What the Heat didn’t see coming. And how it has affected the on-court product

The Heat finds itself in a difficult spot — not bad enough to secure a high draft pick, but likely not good enough to win an NBA title.

Much of this is the byproduct of its own decisions. And there has been some bad luck in play; if the Heat’s top players hadn’t missed so many games last season, perhaps Miami would have been a fourth seed and had favorable matchups early against Cleveland or Orlando, or even the Pacers or injury-depleted Bucks.

But they have also been badly hurt by NBA trends — and new rules — that they couldn’t have necessarily envisioned when some of these decisions were made. Among them:

▪ Tyler Herro’s unlikely-to-be-earned incentives:

When the Heat included improbable incentives in Herro’s four-year extension, it had no idea that the new NBA labor agreement would count some of those incentives — even if never met — on a team’s tax and cap ledger.

As a result, the Heat has been forced to add another $2.5 million to Herro’s $29 million cap number. That’s damaging, because it will prevent the Heat from adding a 15th player without exceeding the second apron, something the team said that it has no intention of doing this offseason.

Though Herro’s incentives are unlikely to be earned, that distinction doesn’t matter under terms of the new labor deal.

Herro would pocket an extra $1 million for winning MVP, $1 million for winning Defensive Player of the Year or $1 million for making All-NBA first or second teams. He would make an additional $500,000 for making the All-NBA third team.

Of those incentives, $2.5 million count on the Heat’s cap, whether he earns them or not.

It’s a ridiculous stipulation in the new labor deal, and no team could have seen that coming. But for Miami, it’s now the difference between adding a 15th standard-contract player and not being able to sign one.

▪ Free agency is becoming a less common way to improve your team:

Aside from a few isolated examples (Paul George this summer, Fred Van Vleet last summer), more players are opting to sign extensions and then force their way out, as opposed to becoming free agents and signing into cap space.

In fact, when George signed with the 76ers last week, he became the first max player this decade to sign with a new team as a free agent.

The Heat’s post Shaquille O’Neal-era success has been mostly the result of seizing opportunities in free agency; the team created the cap room for LeBron James and Chris Bosh (sign-and-trades were done to give them more money) and then executed a sign-and-trade for Jimmy Butler.

The move away from free agency for top players — George aside — leaves the Heat more dependent on other teams to work with them to improve. For the Heat, that has made building a championship team more difficult than it was during the Big 3 era.

No longer can the Heat horde cap space and rely on the South Florida weather and nightlife, and lack of state income taxes, to lure players. No longer can Pat Riley toss his rings on a table and convince a player to sign into the Heat’s space.

That’s what the Heat excelled at, and that’s no longer the common way to build teams.

It’s important to note that the organization has shown that it can acquire top players in trades outside free agency --- from Tim Hardaway to Alonzo Mourning to O’Neal to Goran Dragic. Miami’s next big move likely will need to come via the trade market.

For most NBA stars, the new model is securing the bag from a team, even if you’re not sure if you want to play there or elsewhere. And then force your way out when it suits you.

It’s a trend that no team necessarily could have seen coming five years ago.

▪ The increasing volume of first-round picks required for most trades:

At the start of the decade, nobody would have thought that the going rate for fringe third-team All NBA players — or borderline All-Stars — would be a full handful of first-round draft picks.

But Minnesota reset that market two years ago by trading five first-rounders to Utah for Rudy Gobert. Last month, New York dealt five first-rounders for Mikal Bridges, who has never been an All-Star.

The Heat, meanwhile, hasn’t been able to create nearly that much draft inventory, largely because:

A). It doesn’t believe in rebuilding or tanking, which often is necessary to build a treasure chest of first-round picks. The Knicks and 76ers horded picks, and it hasn’t gotten either team out of the second round in many years.

B). Miami needed to send a first-round pick to the Clippers in the 2019 Butler sign-and-trade. That pick was then flipped to OKC for George days later.

C). Because Miami gave Charlotte a first-round pick for Terry Rozier in January, for better or worse.

and D). because the Heat insisted both of those first-round picks (in the Butler and Rozier trades) were lottery protected for one year.

But here’s the trouble with D: While it’s defensible (and prudent) that the Heat would ask for lottery protections, those protections prevent the Heat from trading more than one future first-round pick because picks cannot be traded in consecutive years. And because the 2027 first-rounder due Charlotte is protected — and thus might need to be conveyed in 2028 — that precludes the Heat from trading its 2029 first-round pick.

Picks can only be traded seven years out, meaning Miami can deal only its 2030 first-round pick or its 2031 first-round pick, but not both.

The first-rounder due OKC was supposed to convey in 2023 or 2024, but the Heat and Thunder amended it as a way for the Heat to gain flexibility that Miami ultimately never used.

Now let’s be clear: These aren’t excuses for the Heat, on paper, falling behind a handful of other Eastern Conference teams. But these reasons also help explain some of the challenges now facing the franchise.