalen Smith (sprained left ankle), Oscar Tshiebwe (G League) and Isaiah Wong (G League) as questionable. Bennedict Mathurin (right shoulder labral tear) remains out.