How Heat’s Herro stacks up with other standout East guards in bid for All Star invitation

Tyler Herro has played like an All-Star this season.

Whether that’s enough to earn the Heat guard his first career invitation to the event is far less certain.

“I would love to be an All-Star,” Herro said late Thursday night. “I feel like I’m an All-Star but it’s up to the coaches.”

Herro’s chances seemingly received a slight boost on Thursday when New York’s Jalen Brunson (and not Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball) was named an Eastern Conference starter alongside Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell.

The thinking is that Herro has a better chance in a competition with Ball, who has been limited to 30 games while playing for a bad team, than he would against Brunson. The problem is that Cade Cunningham and Darius Garland seemingly stand in Herro’s way.

Herro is essentially competing with at least eight other accomplished guards for somewhere between two and four roster spots.

The NBA’s 30 head coaches select the seven All-Star reserves in each conference and are required to choose two more backcourt players, three more frontcourt players and then two other players at any position. That means the East roster will have a minimum of four guards and a maximum of six, with Brunson and Mitchell already having secured two of those guard spots.

Reserves will be announced during a TNT pre-game show next Thursday.

Herro entered Saturday night’s game at Brooklyn averaging career highs in points (24.0), rebounds (5.6), assists (5.1), shooting percentage (47.4) and three-point shooting (40.4).

Here’s how Herro stacks up with the remaining competition:

▪ Detroit’s Cunningham: The former No. 1 overall pick stands at the epicenter of the Pistons’ jump from 14-68 doormats a year ago to sixth in the East at 23-21. And there’s a strong chance that NBA coaches will reward Cunningham for that, factoring in his his impressive numbers.

Cunningham is averaging more points (24.6) and assists (9.4) and rebounds (6.5) than Herro but is shooting less accurately -- 45.7 percent overall and 37.1 percent on threes.

▪ Cleveland’s Garland: Part of the equation with Garland is whether the coaches feel compelled to give Cleveland a second All Star (Garland or forward Evan Mobley) or even a third All Star because of their 36-8 record.

Garland certainly has done his part, averaging 21.3 points, 6.7 assists, 2.5 rebounds, while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 42.8 percent on threes. While Herro averages more points, Garland is the only All Star caliber guard in the conference with higher overall and three-point shooting percentages than Herro.

Also, Garland has the second-highest shooting percentage among all NBA guards during clutch time, defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of a game with a margin of five points or fewer. Garland is shooting 20 for 32 (62.5 percent) in the clutch. As perspective, Herro stands at 28.8 percent (15 for 52), though he has made several enormous late shots.

▪ Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard: The Bucks’ recent surge – winning 23 of 32 after a 2-8 start - combined with Lillard’s high volume scoring (25.1) and assists (7.2) could give him the edge over Herro.

But Herro has been the more efficient player, with advantages in shooting percentage (47.4 to 44.9) and three-point percentage (40.4 to 39.0) and turnovers (2.3 per game to Lillard’s 2.8).

▪ Atlanta’s Trae Young: If Cunningham and Garland are named reserves by coaches, then this becomes a question of whether Young, Lillard, Herro or any of the other guards below get the nod over two additional frontcourt players.

Herro has the edge in every significant statistical category against Young except assists; Young is averaging a league-leading 11.7.

In a measurement against Young, Herro is averaging slightly more points (24.0 to 22.9) and rebounds (5.4 to 3.3) and has shot significantly better overall (47.4 to 40.1) and on threes (40.4 to 34.6).

▪ Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey: Much as Cleveland’s record could help Garland, Philadelphia’s record (16-27) could work against Maxey, who’s averaging 26.5 points, 5.9 assists and 3.5 rebounds. Also working against Maxey are underwhelming shooting percentages: 42.9 percent overall and 33.7 percent on threes.

▪ Charlotte’s Ball: His 29 point per game average is higher than any guard in the East. But his efficiency hasn’t been very good: He’s shooting 41.9 percent from the field and 33.5 percent on threes. It’s difficult to see coaches picking a player off an 11-30 team, considering Ball has missed 11 games.

▪ Boston’s Derrick White: Perhaps the longest shot on his list, with averages of 15.8 points, 4.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds. It’s dubious whether coaches give Boston a third All Star after Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (who is listed as a front-court player). But White leads all NBA guards in clutch shooting percentage, at 11 for 17 (64.7).

▪ Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton: As much a long shot as White. Haliburton stands below - or well below - Herro in every statistical area except assists (8.8 per game). His scoring average (17.8) and shooting percentages (44.4 overall and 35.7 on threes) don’t measure up to several other candidates in a conference loaded with qualified guards.

Defensive performance is more difficult to quantify than offensive output. But among the aforementioned candidates, White has the best defensive field goal percentage against; he’s holding the player he’s guarding to 40.9 percent shooting.

The numbers for the others: Mitchell at 44.7, Cunningham at 44.8, Haliburton at 46.0, Maxey at 46.5, Garland at 46.6, Lillard at 47.1, Young at 48.0, Herro at 48.9, Brunson at 49 and Ball at 49.6.

If Cunningham and Garland get the two required backup guard spots, Herro must hope that coaches not only use at least one of the two non-positional slots on a guard but also hope that he gets the nod over Young, Lillard, Maxey and Ball.