Should Heat continue to remove a key option from consideration? The case to reassess

The Heat loathes rebuilding about as much as South Florida drivers loathe fighting I-95 rush hour traffic.

But if there were ever a time that the Heat could justify taking a step back with the hope of a better future, wouldn’t this be it?

With the Heat seemingly stuck in NBA purgatory — good enough to make the playoffs, not nearly good enough to win a title -- is management’s desire to bypass a soft rebuild short-sighted?

According to people familiar with the team’s thinking, the Heat still believes that this group — spearheaded by Jimmy Butler - can be a contender if healthy. Management knows more help is needed to improve the chances of a fourth long playoff run in six years but does not believe that an overhaul is necessary.

Barring a change of heart, the Heat will enter training camp with Butler on its roster, even knowing that he intends to become a free agent next July. Miami also hopes that an appealing trade opportunity arises to help supplement Butler and Bam Adebayo.

But if the first three months of next season go poorly, there will be another decision to make — trading Butler or risk losing him next summer.

So the question can be synthesized to this: Should the Heat give the Butler/Adebayo core another chance in November, December and January — and wait to see if another key player can be added in a trade (not involving Butler or Adebayo) before the Feb. 6 trade deadline — before deciding what to do long-term with Butler?

Or is now the time the Heat should consider a Butler trade?

It’s not a clear-cut decision because of Butler’s greatness and because what he has achieved here — without an elite scorer by his side — has exceeded any reasonable expectations. I also can understand the Heat’s preference to wait to see if a star on another team asks out in the next seven months.

But the view here is to consider a Butler trade this summer. That doesn’t mean automatically dealing him. But it does mean canvassing the market and determining what teams would be willing to offer.

The Heat has been reluctant to give Butler the multiyear contract that he initially sought in May. That would mean a salary of $54.3 million in 2025-26 and $58.6 million in 2026-27.

If Butler has a poor season or misses significant time with injury, he could exercise his player option for $52.4 million in 2025-26. But that’s not his intention going into the season, according to The Athletic.

If the Heat isn’t convinced about giving Butler a lucrative extension now, what could possibly happen in the next 10 months to convince them otherwise?

At 34, will he suddenly become more durable, less prone to injuries?

Is it reasonable to expect Butler, at 34, to recapture his 2020, 2022 and 2023 playoff magic?

If the answer is “no,” then why not at least consider the alternative path: trading Butler for a young player, expiring contracts and several draft picks that would facilitate a trade when the next star asks out?

Let’s face facts:

The Celtics are significantly better than Miami, while the Knicks and 76ers are clearly better after adding Mikal Bridges and Paul George.

Indiana, Cleveland, Orlando and Milwaukee all finished ahead of the Heat last season and can all make the case they’re better than Miami, as well. That’s seven teams arguably ahead of the Heat.

Now let’s be clear: Giving away Butler as a diminished asset, for pennies on the dollar, would be a mistake. He will be motivated to be at his best next season in what’s setting up as a contract year.

But if there’s a legitimately attractive offer, why would the Heat not consider it if efforts to significantly improve the roster prove fruitless in the weeks ahead? If anything, the urgency to determine what Butler could fetch in a trade should be heightened by his plans to play out his contract and become a free agent next July.

Would his value be higher at the Feb. 6 trade deadline than now? Possible, but that’s a gamble. There’s also a risk he could sustain a significant injury that would torpedo his trade value.

What can’t be fully determined is this: Was age/tread on the tires the overriding factor in Butler shooting just 44 percent on drives last season (seventh worst in the NBA among players with at least 250 field-goal attempts) and 59 percent on layups and dunks last season — declines from the previous season, when he shot 52 percent on drives and 63 percent on layups/dunks? The lift lessened, clear to anyone with eyes. The question is whether that will reverse itself after his longest offseason since 2021.

Butler has played in 52, 57, 64 and 60 games in his four full 82-game seasons with the Heat. Expecting more as he enters his mid-30s seems wishful thinking.

And expecting a fragile team to suddenly become a healthy team also appears wishful thinking.

Here’s another way to frame it: With Butler on the team, Miami looks like a seventh or eighth seed. Without him, they look like a ninth or 10th seed, because Detroit, Washington, Chicago, Charlotte, Brooklyn and to an extent, Toronto, are rebuilding.

So if the probable outcome is likely the play-in tournament regardless, why not try to parlay Butler into assets before he leaves or further declines?

The Heat has long believed that tanking doesn’t work, that it’s foolhardy to sacrifice a couple seasons for the hope of landing high picks and building for a better tomorrow.

But that’s not what we’re suggesting here.

What we’re proposing is something more nuanced: Immediately begin discreet information-gathering on the market for Butler and what he could command in a trade. If a team proposes something tempting -- and if all opportunities to significantly improve the roster in other ways prove fruitless over the weeks ahead -- be ready to pounce on a Butler trade before training camp.

What would be tempting, in our view? A deal that includes a good young player and also could serve to restock the Heat’s first-round pick arsenal, so that Miami can pounce on the next young All Star that becomes available on the trade market.

Trading Butler this summer would be complicated by the fact that he isn’t planning to sign an extension with anyone. But that shouldn’t eliminate a trade market; if a team that wants Butler has an understanding that he would be willing to play for them, trading for him would, in many cases, be easier than signing him in free agency. (As we noted this week, no contender currently has the $50 million in cap space needed to sign him to a near-max-deal next summer.)

If the Heat were to gauge the trade marker for Butler, and Butler discovers that, perhaps he would react poorly. It’s impossible to say, because of his unique personality. But it’s a risk that Miami needs to take.

When you’ve been a play-in team for two years, nothing should be off the table. And rebuilding shouldn’t be considered beneath the Heat. Heck, much of the fan base likely would understand if the Heat took a step back if the long-term plan were clearly articulated.

By removing a rebuild from consideration, the Heat is unnecessarily limiting its options, giving one more shot to a core that doesn’t necessarily deserve it.