What happened when we simulated the 2024 Cup playoffs 10,000 times

The NASCAR playoffs are finally upon us, and it‘s officially an all-out sprint from here to the Cup Series championship for the 16 drivers whose title hopes are still alive.

To help sort out who has the edge amidst all the postseason madness — as well as what each driver needs most in the playoffs — let‘s turn once again to our race simulation system. As a refresher, this method looks at a driver‘s previous performance (both overall and at each specific track type) to estimate their probability of finishing in each spot each race, then uses those numbers to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times, tracking how often every playoff participant advances at each stage of the postseason and, ultimately, wins the championship.

Here‘s the overall big picture of the championship from those 10,000 simulations:

Unsurprisingly, Kyle Larson is the championship favorite, as befits the best driver in the world. But it‘s worth pointing out that, in the vast majority of simulations (78 percent), Larson didn‘t win his second career Cup Series title. Most of the time when that happened, the crown went to either Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, William Byron or Denny Hamlin … but they still left some daylight for the rest of the playoff field to make their own bids. So let‘s run through each playoff driver‘s path to victory, with a focus on which races have the biggest impact on their odds of becoming a champion.

Kyle Larson

What he needs in the Round of 16: Keep the ship steady.

With a 35-point cushion in the playoff standings and a greater than 95 percent chance of making the Round of 12, Larson is in good shape as long as he cranks out some decent finishes at Atlanta, Watkins Glen and Bristol. In simulations where he finishes 30th or better in two of the three races in Round 1, Larson advances 99 percent of the time — and even in sims where he has just one finish of 30th or better out of the three races, he has an 84 percent chance of moving on. The only thing to really avoid is finishing 31st or worse in every race of the round, which would give Larson just a 19 percent chance to advance. Keep an eye on Bristol in particular for one of the sport‘s top short-track racers: Larson‘s average finish of 14.5 at the Last Great Colosseum in simulations where he advances falls to 34.6 in the sims where he doesn‘t.

Looking ahead: As the king of the intermediates, Larson has to take care of business at Kansas in the Round of 12 and Las Vegas in the Round of 8 — both places where he‘s won multiple times before. In simulations where he‘s active in the third round, Larson‘s championship odds rise to 29 percent when he finishes top 10 at Las Vegas, but fall to 17 percent when he finishes 31st or worse.

Tyler Reddick

What he needs in the Round of 16: Take full advantage of the road course.

Similar to Larson, Reddick — who won the Regular Season Championship — mainly needs to keep the disasters to a minimum if he wants to advance out of Round 1. He makes the second round 95 percent of the time when he finishes 30th or better in two of the next three races, and 61 percent of the time even if he does it once, but three finishes of 31st or worse would give Reddick just a 3 percent chance of advancing. Reddick‘s biggest pivot-point in the first round is Watkins Glen, which isn‘t surprising for arguably the top road-course driver in the sport (certainly among full-timers). Reddick has a field-high 11 percent chance of winning there on Sept. 15, and a 40 percent chance of finishing in the top five.

Looking ahead: Reddick will get another chance to show off his road-racing skills at the Charlotte Roval in Round 2, but the most pivotal race along his path to the Championship 4 comes in the third round at Homestead-Miami — a place he‘s never won before, but has three top fives in four career starts. When Reddick advances to the Round of 8 and finishes top 10 at Homestead, he wins the championship 25 percent of the time (versus just 12 percent when he finishes 21st or worse).

Christopher Bell

What he needs in the Round of 16: Keep running strong at Bristol.

There‘s a case to be made that Bell has been the best all-around driver in the Cup Series, in terms of his versatility across every type of track. He‘s the only full-time driver with an Adjusted Points+ Index at least 60 percent better than the Cup Series average at ovals, short tracks, road courses and drafting tracks. So it‘s hard to nail down a particular place as a make-or-break track for Bell. But if we had to pick one, Bristol seems to carry extra importance in the simulations — Bell‘s odds of advancing out of the Round of 16 rise to 99.7 percent when he has a top-10 finish there, while they fall to 84.3 percent when he finishes 31st or worse. And Bell has to like those odds; he‘s been among the top 10 in each of his past three Bristol outings.

Looking ahead: If he makes the Round of 8, Bell should circle Martinsville on the calendar. In the simulations where he‘s still active in the title hunt by then, he has a 22 percent chance of winning the championship when he nabs a top 10 there, literally double his chances when he finishes outside the top 30 (11 percent). And both scenarios could happen, given how all over the place Bell has been at the Paperclip in his career.

William Byron

What he needs in the Round of 16: Capitalize at The Glen and don‘t mess up Bristol.

Because Byron won at Daytona (the ultimate drafting track) earlier this year and has won multiple times at Atlanta since its reconfiguration, we might think the opening race of the playoffs is the most important to Byron‘s chances of moving on. However, pack racing being what it is at Atlanta now, Byron has better odds among the favorites at Bristol and The Glen (where he is an underrated road-course ace). In simulations where Byron had a top 10 at either track, he had a 99 percent chance to advance to the Round of 12, compared with 72 percent when he finished outside the top 30 at either track (and 35 percent when disaster struck at both races). Byron can survive a chaotic day at Atlanta, but he needs to run well at the other two tracks to feel good about his path to the second round.

Looking ahead: Title-wise, Byron‘s highest-leverage track along the road to the Championship 4 is Martinsville in the Round of 8. If he‘s still in the title hunt by then, his odds of winning the Cup Series crown are 19 percent when he finishes in the top 10, but they‘re only 8 percent when he finishes outside the top 20. But Byron also has to get there first, which is where the Roval comes in during the Round of 12. In sims where Byron is still active that round, his odds of advancing to the Round of 8 are 95 percent when he finishes top 10 at Charlotte, but only 56 percent when he finishes 31st or worse there.

Denny Hamlin

What he needs in the Round of 16: Dominate at Bristol, baby!

Still seeking that first championship, Hamlin hits the Round of 16 ranked sixth in the standings after closing the regular season with finishes either in the top 10 or 30th or worse in each of his last seven races. Now he‘s looking at a first-round slate that isn‘t exactly the most favorable for him — starting with a drafting track and a road course, both track types where Hamlin has been surprisingly mediocre recently. This season, he had an Adjusted Pts+ index 56 percent worse than average at road/street courses and 68 percent worse at plate/drafting tracks, which explains why Hamlin‘s early advancement odds are the lowest (82 percent) out of the top seven on our list of favorites. However, Hamlin‘s saving grace in Round 1 is Bristol, where he‘s the second-leading active winner with four victories. In our simulations, Hamlin advances 94 percent of the time when he finishes 20th or better at Bristol, but only 53 percent of the time when he finishes outside the top 30.

Looking ahead: Faced with a similar breakdown of track types in the second round (an oval, a plate track and a road course), Hamlin needs a strong showing at Kansas to stabilize his chances of advancing to the Round of 8. And then, Martinsville is the most important race for his Championship 4 fate; assuming he is active in the playoffs by then, Hamlin wins the title 21 percent of the time when he goes top 10 at the historic half-mile track where he‘s a five-time winner, versus just 9 percent when he‘s outside the top 20.

Chase Elliott

What he needs in the Round of 16: Tap into that old road-course magic.

With 85 percent advancement odds overall, Elliott falls into the group that mainly needs to avoid catastrophe in the Round of 16. If he has one or fewer races where he finishes 31st or worse this round, Elliott has a 92 percent chance of advancing; if he has two or more of those, his odds of advancing drop to 31 percent. But the most important place to watch the No. 9 might be Watkins Glen, where his odds of advancing are 97 percent when he finishes in the top 10 and just 61 percent when he falls outside the top 30. Once upon a time, Elliott was NASCAR‘s premier road-course driver, but he hasn‘t won at one of those since Road America in July 2021. Now would be a good time for him to revisit the form that gave him his first career Cup Series win at The Glen back in 2018.

Looking ahead: Similarly, a successful Elliott title run usually sees him take advantage of the Roval in Round 2, even if it runs somewhat differently than other road courses. When he‘s still active in the Round of 12, Elliott has an average finish of 12.5 at Charlotte in simulations where he advances again, versus 24.5 in the sims where he doesn‘t. And Homestead is a pivotal race in the Round of 8; Elliott wins the title 16 percent of the time when he scores a top 10 there, versus just 6 percent when he finishes 21st or worse.

Ryan Blaney

What he needs in the Round of 16: End his recent slump.

Blaney is the last of the group of drivers on our list with at least an 80 percent chance to get out of Round 1 (and, relatedly, at least a five percent chance of winning the championship). After a midseason heater that saw him win twice and finish in the top 11 seven times in eight races, he‘s gone cold over the past three races with a trio of finishes 18th or worse. Another three straight mediocre races (say, 21st or worse) would give him just an 11 percent chance of advancing to Round 2. But by the same token, keeping those finishes to a minimum would help Blaney keep cruising: In simulations where he scores one or more top 20s in the next three races, he advances 90 percent of the time.

Looking ahead: As a relatively balanced driver by track type, Blaney doesn‘t offer a huge number of make-or-break tracks where he absolutely has to do well or else his championship hopes evaporate. However, it‘s always worth watching him at Talladega, where he‘s a three-time winner — including the race that stamped his ticket to the Round of 8 last year. In simulations where he‘s still active next round, Blaney wins the title 10 percent of the time when he finishes top 10 there, versus just five percent when he drops outside the top 20.

Brad Keselowski

What he needs in the Round of 16: Get a top 10 (or two).

Keselowski is on slightly shakier ground than the drivers above, with a greater than one-in-four chance of not advancing past Round 1. However, he can remedy that fairly easily with a strong finish (or two) at any of the playoffs‘ opening three tracks. In simulations where Brad K. scores one top 10, he advances 83 percent of the time, and when he has a pair of those finishes, he moves on 99.9 percent of the time. Combine that with his 92 percent advancement odds if he finishes 30th or better each race, and Keselowski doesn‘t have a terrible formula for advancement.

Looking ahead: By championship odds, the most important track in Keselowski‘s quest for a second career title (and first since 2012) is Las Vegas in the Round of 8. He‘s been great on ovals this year, and he has a 14 percent chance of winning the championship conditional on a top 10 there, versus just a four percent chance when he finishes 21st or worse. And of course, don‘t discount the importance of Talladega in the Round of 12 for this six-time winner at NASCAR‘s most feared track.

Joey Logano

What he needs in the Round of 16: Get the most out of Bristol.

Logano has a version of the same dilemma as Denny above: He‘s been pretty subpar on both road courses (21 percent worse than average) and drafting tracks (66 percent worse) this season, but really good on short tracks (68 percent better), so his Round of 16 chances hinge on getting points at Bristol. When Joey finishes in the top 10 there, his odds of advancing rise to 92 percent, from 71 percent overall; when he finishes outside the top 30, those odds fall to 41 percent. While he also needs to do well at Atlanta and Watkins Glen — his odds of advancing are 45 percent if he has a disastrous finish at either of those tracks, too — a good run at Bristol would do wonders for Logano‘s hopes of sticking around in the playoffs.

Looking ahead: We always think of Phoenix as a huge advantage for Logano in the current format, with the place he‘s won at three times playing host to the title-clinching race. But getting there proved to be a problem last season. And the make-or-break tracks to determine that after Round 1 this year are, of course, the short track at Martinsville in the Round of 8, plus the trio of ovals where he‘s won before: Kansas (3 times), Las Vegas (3 times) and Homestead (once).

Martin Truex Jr.

What he needs in the Round of 16: Cut out the terrible finishes.

A year after being crowned regular season champ, Truex entered his last playoffs as a full-time driver by backing his way in. The 2017 Cup Series champion finished no better than 24th in any of his last five races, including a second-to-last placement at Darlington in a race that determined who made the postseason cut. Needless to say, Truex must turn this trend around ASAP. In simulations where he has two or more finishes of the same ilk (24th or worse) in the next three races, Truex advances just 19 percent of the time. But the good news is that he can be in decent shape by avoiding those bad runs. In sims where he had only one of these poor finishes or fewer, he advanced 81 percent of the time — including 97 percent when he was better than 24th each race.

Looking ahead: Truex had a good season on the short tracks (48 percent better than average), so Martinsville is a race to circle in the Round of 8, and the championship vibes remain strong at Homestead. But to get there with his chances intact, he‘s going to have to do well at the Roval; Truex advances out of the Round of 12 at a 75 percent clip when he finishes top 10 at Charlotte, versus just 27 percent when he finishes outside the top 20.

Alex Bowman

What he needs in the Round of 16: Bowl them over at The Glen.

It sometimes gets lost that Bowman is a really good road-racer. He owns one of the best average finishes at road courses of any active driver (14.4), and he has never been below-average by adjusted Pts+ index on road courses since joining Hendrick Motorsports full-time in 2018. This year, he won at the Chicago Street Course — his first career road/street victory — and was the Cup Series‘ best regular driver on that track type, with a 261 adjusted Pts+ index. So of course Watkins Glen stands out as an important track for Bowman‘s chances of advancing. In simulations where he has a top 10 at The Glen, Bowman moves on 91 percent of the time; when he finishes in the 20s, that number falls to 54 percent, and dips further to 42 percent when he drops outside the top 30.

Looking ahead: Along the same lines, the Charlotte Roval is huge for Bowman in the Round of 12. His average finish there when he advances to the Round of 8 is 11.4, versus 22.0 when he doesn‘t advance. And in the Round of 8, Bowman is a threat at Las Vegas — where he won in 2022 and would see his title odds boost to 7 percent with a top 10 this year.

Ty Gibbs

What he needs in the Round of 16: Steady road-racing — and maybe a bonus at Atlanta.

Gibbs is similar to Bowman in his road-racing acumen, with six top 10s — and only two finishes outside the top 12 — in nine road-course starts since 2023. So Watkins Glen will clearly be on Gibbs‘ radar this round: His advancement odds jump to 87 percent with a top 10 at The Glen, versus 32 percent if he finishes outside the top 30. However, Atlanta offers Gibbs an even greater chance to help his odds of moving on. In the simulations where he finishes top 10 there, Gibbs makes the second round 89 percent of the time. (Granted, that figure also drops to 41 percent when he finishes outside the top 30.)

Looking ahead: Naturally, the Roval will also be a big part of Gibbs‘ playoff playbook, just like with Bowman. Gibbs was third behind Bowman and Reddick in adjusted Pts+ index on road/street courses this season, an impressive 109 percent better than the Cup Series average. And then keep an eye on Gibbs at Homestead if his chances are still alive by then — a top 10 would boost his title odds to eight percent conditional on making it to the Round of 8.

Daniel Suárez

What he needs in the Round of 16: Rediscover his consistency.

Sitting 11th in the playoff standings, hovering right above the elimination line by a point, Suárez can‘t really afford many — if any — bad finishes from this point. If he has two or more finishes outside the top 20, he advances to the next round only 29 percent of the time; if he has one or more finish outside the top 30, he advances 41 percent of the time. Basically, Suárez can‘t have any clunkers, and he would also benefit greatly by a high finish or two. (In simulations where he scores at least one top 10 in the next three races, he advances 86 percent of the time.) The issue is whether Suárez can really count on that kind of thing after a regular season where he only had one stretch with consecutive top-10 finishes.

Looking ahead: The only track type where Suárez has been above-average over the past two seasons is at plate/drafting tracks, so Talladega is a key site for him in the second round. In the simulations where he made the Round of 8, Suárez had an average finish of 13.7 at ‘Dega, versus 23.6 in the sims where he was eliminated.

Chase Briscoe

What he needs in the Round of 16: Find his short-track skills.

A week removed from a playoff-clinching victory at Darlington, Briscoe immediately finds himself in rough shape with just a 60 percent chance to move on — second-worst among all playoff drivers. The problem is that none of the first-round tracks is especially well-suited to Briscoe, who was below average this season at road, short and drafting tracks. He was good on ovals (28 percent above average), to be sure, but the next oval on the calendar is Kansas in the Round of 12. The good news for Briscoe is that he was a lot better at short tracks (62 percent better than average) just a season ago, and he‘ll need to tap into that here. In simulations where he advances, Briscoe finishes at an average of 14.8 there, versus 24.1 when he doesn‘t. And when he scores a top 10, his odds of making the next round rise to 87 percent.

Looking ahead: Things get better for Briscoe if he‘s able to make it past the first round, as the schedule features more ovals where he has done better this season. When he finishes top 10 at Kansas, he has a 72 percent of advancing to the Round of 8.

Austin Cindric

What he needs in the Round of 16: Play to his strengths.

Cindric had a 79 adjusted Pts+ index during the regular season versus 106 for Briscoe — but Cindric has better odds of making it out of the Round of 16 (62 percent versus 60) because the track selection lines up better with his history. Throughout his career, Cindric has been far better at drafting tracks and road courses than at ovals and short tracks, so he‘ll get a couple of bites at the apple in Round 1 to try to take advantage of his strengths. If Cindric finishes in the top 10 at either Atlanta or Watkins Glen, his odds of making the second round rise to 89 percent, and leap further to 97 percent if he can place among the top 15 at both tracks. The odds of that happening are only 16 percent, but it‘s an example of how Cindric might be able to keep his title bid going despite an up-and-down season.

Looking ahead: The odds get a lot longer for Cindric after the Round of 16, but if he does make it through he‘ll get another boost at Talladega (plate track) and the Charlotte Roval (road course). In the simulations where Cindric advances through the first round and finishes top 10 at both Talladega and the Roval, he would have a 98 percent chance to make the Round of 8.

Harrison Burton

What he needs in the Round of 16: Drive the wheels off the No. 21.

With an adjusted Pts+ index of 55 during the regular season — meaning he was 45 percent worse than the average Cup Series driver — Burton supplanted Chris Buescher from 2016 as the worst playoff driver of the 16-car postseason era. His odds of advancing from the Round of 16 (44 percent) are an order of magnitude worse than anyone else in the field. But that doesn‘t mean it‘s impossible for him to move on … he just needs to have a string of uncharacteristically strong finishes. For instance, if Burton finishes top 10 at Atlanta, he would instantly see his odds of advancing rise to 79 percent. Doing the same instead at Bristol or Watkins Glen would see even greater rises (to 81 or 82 percent, respectively). While it couldn‘t be paired with two other horrible finishes, a strong run at one of the next three races would at least give Burton a solid chance to move on.

Looking ahead: Since Burton has such vanishingly small odds of advancing more than a round or so, much less winning the championship, I thought it might be fun to look at what happened in the three simulations (out of 10,000) in which he did win the title.

• In Sim No. 110, Burton won at Watkins Glen while Byron and Blaney were both eliminated in Round 1, then Hamlin and Elliott followed suit in Round 2 as Burton finished 16th at Kansas and 15th at Talladega. Burton made the Championship 4 over Bowman, Truex and Keselowski with an eighth-place run at Martinsville. Finally, he placed second at Phoenix as the rest of the contenders (Bell, Gibbs and Larson) finished outside the top 16.

• Sim No. 2,961 was less chaotic at first than Sim 110, as each of the top nine regular-season drivers advanced, but it also saw Briscoe, Burton and Bowman advancing (at the expense of Logano, Suárez and Truex), thanks in part to Burton finishing third at Bristol. Blaney and Keselowski dropped off in Round 2 as Burton won his way forward at Talladega; the Round of 8 saw a shakeup with Byron, Hamlin and Elliott eliminated as Burton held steady with finishes of 18th, 12th and 15th. In the championship race, Larson and Reddick ran outside the top 10, but Burton outdueled Bell (who was third) to finish second and claim the title.

• Finally, in Sim No. 7,558, Keselowski was the only member of the top 12 in pre-playoff points to exit in Round 1, opening the door for Burton with his seventh-place finish at Atlanta. There were some shockers in Round 2 as Bell, Reddick and Hamlin all fell by the wayside, but Burton finished 13th at Kansas and eighth at Talladega to move on. At the precipice of the Championship 4, Burton overcame a 24th-place finish at Vegas with a pair of top 10s at Homestead and Martinsville, and Byron dropped off following a trio of finishes outside the top 25. And in the title race, disaster struck Blaney, Elliott and Larson — none finished higher than 36th — leaving room for Burton to place 12th for the championship.

Clearly, a lot of fantastical things (though statistically possible ones, in 10,000 alternate universes) needed to happen in order for him to win the title. But yes, Harrison Burton: I‘m telling you there‘s a chance. Now let‘s see if any of those simulated universes — or the other 9,997, for that matter — end up playing out when the real cars hit the track.