What happened to Bijan Robinson? Arthur Smith's 4-minute answer led to more questions

The biggest question on every NFL fan's mind nowadays isn't who the best team in the league is. It's not who is leading the MVP race, or which team will earn the first overall draft pick. It's why in the world Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith refuses to use some of his best players.

The Falcons drafted three skill position players within the top-10 picks each of the previous three seasons, but Smith has refused to get any of them involved in his offense, despite each of them showing great potential in the limited volume they get. This year, when the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson eighth overall, fans and players everywhere assumed that Smith and the Falcons, who led the league in rushing attempts in 2022 behind one of the best O-lines in football, would be forced to give a generational prospect their fair share of the team's offense.

That has not been the case.

Despite Robinson showing dynamic potential every time he touches the ball, Smith continues to give the ball to anyone else in the most crucial situations. While any coach can get by on that strategy as long as their team is winning, the Falcons have lost two in a row to drop them below .500. The opposing quarterbacks in those losses? Joshua Dobbs and Will Levis. Not exactly who you want to lose to.

Yesterday, Smith was asked a pretty simple question during a press conference, "Why does Robinson not get touches in the red zone?"

This simple question prompted a four-minute, uninterrupted speech from Smith.

This is an over-explanation. People do this when they feel anxious or backed into a corner during a debate. It is very clear that Smith is hanging onto his ideology by a thread and is trying every desperate measure to get people to understand why he can't just give his best players opportunities to make plays. It should not take nearly five minutes to answer this question but the growing impatience of fans, players, and media alike is mounting and Smith is who they're pointing fingers at.

Is what Arthur Smith said true?

Smith's reiteration that his team is scoring on 50% of their red zone drives is true. He also claims that the figure isn't entirely accurate because two of the trips involved situational field goals to win the game, so actually the percentage is better than it appears. Regardless, he should not be happy about this figure.

• 50% redzone TD percentage ranks 19th in the NFL

• The Falcons average 3.1 redzone trips per game, which ranks 20th in the NFL

• Over their last three games, the Falcons have just a 40% redzone TD percentage, 28th in the NFL

• The Falcons lost two of those three games by one possession, so that 40% red zone TD percentage potentially cost them two wins.

While Smith's game plan may have worked at the beginning of the season, it's been tremendously bad as the season has worn on.

Smith's tendencies in Tennessee

Smith continues, touting himself, "Historically, if you're in the mid-to-high 60s you're usually leading the league. Some years when we were really good in Tennessee we were damn near 75%."

Smith is correct.

• In 2019, the Titans ranked first in red zone TD percentage (77.36%)

• In 2020, the Titans ranked second (74.24%)

You know why they did so well inside the 20 though? Because Smith loved giving the ball to his best player.

• Between 2019 and 2020, the Titans ran the ball in the red zone 169 times (8th-most in the NFL)

• The Titans led the league in rushing touchdowns during that span (40)

• Derrick Henry got the ball on 125 of those rushing attempts (74%; highest percentage in the NFL)

• Next most rushing attempts was Dalvin Cook (117; 55.7%)

Clearly, it worked wonders. The Titans were tied for the most rushing touchdowns of any team during that span, and were third in total touchdowns (90). So, what's changed? Has the NFL landscape shifted so drastically that giving the ball to a prolific runner has become less viable an option in the last three years? Doubtful.

Smith gave the ball to Henry a ton in short-yardage situations

Those same two years in Tennessee, the Titans loved to give Derrick Henry the ball in crucial short-yardage situations.

• On third and fourth downs with three or fewer yards to go, Henry was given the ball on 36 of the team's 69 rushing attempts (52.2%)

• The only other player with more than 10 was Ryan Tannehill (19) and more than a few of those were scrambles

• The Titans got first downs on 52 of their 69 rushing attempts in short yardage situations (75.4%)

• In similar situations, the Titans gained first downs on 36 of 63 pass attempts (57.1%) and one of those first downs was a pass by Henry

How are the 2023 Falcons faring in those stats?

• In 2023, the Falcons have achieved a first down on 29 of their 51 rushing attempts with three or fewer yards to go (56.9%).

• Tyler Allgeier has converted on 13 of his 23 rush attempts (56.5%)

• Bijan Robinson has converted on 11 of 17 (64.7%)

• Robinson is averaging 5.94 yards per carry in these situations; Allgeier is averaging 2.26

Later in his speech, Smith claims that Allgeier has been "pretty good" in short-yardage situations. Maybe 2.26 yards per carry is what Smith defines as good, but it's not close to Robinson's success.

"The ball is not going to go to every player every time"

About halfway through his shpeel, Smith offers this gem of a line as another reason why Robinson is not getting the ball as often as most people would like. The line is obviously true, but it also doesn't explain why his best players don't get the ball as much as his role players.

• The Falcons have run 89 plays in the red zone this season

• Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London have gotten the ball or have been targeted on just 28 of those plays

• Tyler Allgeier alone has gotten the ball or been the target on 28 of those plays

• The 28 plays where Robinson, Pitts, and London were involved have resulted in six touchdowns

• The 28 plays that have gone to Allgeier have resulted in three touchdowns

• When targeting Robinson, Pitts, or London in the redzone, the Falcons score on 21.4% of their plays

• Everyone else combines to score on 13.1% of the Falcons' redzone plays

• 42.9% of the Falcons' redzone touchdowns have come on the 31.4% of plays that have involved Robinson, London, or Pitts

"We have the right guys in the locker room"

Toward the end of Smith's lecture, he says that he doesn't like his team's record, but that he has the right guys in the locker room to turn the season around. He's absolutely right. He does have the players to turn this season around. He just keeps them on the bench. The Falcons have lost two straight games by one possession.

As stated earlier, the Falcons' red zone touchdown percentage over the last three weeks is an abysmal 40%. Something needs to change, because this offense has been atrocious in crucial situations as of late.

Will anything change?

Probably not. Smith mentions that Robinson is an option on a lot more plays than the stat sheet shows because the team loves to run RPOs (run-pass options) near the goal line and it's been an effective play. They just tend to pull it back and throw it. That might very well be the case, but it still doesn't explain why Allgeier gets 26 carries in the red zone to Robinson's nine.

This was a masterclass of answering the question without giving an answer from Smith. Sure, he tells us why Robinson hasn't gotten more carries in the red zone, but he doesn't tell us why Allgeier gets so many, aside from "he's good in short-yardage situations" which isn't even true.

Furthermore, there were a few times during his speech where Smith described plays that the Falcons might run near the goal line. He mentioned Jonnu Smith as a potential recipient of those plays three times. He mentioned Kyle Pitts once. Pitts is not the tight end that Arthur Smith thinks about at the goal-line, and if this press conference is any indication, that won't change any time soon.

When do the Falcons play next?

The Falcons play the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Cardinals have allowed the third-most rushing yards in the NFL (1158) and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (12).

Don't expect Robinson to take advantage. Expect Allgeier to get most of the carries and average under four yards per tote, just as he's done every week since Week 1. Expect Jonnu Smith to get more looks than Kyle Pitts.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Bijan Robinson's stats are hard for Falcons' Arthur Smith to explain