Heat entering yet another important week in playoff race: ‘It’s like our March madness’

The Miami Heat will spend the final three weeks of the regular season working to avoid the play-in tournament. This is not where the Heat expected or wanted to be at this point with just nine regular-season games left on the schedule, but it’s the reality it created for itself.

“Nothing about this season is easy and I’m embracing that it’s not going to be easy,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said following Sunday night’s 112-100 win over the Pistons in Detroit. “And I told that to the team, you have to embrace this right now. This is just the path for this team. It doesn’t mean that it’s a negative thing. Just wrap your minds around that, embrace it, take on this challenge and we’ll get ready for a massively important game on Wednesday.”

It’s actually a massively important week for the Heat in its push to finish as a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference in order to avoid the play-in tournament.

The seventh-place Heat only has two games on its schedule this week, but they are against the teams immediately ahead of Miami in the East standings. The Heat’s quick but critical two-game homestand includes matchups against the fifth-place New York Knicks on Wednesday and sixth-place Brooklyn Nets on Saturday.

The No. 7 Heat (39-34) entered Monday one game behind the No. 6 Nets (39-32) and 3.5 games behind the No. 5 Knicks (42-30). New York will be difficult to catch this late in the schedule, but Brooklyn has helped make the sixth spot a realistic possibility for Miami with three straight losses.

“We know that we put ourselves super behind the eight ball,” Heat guard Kyle Lowry said. “But that’s professional basketball. That’s just the season that we’ve been a part of.”

Even after all the ups and downs that have led to a league-leading 51 clutch games (one that has a margin of five points or fewer inside the final five minutes of the fourth quarter) and an NBA single-season record-tying 24 victories by five points or fewer this season, the Heat still finds itself with an opportunity to qualify for the playoffs without needing to take part in the play-in tournament.

The Heat knows it will need to be close to perfect down the stretch of the regular season to pull it off, though.

The good news is the Heat will have some control of its own fate with two games remaining against the Knicks (Wednesday in Miami and March 29 in New York) and one game remaining against the Nets (Saturday in Miami).

The tiebreaker with the Knicks is still up for grabs, but the Nets have already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Heat by winning the first two meetings in the teams’ three-game regular-season series. That means Miami is essentially two games behind Brooklyn since the Heat doesn’t hold the tiebreaker edge.

Even if Brooklyn goes 5-6 over its final 11 regular-season games, the Heat would need to close with a 6-3 record over its final nine games to pass the Nets. And if Brooklyn finishes the regular season even better than 5-6, that would force Miami to be even closer to perfect in its final nine games.

“It’s like our March madness, our April madness. It really is,” Spoelstra said. “I see the similarities right now. Every game is a must-win. And if you’re a competitor, you have to love this. Maybe not exactly where we are and how we got here. It doesn’t matter.

“If you’re a competitor and you want to be tested and have an opportunity to conquer teams and opportunities, this is what it’s all about. Right now, opportunities are just right there in front of us. Now we have to dig in and roll up our sleeves and we’re going to have to compete and fight for it, but the opportunities are there. That’s all you can ask for at this time of the year.”

Through statistical analysis, FiveThirtyEight projects the Heat to finish the regular season as a play-in tournament team as the seventh seed in the East with a 44-38 record.

Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report also projects the Heat to close the regular season as a play-in team as the East’s seventh seed with a 43-39 record, giving Miami just a 26.8 percent chance of finishing as a top-six seed from where it currently stands.

“At this point, we are where we are and we got to move forward. The past is the past,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said. “Just continue to stick to our game plans game in and game out and we’ll put ourselves and set ourselves up for success going into the playoffs. Obviously, we want to be a top-six seed. That’s the goal and just got to continue to work the game, stick with the process and we’ll be alright.”

Seventh place is very likely the worst Miami will finish in the East standings.

The Heat entered Monday three games ahead of the eighth-place Atlanta Hawks, 3.5 games ahead of the ninth-place Toronto Raptors and 4.5 games ahead of the 10th-place Chicago Bulls.

The play-in tournament takes place during the nearly week-long window between the regular season and the start of the playoffs, beginning April 11 and ending April 14. The seventh- through 10th-place teams compete for the final two playoffs seeds in each conference.

How is the play-in tournament structured?

The No. 7 seed in each conference hosts the No. 8 seed in one of the play-in games. The winner of this matchup in each conference earns the seventh playoff seed.

The No. 9 seed in each conference hosts the No. 10 seed in another play-in game. The loser of this matchup in each conference is eliminated from playoff contention, and the winner of this matchup in each conference will go on the road to take on the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game for the right to the eighth playoff seed.

The teams with the seventh-highest and eighth-highest winning percentages in each conference will each have two opportunities to win one game to earn a playoff spot. The teams with the ninth-highest and 10th-highest winning percentages in each conference each has to win two consecutive games to earn a playoff spot.

“We’re just trying to win as many as we can and then we’ll see where we end up,” Heat wing Jimmy Butler said. “And no matter where we end up, we’re expected to win.”

The Heat returned to Miami from Detroit early Monday morning and took the rest of Monday as a rest day. The Heat is expected to return to the practice court at Miami-Dade Arena on Tuesday before opening its ultra-important homestand on Wednesday.

“As long as we win, I think we’re going to be alright, no matter what place we’re in,” Butler said, “whether we’re in the play-in, whether we’re the eight seed against the one. As long as you win, I don’t think you have too much to worry about.”