Happy Hour: Making a wild projection about what happens at Phoenix

Is it us, or is there a lack of organic excitement about the three races at Phoenix this weekend?

With the Chase in all three of NASCAR’s series now, the sanctioning body is certainly giddy that one point separates the cutoff line for the final four at Homestead in each series. But are fans?

Now that it’s the third year of the elimination Chase format in the Cup Series, fans are used to the system generating artificial excitement. And while Ryan Newman’s bump-and-run of Kyle Larson in 2014 is a memorable moment, the most memorable Phoenix moment is from 2012 when Clint Bowyer went on a garage sprint after getting crashed by Jeff Gordon.

It’s hard to watch that replay and not think that the circumstances that led to it can’t be replicated again. Gordon was able to crash Bowyer because NASCAR didn’t call a caution after he slid into the wall and limped around the track. It feels preposterous to believe NASCAR wouldn’t be that slow on the caution trigger in 2016.

But back to this year. Here’s how the points standings look heading into the final race of the third round in the Cup Series:

Joey Logano 4,074 points
Kyle Busch, 4,074 points
Matt Kenseth, 4,073 points
Denny Hamlin, 4,072 points
Kevin Harvick, 4,056 points
Kurt Busch, 4,040 points

We’re going to go out on a sturdy limb and predict Harvick wins his sixth Phoenix race in the last seven at the track. A Harvick win would mean one other driver would join Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards and him in the final four.

Given Busch, Hamlin, Kenseth and Logano are pretty even at Phoenix since the track is repaved, we’ll go with Hamlin simply on the basis of our pre-Chase prediction. No flip-flopping here.

If you missed it earlier today, the 28-year-old Scott said he was going to stop driving after the season and spend more time with his family. He’s in an enviable position. His family has two big businesses — Albertson’s grocery stores and a resort in Idaho — so he has the luxury to focus on something else now and potentially climb the family’s corporate ladder.

But caution clock jokes are a bit cruel, even if Scott had a propensity for crashing. He didn’t do that reputation any favors by getting caught up in a crash (that happened ahead of him) at Texas on Sunday night.

There is no competition.

After Sam Hornish Jr. departed the then-No. 9 car in 2015, Richard Petty Motorsports admitted it would be looking for a driver that brought sponsorship to the team as Hornish ran an unfunded car for part of the season.

You have to think that a funded driver is option No. 1. And after that, from a financial perspective, leasing the charter for a season has a strong argument for No. 2. RPM wouldn’t want to lose money just to field a second car, especially given that it’s having to play catch-up from a poor 2016 season next year.

Is a temporary one-car team feasible? Yes, but there are ramifications to that too. The team would be forced to have cutbacks in personnel.

Austin Dillon’s team hinted at Phoenix retribution against Kevin Harvick after Dillon hit the wall at Texas and was unhappy with the driver of the No. 4 car.

We all know that heat-of-the-moment comments in NASCAR come true more often than not. Let’s get it on record — we don’t think the No. 3 team is going to do anything. And we wouldn’t be surprised if inaction is encouraged before Sunday’s race by NASCAR officials, even if it’s in a vague warning in the drivers’ meeting. But in a hypothetical world where Dillon takes revenge on Harvick, the potential consequences are incredibly intriguing.

Kenseth got suspended two races for crashing Joey Logano last year at Martinsville. A crash of Harvick would be even worse than crashing Logano. While Logano had two more chances to win in the third round in 2015, this is Harvick’s last stand. He’s toast with a bad finish at Phoenix.

So by the 2015 standards, a two-race suspension would be in order. But there’s just one more race left in the season after Phoenix. Is a carryover suspension realistic? Dillon’s already out of the Chase, so a points penalty has limited impact.

Picking a favorite at Homestead is probably going to be impossible. But Edwards has been really fast on 1.5-mile tracks in the Chase and Homestead will use the same type of left-side tires that were on the cars at Texas. Where he won.

Well, NASCAR’s always had a points system. So racing for a title isn’t going to disappear if the Chase does.

And heck, the Chase could change for 2017. NASCAR has changed the playoffs every three years or so since the Chase was implemented in 2004. And since this is the third year of the current Chase format, well, the pattern is due.

But, but, but no politics.

Maybe everyone will get a free Sprint Cup Series car? We can all dream.

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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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